7 July 2026

Geopolitical Europe Needs Air-Conditioning

Carnegie Endowment | Rym Momtaz

Western Europe is currently facing a third extraordinary heat wave since May 27, exposing its profound unpreparedness for climate change and creating a significant geopolitical vulnerability. This systemic resistance to quick, wholesale transformation, exemplified by raging debates over air-conditioning and widespread infrastructure failures, undermines the continent's ability to assert power and deters adversaries.

Essential dual-use infrastructure, including rail tracks and hospitals, has been severely stressed, with indoor temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius in many uncooled facilities. This paralysis raises severe doubts about European governments' capacity to deter and repel war against threats like Russian President Vladimir Putin or China. Despite scientific predictions, new infrastructure built after the 2003 heat wave was deliberately designed without air-conditioning due to dogmatic green transition policies. A holistic adaptation strategy, combining revegetation, better insulation, and air-conditioning, is crucial. While Europe has demonstrated capacity for epochal change, these efforts have been insufficient and too slow to address the immediate climate and security double crisis, necessitating faster local action and a more intense global diplomatic strategy.

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