New Syria, Old Lebanon: Absence of the State

Carnegie Endowment | Kheder Khaddour

U.S. President Donald Trump, on June 16, 2026, proposed that Syria "take care of Hezbollah" in Lebanon during a G7 summit meeting with Qatar's emir, aiming to reduce Iran's influence and leverage over Lebanon. This initiative, which included discussions with Syria's President Ahmad al-Sharaa and a review of Syria's state sponsor of terrorism designation, sought to replace Israel as Hezbollah's nemesis and neutralize the group.

However, the author argues this strategy would exacerbate sectarianism among Lebanese and Syrians, transforming a geopolitical conflict into an internal sectarian clash. Syria's new regime, still struggling to stabilize itself after fourteen years of civil war, lacks a unified state and army, making it ill-equipped for such an intervention. A Syrian military campaign would confront a Lebanon devastated by Israeli actions, with nearly 4,200 killed, over 11,000 wounded, and 1.2 million displaced. This would likely plunge Lebanese Shiites into an existential crisis, potentially uniting them around Hezbollah, while other communities harbor complex fears of internal strife or renewed Syrian domination. The proposal misreads Lebanon's internal dynamics, risking internal corrosion rather than stability.

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