Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu's strategy to reshape the Middle East by defeating Iran has failed, instead risking a "permacrisis" of attritional conflict. Their assumption that Iran's regime would easily collapse proved wrong, as evidenced by Iran's downing of a US Apache helicopter and its continued determination to control the Strait of Hormuz.
The war, unpopular in America, has complicated Trump's desire for a quick victory and a deal to reopen the Strait and address Iran's nuclear plans. Netanyahu's force-based approach against Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah has also faltered, with his plans to attack Beirut curbed by Trump. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway, remains closed since March, causing significant economic consequences for Gulf oil states and global trade, contrary to initial expectations. Iran's new leadership, more risk-tolerant, links the war in Lebanon with Gulf stability, demonstrating that attacks on Iran will incur painful consequences.
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