8 June 2026

How a monster ocean heatwave could fuel a super El Niño

The Bulletin | Mariana Bernardi Bif, Franz Philip Tuchen

An El Niño event is now over 80 percent likely by July, potentially making 2026 one of the hottest years on record. Concurrently, a 9,000-mile marine heatwave has formed in the North Pacific since late 2025. Scientists are concerned these extreme warming events could fuel a “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño, prolonging marine heatwaves and intensifying global climate impacts into 2027.

Marine heatwaves, like “Blob 1.0” (2013-2015) and “Blob 2.0” (2019-2020), have previously transformed North American West Coast marine ecosystems, causing widespread harmful algal blooms and mass seabird mortality. The current heatwave, larger than “Blob 1.0,” overlaps with emerging El Niño conditions, raising concerns about prolonged heat stress, further ecosystem disruption, and weakened ocean carbon absorption. This suggests the Pacific Ocean may be entering an era where climate extremes increasingly overlap, reinforce, and persist for longer periods.

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