Can Kasapoğlu
Entering its third week, Operation Epic Fury has degraded the Islamic Republic’s strategic strike systems and suppressed, though not eliminated, its ballistic-missile launch capacity. Yet the campaign has not neutralized Iran’s true center of gravity: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Despite leadership losses, the IRGC’s doctrinal order of battle and kill chains remain operationally coherent. The Revolutionary Guards also retain powerful economic warfare escalation levers that are effective on a global scale, particularly Iran’s ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and the region’s water desalination infrastructure.
Below, Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a theory of victory for the ongoing war. He identifies the threats Iran still poses and the strategic gaps that the American campaign has yet to address, and outlines how to shape the conflict in a way that brings the United States and its allies closer to winning the fight—militarily and strategically.
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