Reuters reported in December 2025 that researchers in Shenzhen secretly built a prototype for an extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine, a critical piece of equipment for producing advanced semiconductors. This development sparked debate on when China can overcome this last obstacle to manufacturing its own advanced chips.
Chinese insiders target 2030 for working chips, while skeptics predict decades for commercial viability. The article identifies three technical chokepoints for EUV machines: high-power light sources, ultra-smooth mirrors, and ultra-pure photoresist chemicals. China's current light source output is 100-150 watts compared to the industry standard of 250-600 watts, its mirrors achieve 65 percent reflection rate versus 70 percent, and it cannot produce viable photoresists. China employs talent poaching, such as Lin Nan from ASML, and hybrid engineering, combining reverse engineering with domestic innovation. Experts like Paul Triolo are less skeptical, suggesting pilot line capabilities by 2030, while others like Greg Allen believe the prototype might result from export control evasion, highlighting the continuous advancement of Western technology.
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