The expiration of New START in February has eliminated treaty limits on major nuclear arsenals, raising serious concerns about a new arms race, particularly given China’s nuclear buildup. Despite the prudent need for immediate nuclear arms control talks, political will is currently lacking among the United States, Russia, and China.
Historically, arms control agreements have either halted existing arms races or extended prior frameworks, not prevented races from starting. While a new nuclear arms race is not yet underway, as the "reaction" phase is absent, the current structural conditions do not favor major arms control achievements. Consequently, the focus must shift to urgent risk reduction measures. New technologies like hypersonic glide weapons, AI in military planning, and anti-satellite/cyber weapons, combined with a complex, multi-sided strategic landscape involving the US, China, and Russia, and the China-India-Pakistan triangle, increase instability and escalation risks. Preventative risk reduction, such as crisis communication channels and mutual missile test notification, is crucial to address these rapid geopolitical crises.
No comments:
Post a Comment