Trump administration signs a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia—and risks a Middle East arms race

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists | François Diaz-Maurin

The Trump administration has signed a landmark 30-year civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia, granting US companies like Westinghouse exclusive rights to build the kingdom's nuclear infrastructure. This controversial deal risks triggering a highly destabilising regional Middle East arms race by potentially allowing Riyadh to enrich uranium domestically without rigorous international oversight.

Historically, Washington conditioned nuclear technology transfers on the strict 'gold standard' established in the 2009 United Arab Emirates agreement, which permanently prohibits domestic enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing. By bypassing the International Atomic Energy Agency's Additional Protocol, this new framework undermines decades of global nonproliferation policy and may prompt regional neighbors like Turkey and the United Arab Emirates to renegotiate their own bilateral restrictions. While the White House intends to seek congressional approval within a ninety-day review window, President Trump recently declared the pact conditional on Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords, introducing a major diplomatic hurdle.

Comment

By offering Riyadh a pathway to domestic enrichment, Washington inadvertently triggers the review clause within the 2009 US-UAE 123 Agreement. Abu Dhabi legally reserved the right to renegotiate its 'gold standard' commitment if regional non-proliferation dynamics shifted, meaning the UAE could now demand reciprocal enrichment rights. This concession also weakens the diplomatic leverage of the IAEA Additional Protocol across the Middle East, as Turkey and Egypt may now resist future verification upgrades. Consequently, the integration of these nuclear concessions into the broader Abraham Accords framework risks decoupling security guarantees from strict multilateral oversight.

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