The Red Sea, a vital international maritime corridor, is a contested strategic space where great and regional powers vie for influence amidst conflicts and cooperation opportunities. The Horn of Africa (HOA) is treated as a spillover zone for Middle Eastern conflicts, with governance frameworks fostering clientelist approaches, undermining African states' agency.
This dynamic, amplified by regional conflicts, highlights its role as a critical global economic artery, not a cohesive governance space. Instability drivers include unresolved conflicts (Sudan, Yemen), a disconnect between major powers' trade security priorities and littoral states' coastal security needs, and economic/environmental fragility fostering "blue crime." Regional powers like Egypt, Ethiopia, Israel, and Saudi Arabia emerge, yet Middle Eastern investments often intensify tensions, as littoral states like Djibouti and Sudan leverage their strategic locations for influence. A Red Sea compact between IGAD and the GCC, emphasizing transparency and mediation, is proposed for stability. Enhanced cooperation among regional actors on navigation and infrastructure is crucial, especially given risks from Houthi attacks and Iran's expanding influence on this corridor, which carries 15-17% of global maritime trade and critical digital infrastructure.
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