The United States, Israel, and Iran tested in summer 2025 whether air power alone can compel a hostile government, with Operation Epic Fury demonstrating its limitations. This concentrated air campaign, one of the most intense since the Gulf War, reaffirmed that air power does not win wars or change regimes by itself because air supremacy does not equate to control of ground.
Control of ground ultimately determines martial strife outcomes, enabling an armed force to compel. While air power is indispensable, it is necessary but insufficient for victory, serving primarily as an enabler. Military action to oust a regime must terminate its monopoly on force, which Epic Fury, lacking a ground component, could not achieve. Strategic thinkers like Sir Julian Corbett and Admiral J. C. Wylie emphasize that wars are ultimately won on land, where people live, and military strategy's goal is control of critical real estate. Wylie posits the "man on the scene with a gun" (the soldier) is the ultimate arbiter, while air and sea power are cumulative operations enabling sequential ground offensives but not deciding wars independently. Epic Fury's inconclusive results, with the Islamic Republic surviving albeit debilitated, align with these insights.
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