Joe Keary, Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan & Linus Cohen
China’s defence and security presence beyond the Western Pacific is set to intensify over the next decade, expanding its access, influence and operational reach across the Indo-Pacific.
In the Southwest Pacific, Beijing is likely to build its position through security cooperation, infrastructure development and a more regularised presence, while activity across the Indian Ocean and Australia’s maritime approaches is likely to become more frequent, capable and strategically purposeful.
We are not likely to see sudden military breakthroughs or dramatic shows of force. Rather, Beijing has a deliberate, long-term strategy – one that prioritises persistence and gradual advantage. China is seeking to normalise its presence across the Indo-Pacific in ways that expand its freedom of action, complicate the calculations of others and incrementally shift the strategic balance in its favour.
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