The war in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, has reached another inflection point as Russian forces visibly struggle on the battlefield against Kyiv’s strategy of making the conflict futile. Even if defeated, Russia will remain the primary threat to European security for years to come, driven by its persistent ambition to upend the continent's security architecture.
This enduring challenge persists despite Moscow's stagnating economy, poor demographics, and an increasingly ossifying authoritarian regime. Although Kyiv's defensive efforts are currently working to stymie immediate territorial gains, the long-term geopolitical balance of power in Europe remains highly vulnerable to future Russian military reconstitution. Moscow's deep-seated investment in disrupting regional stability ensures that the strategic threat will outlast the current hostilities, regardless of the war's ultimate battlefield outcome. Consequently, European defense planning must prepare for a prolonged period of heightened deterrence and containment against a hostile neighbor that remains uniquely capable of projecting disruptive power across the continent.
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