Geographical And Geopolitical Ramifications Of The Upper Siang Multipurpose Project In A Sino-Indian Border State

Eurasia Review  |  P. K. Balachandran

India's proposed 11,200-megawatt Upper Siang Multipurpose Project in Arunachal Pradesh is being positioned as a geostrategic safeguard against China's upstream Yarlung Tsangpo dam. New Delhi intends for the 14-billion-cubic-metre reservoir to protect downstream water sovereignty against potential unilateral water diversion or sudden releases by Beijing. This ambitious defensive strategy faces severe operational and physical constraints, given that the project is located in a highly seismic Himalayan zone prone to earthquakes and landslide-induced hazards.

The decade-long construction timeline leaves unfinished works highly vulnerable to upstream surges, a risk underscored by the catastrophic 2023 collapse of the Teesta III dam in Sikkim. Locally, the indigenous Adi communities, represented by the Adi Bane Kebang, are fiercely resisting the project due to the projected displacement of over 16 villages and the loss of ancestral lands. Consequently, critics are calling for an immediate pause to conduct independent basin-wide cumulative impact assessments before further construction surveys proceed.

Comment

Deploying the Upper Siang reservoir as a defensive hydrological shield against China's Yarlung Tsangpo cascade couples India's downstream flood control directly to Beijing's transboundary telemetry sharing. In the absence of binding bilateral water treaties, Indian engineers cannot reliably model the sudden-release scenarios required to safely manage the 14-billion-cubic-metre storage capacity. Furthermore, the vulnerability of temporary diversion works during the projected ten-year construction window invites targeted grey-zone exploitation along the Line of Actual Control. This operational exposure transforms the Brahmaputra's primary Indian channel into a zone of acute vulnerability during the critical decade before the dam achieves structural completion.

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