11 July 2026

The Geography of Coercion: Russian Missile and Drone Campaigns in Ukraine

Center for Strategic and International Studies | Marcus Welsch , Yasir Atalan, Benjamin Jensen, and Erik Tiersten-Nyman

Russia escalated its long-range firepower campaign in Ukraine from 2023 through early 2026, increasing annual oblast-level damage reports from 358 to 1,553 to systematically degrade logistics, critical infrastructure, and civilian morale. This coercive punishment strategy deploys massed salvos of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shahed-type drones to overwhelm air defenses.

By exploiting geographic proximity and seasonal vulnerabilities, Moscow concentrates strikes on frontline southeastern oblasts, strategic ports, and energy grids during winter to maximize economic and psychological leverage. The rapid scaling of Shahed-type drone launches to approximately 5,500 in October 2025 alone demonstrates a shift toward high-volume, low-cost saturation tactics designed to exhaust defensive resources. Ultimately, these operations seek to alter Kyiv's utility calculus, aiming to force political concessions and limit sovereignty despite failing to break Ukrainian political cohesion or fully collapse the national power grid.

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