Ukrainian long-range drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure are successfully eroding domestic public support for the war by triggering severe fuel shortages, airport closures, and inflation. This campaign directly targets the Russian public's sensitivity to personal economic costs, threatening to disrupt the crucial mid-summer harvest and fuel deliveries to remote regions.
Historically, the Kremlin sought to insulate ordinary citizens from the conflict's consequences, relying on rapid real wage growth to maintain a passive consensus. However, as economic growth stagnates, a majority of Russians now report deteriorating local conditions, driving a sharp decline in confidence in state institutions. Confidence in the military fell 13 points to 66 percent, while trust in the national government dropped 14 points to 53 percent. With a record 81 percent of respondents supporting an immediate end to the war, these compounding economic grievances are steadily undermining the regime's ability to sustain public acquiescence.
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