In November 2025, the US State Department approved a $93 million arms sale to India, including Javelin anti-tank missiles and Excalibur artillery munitions, followed by a $686 million package to Pakistan in December 2025 for F-16 fleet upgrades. This reflects a US strategic shift towards enhancing India's precision strike capabilities and interoperability to counter China, while Pakistan's deal focuses on sustainment and counterterrorism coordination.
Despite being the dominant global arms exporter, US influence in South Asia is constrained. India remains a selective buyer, diversifying its suppliers beyond Russia and developing its domestic defense industry. Pakistan has increasingly pivoted to China for arms after a sharp decline in US assistance post-2011 incidents. The India-Pakistan rivalry fuels regional militarization, creating a triangular arms dynamic where US sales to India prompt Pakistani procurement from China. The article argues US policy must evolve from transactional arms sales to an integrated regional strategy, prioritizing restraint-oriented systems and crisis management, as current transfers cannot unilaterally alter state behavior.
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