The New Old Middle East: Wars of Sound and Fury

Foreign Affairs | F. Gregory Gause III

Iran and the United States signed a June 2026 cease-fire following a devastating regional war, yet Tehran successfully preserved its regime and reasserted strategic leverage over global energy markets. This diplomatic pause leaves the core drivers of the Middle Eastern conflict unresolved, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains power and continues funding regional proxies.

Decades of shadow warfare and direct homeland strikes between Israel and Iran have failed to alter the regional balance of power or resolve the fundamental Palestinian question. Weak central governments in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen remain highly vulnerable to external manipulation, preventing the establishment of a stable regional order. Consequently, Gulf Arab states face ongoing security threats despite their reliance on American air defenses, while the momentum for expanding normalization with Israel has reversed. With Tehran committed to its nuclear program and regional proxies, this fragile peace merely marks the countdown to the next inevitable conflict.

Comment

The suspension of normalization talks between Riyadh and Tel Aviv under the Abraham Accords framework reveals the limits of transactional security alignments. While Gulf capitals rely on American-integrated Patriot missile batteries to intercept Iranian-manufactured drones, this technical dependency has not produced a unified regional coalition. Consequently, the threat of asymmetric retaliation against the Abqaiq processing facility forces these states to balance tactical cooperation with Washington against diplomatic engagement with Tehran.

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