8 June 2026

The Stockpile Gap: How America Can Secure the Strategic Materials It Needs to Win

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Jonathan E. Hillman, Ishaan Thakker

The United States launched Project Vault, a $12 billion initiative announced by President Donald Trump in February 2026, to secure critical minerals and protect American businesses from supply-chain disruptions and economic coercion. This program, supported by a $10 billion U.S. Export-Import Bank loan and nearly $2 billion from private investors, focuses on rare earth elements, aluminum, antimony, copper, germanium, silver, and zirconium.

America's existing National Defense Stockpile (NDS), a fraction of its historical size at $1.3 billion as of March 2023, would cover less than half of defense production needs during a conflict. To address these vulnerabilities, the U.S. should expand and modernize the NDS, establish a strategic resilience reserve (SRS) as proposed by Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Todd Young, and deepen collaboration with industry and allies. Challenges include industrial bottlenecks, the NDS's narrow mission for economic warfare, keeping pace with emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing, analytical gaps in planning, and geopolitical fragmentation in sourcing.

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