What Pakistan Is For

Brief

A Pakistani police post guarding the under-construction Mangi Dam project in Ziarat was overrun on the night of July 6, 2026. This security breach at a civilian infrastructure site, rather than a military garrison, cantonment, or nuclear facility, exposes critical vulnerabilities in the state's domestic security architecture. The incident highlights a deeper systemic crisis involving the Pakistani military and the political elite, who have increasingly transformed the state apparatus into an exclusive instrument of its owners.

By prioritizing elite preservation over public safety, the ruling establishment has left vital developmental projects exposed to local security threats. This security gap underscores how the state's strategic focus has drifted away from protecting public goods and critical infrastructure. Ultimately, the vulnerability of the Mangi Dam project reflects the broader consequences of a governance model that serves private elite interests at the expense of national stability.

The Disease Within: How Military Power Is Destroying Pakistan

FrameTheGlobeNews  |  Frank Genovese

Pakistan is experiencing a severe internal crisis as unchecked military power within the state increasingly threatens the nation's long-term survival. The domestic use of force to suppress growing dissent across critical regions, stretching from Balochistan to Azad Kashmir, is driving the country toward a profound strategic death, undermining its core stability.

While state-sponsored coercion may temporarily silence local opposition, this heavy-handed approach fails to address the underlying systemic issues. The primary danger to the nation no longer stems from external adversaries but rather from the unchecked authority concentrated within its own domestic institutions. This internal imbalance of power undermines national cohesion and destabilises the state from within. Consequently, the reliance on military dominance over political dialogue risks permanently fracturing the country's social fabric and accelerating its geopolitical decline. Ultimately, the persistent suppression of regional grievances through security-centric measures highlights a critical domestic vulnerability that compromises the state's overall stability and future viability.

How The Iran War Is Changing Security Dynamics In The Middle East

Eurasia Review  |  Daud Khattak

Kuwait ratified a bilateral defense agreement with Pakistan on July 26, 2026, establishing framework protocols for military training, personnel exchanges, and intelligence sharing. This pact follows a comprehensive Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan last year, which contains a NATO-style collective defense clause. These rapidly expanding security arrangements are driven by Persian Gulf nations losing confidence in the United States security umbrella after repeated Iranian missile and drone strikes exposed vulnerabilities at regional American bases.

For Islamabad, these partnerships provide critical economic relief to counter its fragile financial state, highlighted by Abu Dhabi demanding the immediate repayment of a $3.5 billion loan, while simultaneously mitigating the risk of diplomatic isolation by India. As the R4 alliance of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey discusses closer security cooperation, Islamabad is successfully leveraging the prolonged United States-Iran conflict to position itself as a pivotal Middle Eastern power.

The Strait of Malacca: The Indo-Pacific’s Most Critical Chokepoint?

The Diplomat | Paola Morselli

Indonesia’s short-lived proposal to introduce transit fees in the Strait of Malacca has exposed the growing vulnerability and politicisation of the Indo-Pacific’s most critical maritime chokepoint. This strategic waterway, jointly managed with Malaysia and Singapore under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, remains highly vulnerable to geopolitical coercion and operational disruptions.

Historically, the narrow Phillip Channel near Singapore creates a physical bottleneck of less than three kilometres, compounding security risks from piracy and traffic congestion. For Beijing, this bottleneck underpins the persistent 'Malacca Dilemma,' as approximately 80 percent of Chinese crude oil imports transit the corridor. To mitigate this vulnerability, China has expanded its naval presence in the South China Sea and invested in overland alternatives like the China-Myanmar and China-Pakistan Economic Corridors. However, persistent political instability and geographical constraints in Myanmar and Pakistan ensure that these alternative routes cannot yet match the efficiency of the primary strait.

Securing the quantum stack: export controls, choke points and strategic competition

International Institute for Strategic Studies  |  Dongyoun Cho, Maria Shagina

The United States and its allies have established aligned export controls targeting critical choke points across the quantum-computing supply chain to prevent military exploitation by strategic rivals. These measures, coordinated through plurilateral arrangements outside the deadlocked Wassenaar Arrangement, seek to constrain future adversary capabilities before they become commercially widespread.

This regulatory shift targets highly concentrated nodes, including Finnish dilution refrigerators, British synthetic diamonds, and global isotopes, which are indispensable for hardware development. However, these restrictions have prompted China to accelerate domestic production of alternative technologies, such as proprietary cooling systems, highlighting the limits of unilateral denial. To counter these supply-chain reconfigurations, Western governments are increasingly pairing export restrictions with robust industrial policies, including the US National Quantum Initiative Act and European funding programs. Ultimately, sustaining long-term technological leadership will depend on the capacity of allied markets to absorb and fund the very critical nodes their control lists seek to protect.

China’s ambition to lead the world in AI safety begins breaking hearts

CNN  |  Kristie Lu Stout, Joyce Jiang

Chinese regulators have banned minors from using AI companion applications and restricted emotionally dependent chatbot services to combat user addiction and social isolation. This sweeping policy has forced major platforms like ByteDance’s Doubao and Alibaba’s Qwen to roll back customization features, triggering widespread distress among users who rely on virtual relationships.

These stringent measures emerge as Beijing grapples with demographic challenges, including record-low birth rates, youth unemployment, and growing social withdrawal. Concurrently, authorities have expressed concerns regarding the rapid expansion of a domestic digital human industry valued at $573 million in 2024. While the United States and China both grapple with safety governance, Beijing is aggressively positioning itself as a global regulatory leader. This strategy culminated in the launch of the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, a 29-nation international alliance headquartered in Shanghai designed to export its state-centric governance model to participating countries.

How will Trump’s new science strategy change US research?

Atlantic Council  |  Trisha Ray, Tess deBlanc-Knowles, Lloyd Whitman, Kenton Thibaut

The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy has released a new national science strategy designed to fundamentally restructure the United States’ research and development ecosystem. By capping university overhead rates and requiring private cost-sharing, the policy aims to shift federal funding away from traditional academic institutions toward focused research organizations and industry consortia.

This structural pivot occurs alongside proposed regulatory rewrites by the Office of Management and Budget to allow political reviews of federal grants, even as the administration proposes to reduce the budget of key scientific agencies. Geopolitically, the strategy frames foreign STEM talent as a liability and establishes targeted national missions in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductors to counter China. However, experts warn that domestic funding cuts, politicised grant reviews, and nativist talent policies could undermine long-term American competitiveness against Chinese technological diffusion and lower-cost open-weight models in global markets.

The Next Phase of China’s Minority Crackdown: Forced Assimilation Is Now the Law

Foreign Affairs | James Leibold and Tenzin Dorjee

China’s Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, enacted on July 1, 2026, codifies a state-mandated campaign of forced cultural assimilation targeting minority populations. This landmark legislation marks a decisive shift away from the constitutional promise of regional autonomy for non-Han groups, legally enforcing a singular national identity.

This legislative consolidation builds on over a decade of systematic efforts by Chinese leader Xi Jinping to dismantle territorial protections in Xinjiang, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia following ethnic unrest in 2008 and 2009. By mandating Mandarin-language instruction, standardising cultural symbols, and monitoring family education, the state seeks to eliminate distinct political identities. Consequently, this hollowing out of autonomy closes off avenues for peaceful coexistence, forcing communities into public conformity while driving cultural preservation underground. Ultimately, the destruction of the political middle ground risks backfiring, potentially hardening long-term exile resistance and locking Beijing into a cycle of permanent domestic coercion.

The Loneliest Island

Foreign Affairs  |  Bonny Lin

China launched the massive "Justice Mission 2025" military exercises in late December 2025, deploying over a hundred air sorties and amphibious assault ships to almost completely encircle Taiwan. This highly provocative operation disrupted international and domestic air traffic, demonstrating Beijing's growing capability to enforce a total blockade of the democratic island.

These maneuvers capped a year of relentless gray-zone pressure, during which Chinese forces conducted daily incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone to systematically exhaust the island's military readiness. By normalizing such high-intensity operations, Beijing seeks to erode Taipei's defensive resolve while testing the limits of American security commitments and operational readiness in the Western Pacific. As the threat of a kinetic conflict, quarantine, or economic blockade escalates, Washington faces growing pressure to clarify its long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity and rapidly bolster regional deterrence postures alongside its Indo-Pacific allies.

Taiwan’s path to victory is unclear

Asia Times  |  Denny Roy

Taiwan faces an existential threat as the People's Republic of China intensifies its military buildup and blockade rehearsals to force unification. Despite Taipei raising defense spending to 3% of GDP and extending mandatory military service to one year, the People's Liberation Army maintains overwhelming numerical superiority in troops, naval vessels, and aircraft.

This widening cross-strait military imbalance undermines Taiwan's unilateral deterrence, forcing reliance on potential United States intervention. However, the long-term reliability of American support remains highly uncertain, especially as Washington seeks to mitigate its own economic vulnerability by shifting advanced semiconductor manufacturing onshore. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's $265 billion investment in United States-based fabs threatens to dilute Taipei's silicon shield over time. Furthermore, Beijing's historical willingness to prioritize nationalist unification over economic stability suggests that neither global supply chain integration nor democratic solidarity will sufficiently deter a Chinese invasion of the island, leaving Taiwan's future highly dependent on unpredictable global developments.

The PLA at 99: how China’s military went from ragtag rifles to world-class force

South China Morning Post  |  Liu Zhen

The People’s Liberation Army of China is marking its ninety-ninth anniversary on 1 August 2026, entering the final year before its centenary deadline to complete its transition into a world-class, self-reliant military power. This milestone highlights a sweeping strategic evolution aimed at transforming the force from a historical revolutionary group into a modern, hi-tech machine.

Historically grounded in guerrilla warfare tactics, the institution has systematically overhauled its operational doctrines to prepare for contemporary, technology-driven conflicts. This long-term pursuit of comprehensive modernization, detailed in a new series, reflects Beijing's broader geopolitical ambitions to project power and deter external adversaries. As the 2027 deadline approaches, the focus intensifies on integrating advanced capabilities across all warfare domains. Ultimately, this transition from ragtag infantry origins to a highly sophisticated force represents a permanent shift in the regional balance of power, reshaping global security dynamics.

AI’s Economic Winners

Council on Foreign Relations | Rebecca Patterson

The global race for artificial intelligence leadership is shifting as China challenges the United States' historical dominance in talent and research output. While the United States maintains a massive lead in private AI investment, China now produces over 35 percent of top-tier journal publications and holds nearly 70 percent of global AI patents.

This shifting balance of power is further complicated by critical resource dependencies, as both nations leverage export controls on advanced semiconductor chips and critical minerals. Furthermore, rapid technology deployment in highly digitized nations like the United Arab Emirates and Singapore demonstrates that economic benefits depend heavily on domestic infrastructure, electricity availability, and labor-market structures rather than model development alone. Ultimately, the long-term economic winners will be determined by how effectively countries navigate public concerns over job displacement, cyber vulnerabilities, and massive energy demands, which The International Energy Agency projects will double global data center electricity consumption by 2030.

The Reconstruction Vacuum in Lebanon

Geopolitical Monitor | Hossein Cheaito

Lebanon’s June 26 US-mediated framework agreement with Israel conditions southern reconstruction on the verified disarmament of Hezbollah, forcing a strained Lebanese state to expand its military capacity to confront a superior domestic adversary. This security-sequenced recovery model risks converting humanitarian assistance into political leverage, leaving displaced populations in prolonged limbo.

Historically, Lebanon's decimated state capacity and unresolved financial crisis have left public institutions entirely dependent on external stabilization frameworks. With conflict damages estimated at $6.8 billion and total economic losses reaching $7.2 billion, the World Bank’s $250 million Lebanon Emergency Assistance Project faces immediate implementation hurdles. If eligibility for these critical funds remains tied to security-cleared pilot zones rather than verified civilian needs, the resulting geographical disparities will permanently devastate southern agricultural economies. Ultimately, integrating disarmament benchmarks into the recovery process threatens to institutionalise demographic displacement and solidify de-facto territorial partition across the region.

The New Old Middle East: Wars of Sound and Fury

Foreign Affairs | F. Gregory Gause III

Iran and the United States signed a June 2026 cease-fire following a devastating regional war, yet Tehran successfully preserved its regime and reasserted strategic leverage over global energy markets. This diplomatic pause leaves the core drivers of the Middle Eastern conflict unresolved, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retains power and continues funding regional proxies.

Decades of shadow warfare and direct homeland strikes between Israel and Iran have failed to alter the regional balance of power or resolve the fundamental Palestinian question. Weak central governments in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen remain highly vulnerable to external manipulation, preventing the establishment of a stable regional order. Consequently, Gulf Arab states face ongoing security threats despite their reliance on American air defenses, while the momentum for expanding normalization with Israel has reversed. With Tehran committed to its nuclear program and regional proxies, this fragile peace merely marks the countdown to the next inevitable conflict.

Another Hormuz? What to Know About the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea

Council on Foreign Relations | Diana Roy

Yemen-based Houthi rebels declared a complete naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on July 20, 2026, threatening to choke off the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This unilateral escalation targets a critical maritime corridor that facilitates approximately 12 to 15 percent of global trade, valued at over $1 trillion annually.

The blockade follows the collapse of a temporary United States-Houthi ceasefire and marks a significant expansion of the group's maritime campaign beyond its previous targeting of Israeli-linked shipping. With Saudi Arabia exporting four to five million barrels of oil per day through Red Sea ports, a sustained disruption in the strait risks severing vital energy corridors and forcing highly inefficient rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Furthermore, the threat extends to digital infrastructure, as the waterway hosts undersea fiber optic cables carrying 90 percent of Europe-Asia internet traffic. Consequently, this blockade intensifies the broader proxy conflict between Washington and Tehran, testing Western maritime security initiatives like Operation Prosperity Guardian.

The Book That Predicted Pete Hegseth’s Failures

Foreign Policy | Keith Johnson

Pete Hegseth’s leadership failures are analyzed through the lens of Norman Dixon’s book, *On the Psychology of Military Incompetence*, which examines the psychological traits of petty men in military structures amid broader debates over United States foreign policy and potential military preparations for a ground invasion of Iran.

This exploration connects historical military psychology with contemporary national security challenges. Dixon's historical framework provides a critical baseline for evaluating modern command structures and decision-making processes during times of international crisis. The publication's coverage also highlights the economic dimensions of modern warfare, specifically questioning which entities profit from these escalating geopolitical tensions. These themes are situated within the wider context of the second Trump administration's transition and its evolving strategy toward the Middle East. Although technical loading issues on the Foreign Policy website limit access to the full text, the editorial focus remains on the intersection of military doctrine, leadership psychology, and strategic deterrence.

Iran and the New Rules of Global Power: The Making and Unmaking of American Dominance

Foreign Affairs | Robert A. Pape

The United States military faces unprecedented operational limitations in the Strait of Hormuz as cheaper precision technologies democratise warfare and dismantle the legacy of American dominance established during the 1991 Gulf War. This technological shift allows weaker state and non-state actors to impose immense costs on global commerce and challenge Western maritime security.

Historically, the rapid defeat of Iraq's massive army in Operation Desert Storm fostered global confidence in Washington's ability to secure trade routes and deter adversaries effortlessly. However, decades of globalization have commoditized advanced semiconductors, GPS receivers, and artificial intelligence, enabling the assembly of effective precision weapons like the Iranian Shahed-136 drone from cheap, civilian components. Consequently, the international order faces heightened volatility, escalating protection costs for maritime trade, and frequent crises as the strategic barriers that once protected the global supply chain collapse. This transition marks a shift toward a more dangerous era of intense competition over the world's strategic chokepoints.

The Hidden Path to Regime Change in Iran: Ending the War Can Strengthen the Prospects for Democracy

Foreign Affairs | Nader Hashemi

The United States and Iran entered a fragile cease-fire on July 27, 2026, following a devastating escalation that collapsed their June 17 memorandum of understanding, leaving Washington to confront the reality that military strikes will not topple the Islamic Republic. Instead, a diplomatic grand bargain ending the conflict represents the most plausible catalyst for long-term domestic democratization.

Decades of Western sanctions and external bombardment have historically consolidated the regime's power by fostering nationalism and enabling the ruling elite to crush internal dissent under the pretext of national security. Although the regime managed a smooth leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, the country already meets five of six scholarly preconditions for democratization, including high literacy, urbanization, and a strong national identity. Integrating the economy into the global market through sanctions relief would weaken state-controlled patronage networks, shifting public focus toward domestic corruption, pervasive economic inequality, and governance failures.

Will Iran Turn Into a Forever War?

Council on Foreign Relations

President Donald Trump launched a war against Iran in February 2026, initiating a cycle of military escalation that risks becoming an uncontrollable forever war. Following the targeted killings of several Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the reconstituted theocratic regime retaliated by disrupting maritime traffic in the critical Persian Gulf waterway.

This escalatory dynamic mirrors the flawed incremental military pressure strategies employed during the Vietnam War, which historically failed to account for an adversary's capacity to absorb punishment. Despite severe domestic inflation, power outages, and food shortages, the Iranian leadership views the conflict in existential terms, giving them a greater incentive to endure economic and physical devastation than a distant superpower. As the United States threatens to bomb critical infrastructure for any further shipping disruptions, the U.S. Navy will likely bear the disproportionate burden of securing the Strait of Hormuz amidst escalating regional strikes.

Anthony Fauci’s Private Diary And Emails Show He Knew Lockdowns Failed – OpEd

Eurasia Review  |  Ian Miller

United States Senator Rand Paul released private diary entries and emails revealing that former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director Anthony Fauci privately acknowledged by June 18, 2020, that lockdowns and closures did not impact COVID-19 transmission, despite publicly advocating for these measures for years.

These documents also show that Fauci promoted public mask mandates in April 2020 based on public adoption rather than scientific data, and that ten out of twelve experts on an early pandemic call considered a laboratory leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology a distinct possibility. Furthermore, the records expose discrepancies in Fauci's public statements regarding COVID-19 mortality rates, which he privately estimated at 0.2 to 0.3 percent while publicly claiming 1 to 2.5 percent, alongside evidence of his direct role in advising municipal and state officials to close schools. The correspondence further details his efforts to cultivate personal relationships with media figures to manage public narratives.

How to End the Iran War

Foreign Policy | Allison Minor and Nate Swanson

U.S. President Donald Trump faces critical diplomatic challenges in managing the conflict with Iran during his second presidential term. The ongoing crisis in the Middle East has raised urgent questions regarding whether the United States military is actively preparing for a ground invasion of Iran. This volatile environment forces U.S.

foreign policy to confront the economic and strategic realities of managing multiple global crises, particularly as the administration seeks to negotiate a durable ceasefire. Concurrently, questions persist over which international entities are financially benefiting from the ongoing warfare, complicating efforts to establish regional peace. These regional dynamics unfold alongside other major global pressures, including the war in Ukraine, intense U.S.-China competition, and the rapid evolution of artificial intelligence. Ultimately, resolving the confrontation and establishing a stable ceasefire remains a central focus of U.S. foreign policy as decision-makers weigh the strategic trade-offs of military action versus diplomatic engagement.

Why Iran chose to restart the fight after the US stopped firing

MSN | Abbas Al Lawati

Iran resumed regional military operations and proxy attacks against American assets in the Middle East immediately after the United States halted its retaliatory airstrikes. This tactical resurgence threatens to disrupt the fragile deterrence established by previous Western coalition operations in Iraq, Syria, and the Red Sea, escalating regional instability.

The decision to restart hostilities reflects Tehran's calculated assessment of American political constraints and its desire to maintain pressure on Western forces without triggering a direct state-on-state conflict. By leveraging its network of aligned militias, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to exploit security vacuums while testing the limits of Washington's red lines. Consequently, the resumption of hostilities complicates diplomatic efforts to secure maritime trade routes and manage broader regional escalation risks. Ongoing proxy maneuvers suggest that the cycle of asymmetric engagement will persist as both nations navigate the strategic trade-offs of deterrence and escalation management.

Trump Has Revolutionized Executive Power

Persuasion  |  Francis Fukuyama

Donald Trump has systematically concentrated American governmental authority within the office of the president, fundamentally reshaping the limits of executive power for future administrations. This rapid expansion of authority has bypassed traditional congressional legislative powers through unilateral executive orders, including attempts to end birthright citizenship and unilaterally impose tariffs.

The Supreme Court's July 2026 decision in *Trump v. Slaughter* accelerated this shift by overturning the 1935 Humphrey’s Executor precedent, which previously protected independent regulatory agencies from direct political interference. This legal transformation advances the conservative doctrine of the unitary executive, threatening the institutional expertise required to run a modern state. By replacing career experts with unqualified political loyalists across the defense, intelligence, and judicial sectors, the administration has degraded operational competence. Ultimately, plans like the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025 and the proposed Schedule P/C civil service designation aim to subject the entire federal bureaucracy to direct political control, permanently dismantling merit-based governance.

The U.S.—Decline or Renewal?

Foreign Affairs  |  Samuel P. Huntington

The United States experienced a significant surge in declinist sentiment during 1988 as persistent budget deficits, trade imbalances, and the October 1987 stock market crash fueled widespread fears of eroding global hegemony. This economic anxiety catalyzed intense public and policy debates over whether the nation was entering a period of permanent geopolitical decay.

These systemic anxieties trace their roots directly to early 1980s political economy literature that first attempted to analyze the structural consequences of a fading American economic hegemony. The intellectual momentum of this movement culminated in the spectacular commercial and academic success of Paul Kennedy’s historical analysis of imperial overstretch. While critics view these fiscal imbalances as indicators of terminal decline, the phenomenon represents the fifth major wave of declinism since the 1950s, illustrating a recurring domestic pattern of crisis-driven renewal. This cyclical self-correction suggests that domestic policy adjustments, rather than structural inevitability, will ultimately dictate the future trajectory of American global power.

Anthony Fauci refuses to answer questions during tense US Senate hearing about Covid origins

BBC  |  Madeline Halpert, Max Matza

Former US health official Anthony Fauci invoked the Fifth Amendment more than 100 times during a tense US Senate hearing on Covid-19 origins to avoid potential perjury charges. The 85-year-old former leader of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases declined to answer questions from the Senate Committee on Homeland Security, citing a vindictive prosecution effort led by Republican Senator Rand Paul.

This high-profile standoff reflects deep-seated political divisions over the pandemic's onset, particularly regarding whether the virus emerged naturally or leaked from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. While a pre-emptive pardon from former President Joe Biden shields the scientist from federal prosecution for actions between 2014 and 2025, he remains vulnerable to state-level charges or congressional contempt resolutions. The dispute intensified following the release of his personal diary entries, which revealed early uncertainty regarding the pathogen's source. Consequently, Florida's attorney general has launched a state-level investigation, signaling prolonged legal and political battles over the US pandemic response.

CENTCOM seeks ‘creative, unconventional’ ways to punish Iran - report

The Jerusalem Post

US Central Command has requested military analysts to develop unconventional strategies to pressure Iran as the Trump administration reassesses its military options in the Middle East. This directive comes amid concerns that current US airstrikes are failing to alter Tehran's negotiating posture regarding its nuclear program and maritime threats in the Strait of Hormuz.

Historically, limited aerial campaigns have struggled to compel Iranian compliance, prompting planners to evaluate more aggressive alternatives. These options include a high-intensity, multi-week bombardment targeting remaining missile capabilities, or high-risk ground operations to neutralize deeply buried nuclear facilities like Pickaxe Mountain. However, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine has warned of dwindling air-defense interceptor stockpiles and potential civilian casualties. While regional leaders like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urge de-escalation, the administration remains caught between avoiding prolonged foreign conflicts and achieving a decisive diplomatic breakthrough.

Alone at the border: Ceuta and Europe's solidarity failure

European Council on Foreign Relations | Carla Hobbs

Spain’s autonomous city of Ceuta is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis due to a surge in migrant arrivals, exposing the persistent lack of solidarity among European Union member states. The Spanish enclave, situated on the North African coast bordering Morocco, has seen its reception facilities overwhelmed, particularly by unaccompanied minors.

While Madrid has repeatedly called for a coordinated European response and the relocation of migrants across the bloc, other EU members have largely resisted these appeals, leaving Spain to manage the border pressure unilaterally. This failure to share responsibility highlights the limitations of the EU’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum, which struggles to enforce mandatory solidarity mechanisms. Consequently, the crisis strains Spain’s domestic politics and its bilateral relationship with Morocco, which acts as a critical gatekeeper. The ongoing deadlock threatens to undermine the EU's collective border management strategy and leaves frontline territories highly vulnerable to geopolitical exploitation.

The Economic War on Iran Is—and Isn’t—Working

Foreign Policy | Anchal Vohra

United States economic sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports have successfully imposed devastating financial costs on the domestic economy, yet these measures yield highly ambiguous strategic outcomes. While the aggressive trade and economic restrictions aim to cripple Tehran's financial networks, the ultimate efficacy of this pressure campaign remains deeply contested among international policymakers.

This systemic friction highlights the operational limits of economic warfare when decoupled from clear diplomatic or military objectives within the broader Middle East. The ongoing crisis raises critical questions about future reconstruction efforts and whether the current strategy will transition into a direct ground invasion of the country. Furthermore, the prolonged conflict invites intense global scrutiny over which specific actors are actively profiting from the widespread economic disruption and regional instability. Ultimately, the unresolved tension between economic strangulation and potential military escalation continues to define the trajectory of U.S. foreign policy toward the nation.

Italian scholars boycott Israeli academic institutions

Al Jazeera | Alan Eyre

More than 300 Italian academics from dozens of universities have launched a boycott against Israeli academic institutions, protesting the ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories and alleged violations of international law. The petition, inspired by the global Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement, specifically targets institutions like the Technion-Israel Institute of Technology in Haifa due to its research partnerships with the Israeli military and state defence industries.

This coordinated academic campaign represents the first major institutional boycott of its kind within Italy, signalling a growing European academic backlash against Israeli state policies. Opponents of the initiative, including Italian government officials and university rectors, have strongly condemned the boycott, arguing that academic freedom and scientific collaboration should remain insulated from geopolitical conflicts. Despite this institutional opposition, organizers plan to expand their campaign across European academic networks, raising concerns over the potential long-term isolation of Israeli research institutions in international scientific communities.

‘An exchange of ideas,’ not an effort at persuasion: Inside Netanyahu’s Oval Office meeting with Trump

Times of Israel  |  Jacob Magid

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office on July 28, 2026, to discuss strategic options regarding Iran, including diplomatic agreements, economic blockades, and potential military offensives. Netanyahu emphasized that Israel would not wait for American approval to respond if Iran launches a direct attack.

This high-level consultation occurred amid the collapse of a recent maritime memorandum of understanding and ongoing regional tensions. During the 90-minute meeting, the leaders evaluated Iran's depleted arsenal of approximately 1,500 ballistic missiles, its 90% inflation rate, and the unenriching Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site. Additionally, Netanyahu defended the Israeli military presence in Syria and Lebanon using visual maps, opposed US F-35 fighter jet sales to Turkey, and proposed transitioning Israel away from $3.3 billion in annual Foreign Military Financing over a 10-year period while maintaining $500 million in ballistic missile defense aid.

US Crude Oil Inventories Build Again Despite Hormuz Disruption

Oilprice | James Durso

United States crude oil inventories registered another weekly increase despite ongoing shipping disruptions in the strategic Strait of Hormuz transit route. This domestic supply build occurred even as heightened geopolitical tensions threatened Middle Eastern maritime energy corridors, which typically restrict flow and drive inventory drawdowns. The expansion of domestic stockpiles indicates robust domestic production and shifting refinery utilization rates within the American energy sector.

Consequently, the global oil market faces a complex dynamic where domestic supply cushions against international transit vulnerabilities. These inventory dynamics reflect broader shifts in global energy security, where North American supply resilience acts as a counterweight to traditional geopolitical chokepoints. Moving forward, market analysts will closely monitor whether this domestic inventory growth can continue to offset potential supply shocks from the Middle East, particularly if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz escalate or persist over a longer duration, altering global pricing structures.

The Strait Iran Cannot Let Go Of

RealClearWorld  |  Jacob Childress

Iran's declaration of a total blockade on the Strait of Hormuz on March 4th triggered the largest oil supply disruption in history, driving a ninety percent drop in tanker traffic. This aggressive action forced regional neighbors and global consumers to bypass Iranian transit routes entirely, fundamentally undermining Tehran's long-held strategic leverage.

The blockade prompted unprecedented unilateral military interventions, with Saudi Arabia striking drone launch sites inside Iranian territory and the United Arab Emirates targeting the Lavan Island refinery. Simultaneously, China mitigated its energy shortfall by purchasing American crude, while US forces retaliated by striking ninety coastal targets, including the critical deep-water port of Chabahar. Although a brief ceasefire was negotiated in Islamabad, persistent attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy have shattered diplomatic efforts. Consequently, Washington is now weighing the high-risk option of seizing Kharg Island to permanently dismantle Iran's shadow oil export architecture.

CFR Surveyed 350 Experts About AI’s Future. Here Are the Takeaways.

Council on Foreign Relations | Jessica Brandt and Adam Segal

The Council on Foreign Relations surveyed 350 foreign policy experts on the future of artificial intelligence, revealing that over 80 percent expect highly fragmented global governance by 2035. With only 5 percent of respondents believing domestic regulatory bodies can keep pace with technological development, frontier AI laboratories are rapidly gaining unprecedented leverage over sovereign states.

This regulatory deficit is exacerbated by deep divisions over whether frontier capabilities will remain concentrated among a few advanced economies or diffuse widely through algorithmic breakthroughs. While a bilateral agreement between Washington and Beijing represents the most plausible path toward binding international rules, current geopolitical tensions make such cooperation highly unlikely. Consequently, 70 percent of those surveyed anticipate that a major technological accident will serve as the primary catalyst for governance reform, even as private developers increasingly capture state regulatory apparatuses and concentrate productivity gains within advanced economies.

The Paradox of Self-Reliance

Foreign Policy | Syrus Solo Jin

The United States military and its international allies are navigating a critical paradox as they attempt to build self-reliant national defense industries while maintaining collaborative security alliances. This effort to establish independent industrial capabilities highlights the tension between national autonomy and the collective requirements of modern coalition warfare, where unilateral production often proves logistically and financially unfeasible.

Historically, the pursuit of defense industrial autonomy has often conflicted with the operational necessity of allied interoperability and shared supply chains. Establishing redundant domestic production lines can inadvertently fragment the shared industrial base, driving up procurement costs and complicating joint logistics during high-intensity conflicts. Consequently, true self-reliance requires a balanced framework of bilateral co-development and technology sharing rather than isolationist procurement policies. As nations adapt to shifting geopolitical competitions, the integration of allied defense industrial bases remains essential to sustaining long-term deterrence and technological superiority.

The arms race for cheaper anti-ballistic weapons is underway

Defense News  |  Katie Livingstone

Lockheed Martin and a newly formed European-Ukrainian coalition have launched competing initiatives to develop cheaper, rapidly producible alternatives to the standard Patriot air defense missile. This sudden industrial acceleration aims to address critical interceptor shortages caused by intensive missile defense operations in Ukraine and the Middle East. Severe stockpile depletion, highlighted by U.S.

forces expending up to 1,430 Patriot rounds during recent conflicts with Iran, has exposed the economic unsustainability of relying solely on $3.9 million PAC-3 MSE interceptors. In response, the ten-nation Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition is backing the Ukrainian-designed Freyja system, which utilizes a $700,000 FP-7.X missile to destroy targets via fragmentation. Concurrently, the Pentagon expanded its multiyear Lockheed contract to $58.62 billion to triple PAC-3 production by 2030, while the manufacturer prepares its own lower-cost PAC-3 ACE variant for a projected 2028 maiden flight. These parallel efforts reflect a fundamental shift toward mass-producible, cost-effective air defense architectures.

Sovereign By Design: GCAP’s Drone Strategy Pre-Empts The Coherence It Aspires To

Eurasia Review  |  Meng Kit Tang

The Global Combat Air Program, a sixth-generation fighter partnership between Britain, Italy, and Japan, faces severe operational integration risks as each nation independently develops its own Collaborative Combat Aircraft. This fragmented approach to loyal wingman drones threatens to undermine the cost advantages and combat mass that semi-autonomous systems are designed to provide.

Historically, national industrial protectionism has derailed joint defense initiatives, as demonstrated by the 2026 collapse of Europe’s rival Future Combat Air System. While the crewed fighter is governed by a treaty-level body, no equivalent framework coordinates these parallel drone projects. Consequently, the lack of a common data architecture prevents these platforms from seamlessly sharing targeting data in contested environments. This technological divergence is compounded by domestic budgetary pressures, including British funding gaps and Japanese contingency planning for additional F-35s. Ultimately, these uncoordinated sovereign procurement strategies risk eroding the standardized economies of scale necessary to sustain high-attrition maritime operations in the Western Pacific.

A shrinking weapons stockpile is testing the Pentagon’s sweeping new strategy

Washington Post  |  Pranshu Verma

The United States Department of Defense is rapidly depleting its weapons stockpiles due to the ongoing war in Iran, forcing military leaders to rely on Silicon Valley startups to replenish critical munitions. This strategic shift tests whether non-traditional defense firms can successfully scale up manufacturing to meet urgent wartime demands.

Decades of consolidation within the American defense industrial base have left a handful of prime contractors struggling with supply chain bottlenecks and capacity constraints. To bypass these industrial limitations, the Pentagon is leveraging venture-backed technology companies to produce low-cost, high-volume systems like autonomous strike drones. However, transitioning these commercial innovations from prototype to mass production remains a significant hurdle. If these emerging tech firms fail to deliver at military scale, the military risks prolonged ammunition shortages that could compromise its operational capabilities in the Middle East and limit its ability to deter adversaries globally.