Fog of War: Is China's Military Battle-Ready?

Lyle J. Goldstein

March 14, 2015 

Are you experienced? The Chinese military debates the importance of its lack of recent combat experience.

A new assessment of the Chinese military by a reputable U.S. think tank concludes, in effect, that “the emperor has no clothes.” The authors of this report seem to be wary lest “… the US might be inclined to assume China has more sway in international affairs than its actual combat power merits.” This analysis claims to be more authoritative, based in part on an examination of “human capital” intangibles, which goes well beyond the rote “bean-counting” of simple force-structure analysis to look at command structures, health and recruiting, education, training, as well as corruption and civil-military relations.

A thorough evaluation of that report is well beyond the scope of this brief commentary. The research seems, by and large, to have been carefully done and to be supported by evidence from Chinese sources. This edition of Dragon Eye will focus solely on a point made repeatedly in this report and some of the related commentary: that “… the PLA has not, by and large, experienced modern warfare and may therefore be more cavalier about the prospects for achieving political goals through military means…” Put more simply, the PLA’s paucity of military experience would appear to be a gaping hole in China’s rapid military modernization, and one that simply cannot be remedied by shiny new weapons kitted out for glittering parades or even by elaborate computer simulations. This alleged major weakness in China’s military brings to mind a recent article from the official Chinese Navy newspaper, 人民海军, [People’s Navy], which ran under the headline: “Do Not Consider the ‘Lack of Real Combat Experience’ As a Major Issue.”

Admitting that many in Chinese military circles are concerned by the PLA’s lack of actual combat experience, the author 赵辉 [Zhao Hui] opens the essay, writing: “In the process of rapid military transformation, there are always people who say that a lack of combat experience is an important limitation on combat power…” Baldly stating his thesis, Zhao then asserts that such perspectives are “untenable, unscientific, rustic, inhibit self-confidence, and may lead to misguided policy …” While he concedes that this lack of fighting experience is the “objective reality confronting … [the Chinese] armed forces,” the author maintains that combat experience does not always signify a military advantage.

A Turning Point in China's 'War on Pollution'

By Shannon Tiezzi

March 14, 2015

For the first time since 2001, China’s total carbon emissions dropped last year. 

China’s total carbon dioxide emissions dropped in 2014, the first year-on-year decline since 2001,Bloomberg reported on Friday. The news marks a potential turning point in China’s “war on pollution” and in global efforts to prevent climate change.

Using energy demand data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that China’s CO2 emissions dropped 2 percent in 2014 compared to 2013. That confirms recently released findings by the International Energy Agency, which found that changing energy consumption patterns in China were a major reason that global emissions remained flat in 2014.

Sophie Lu, an analyst for BNEF, pointed out a major cause of the emission drop — China’s “coal demand is slowing” while other energy sources are becoming more widely used. According to China’s National Energy Administration, coal represented 64.2 of China’s total energy matrix, down from 66 percent in 2013. The goal is to have China’s reliance on coal continue to decline, with a target of having coal represent only 62 percent of China’s energy usage by 2020. Some experts are even calling for a cap on coal to be included in the next Five Year Plan (to cover the period from 2016-2020). The move away from coal was reflected economically as well; as Sara Hsu pointed out for The Diplomat, China’s coal mining industry saw profits drop by 46 percent last year.

In recent years, China had only been willing to commit a reduction in “emissions intensity,” or the number of emissions per unit GDP. Given China’s rapid GDP growth over the past decade, even meeting goals for emissions intensity reductions did little to stop total emissions from skyrocketing. China’s goal for this year, for example, is to reduce carbon intensity by 3.1 percent. But in a breakthrough climate change action plan announced alongside U.S. commitments last November, China announced it would aim to have its total emissions peak by 2030.

China’s push to move away from coal and toward cleaner energy sources is already paying off. China invested just under $90 billion in renewable energy in 2014 (compared to $51.8 billion for the U.S., the next largest investor in the world). China is also more aggressively pursuing natural gas and other, cleaner energy solutions such as nuclear power. According to China’s Energy Development Strategy Action Plan, released last November, China wants 10 percent of its total energy use to be supplied by natural gas by 2020.

Myanmar Bombings in Yunnan Killed 4 Chinese

By Ankit Panda

March 14, 2015

4 Chinese citizens were killed in an airstrike conducted by the Myanmar Air Force. 

Chinese media, including Xinhua, CCTV, and People’s Daily, have confirmed that four Chinese citizens have been killed as a result of a misjudged bombing run by the Myanmar Air Force on Friday. These reports come after a Chinese foreign ministry press conference earlier this week confirmed bombings by Myanmar jets on the Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border, in Yunnan province, last weekend. However, the press conference noted that though a civilian domicile was damaged, no Chinese lives were lost.

Today’s reports additionally note that Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin has summoned Myanmar’s envoy to China, Thit Linn Ohn, to lodge “solemn representations.” The bombing, which claimed four lives and resulted in nine injuries and took place after the press conference earlier this week, suggested repeated cross-border strikes by Myanmar jets. Myanmar’s Air Force has been conducting air strikes against ethnic Chinese Kokang rebels along the country’s northeastern border with China.

According to Xinhua, a bomb released by a Myanmar jet struck “a sugarcane field in the border city of Lincang and killed four people working there on Friday afternoon. Nine others were also injured.” Liu, the vice foreign minister, has condemned the incident and urged Myanmar to “thoroughly investigate the case and inform the Chinese side of the result.” Liu additionally recommended that Myanmar “punish the perpetrator.”

Earlier this week, in a press conference, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hong Lei noted that the “Chinese side has expressed grave concerns to the Myanmar side, asking them to get to the bottom of this incident as soon as possible and take effective measures to ensure that such incident will never happen again.” Obviously, given these reports, China’s earlier diplomatic pressure failed. As I noted earlier this week, the cross-border bombings put Beijing in a difficult position. News of Chinese casualties will only render the situation more severe and test the limits of China’s policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries.

Will China Bail Out Putin?

By Andrew Collier, Arthur Peng and Abigail Collier

March 14, 2015

As Russia’s economy struggles, China has been making overtures. 

China has been increasingly willing to help countries experiencing financial distress. This is part of a larger attempt to follow President Xi Jinping’s desire to make China “more engaged with the world.” Stepping in to help Russia would be another notch in China’s bailout belt. However, despite China’s increased economic support for Russia, China’s support is likely to remain indirect and limited.

Chinese bank loans and natural resource imports have provided Russia with some substantial economic advantages. Despite energy demand sinking to its lowest level since 1992, China’s imports from Russia have climbed in price and volume. This has been accompanied by Beijing’s promises for substantial infrastructure projects and long-term agreements. Likewise, several Chinese banks, including the Export-Import Bank of China, Bank of Harbin, China Export & Credit Insurance, and China Finance Strategies Investment Holding, have agreed to provide $13.8 billion in credit facilities and loans to Russian banks. China has even agreed to shoulder the larger part of a $242 billion high-speed rail project between Beijing and Moscow.

China has trumpeted these measures. “Together we have carefully taken care of the tree of Russian-Chinese relations,” Xi Jinping said at a meeting with Putin at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing last November. “Now fall has set in, it’s harvest time, it’s time to gather fruit.”

China has signed two natural gas deals with Russia that could account for as much as 17 percent of China’s gas consumption by 2020, according to research by Nomura Holdings.

But despite China’s significant contribution to Russian trade, bank loans, and the overall bilateral relationship – and the quid pro quo in energy deals – China’s assistance would not be enough to support the Russian economy. Currently, China provides nowhere near the support of the European Union, whose foreign direct investment accounts for 75 percent of Russia’s total inflow. The substantial finances provided by China are still only less than 10 percent of the $265 billion in loans and bonds that Russian companies need to repay.

Would India go to War with China to Help America?

By Hugh White

March 13, 2015

In his latest contribution to our debate over at the Lowy Interpreter, Shashank Joshi raised some excellent points against my sceptical view of the emerging India-US strategic partnership. But I'm still unpersuaded.

To explain why, it helps to step back and clarify the question we are debating here. It is not whether strategic relations between Delhi and Washington have grown closer in recent years, because clearly they have. It is what these closer relations mean for the geo-political contest between America and China.

India's position is clearly important to this contest. Many Americans, and many of America's friends in Asia, have long believed that India's growing wealth and power will be vital in helping America counterbalance China's growing strategic weight, and resist China's challenge to US regional leadership.

Indeed, the belief many people have that India will play this role is central to their confidence that America can and will preserve the status quo against China's challenge. It is therefore important to decide whether the progress we have seen in US-India relations justifies that confidence.

Our J&K strategy can be simple: hold on for 15-20 years, and Pakistan will self-destruct

by Ajai Sahni 

Mar 14, 2015 

Source Link

More than 30 years ago, Pakistan launched its proxy war against India, intervening, first, by backing Khalistani terrorism in Punjab and, thereafter, flush with the success of its US-backed ‘jihad’ in Afghanistan, igniting the Islamist-terrorist insurrection in Jammu & Kashmir.

Gradually, the goal of the Kashmiri jihad widened to include the rest of India, and continuous efforts of recruitment secured some ‘successes’, with a rash of terrorist attacks afflicting different parts of the country over an extended period of time.

Pakistan only needs to be left alone: Image used for representational purposes only

Even as India frets about the impending release by a Pakistani court of Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, the mastermind behind the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, we tend to forget that the anti-India activities of the Pakistani Deep State predate even the Khalistani campaign.

Pakistani mischief, in fact, commenced with the ‘tribal raid’ – in fact a covert military invasion – of Jammu & Kashmir in 1947, and comprehends support to virtually every significant separatist revolt in India’s North-east. Another three conventional wars have marked the brief history of the two nations born out of the crucible of Partition.

In this long interregnum, India is yet to devise a coherent policy response to enduring Pakistani trouble-making and is, today, once again, blundering along the same exhausted pathways, the same swings of the pendulum between talks and no talks.

Despite the sheer relentlessness of Pakistan’s campaigns, and the persistence of its amplifying hatred against India, no regime in Delhi has ever evolved a coherent strategic perspective or response to Pakistan’s sustained project of inflicting ‘death by a thousand cuts’ on India.

Indeed, successive governments in India have held stubbornly to the thesis that a ‘strong and stable Pakistan’ is in India’s interest, despite augmenting evidence that Pakistan’s internal difficulties and vulnerabilities have invariably brought great relief from Islamabad’s mischief, and that a ‘strong and stable’ enemy can hardly be in the best interest of any country.

Pakistani persistence and Indian incoherence has inflicted tremendous harm on India.

There Is No Global Jihadist 'Movement'

MARTHA CRENSHAW

MAR 11 2015

Source Link

The world of Islamist fighters is deeply fragmented and constantly shifting.

Wikimedia Commons/The AtlanticReports last week indicated that the Nusra Front, a major anti-Assad jihadist group, might be abandoning its affiliation with al-Qaeda due to a combination of leadership losses and internal dissent, though a Nusra spokesman has since denied that development. The group, otherwise known as Jabhat al-Nusra, was first formed in Syria as an independent affiliate of both al-Qaeda and ISIS, which were then allies. When al-Qaeda and ISIS parted ways, Nusra established itself as a rival to its former Islamic State sponsor out of loyalty to al-Qaeda. Even with that defection, however, the self-proclaimed Islamic State is becoming increasingly attractive to other members of the jihadist universe, with Boko Haram the latest group to sign on.

Such kaleidoscopic patterns are not uncommon: What’s sometimes referred to as the global jihadist “movement” is actually extremely fractured. It’s united by a general set of shared ideological beliefs, but divided organizationally and sometimes doctrinally. Whether to fight the “near enemy” (local regimes) or the “far enemy” (such as the United States and the West), for example, has been contentious since the 1990s, when Osama bin Laden declared war on the United States. Rivalry among like-minded militant groups is as common as cooperation. Identities and allegiances shift. Groups align and re-align according to changing expectations about the future of the conflicts they’re involved in, as well as a host of other factors, such as competition for resources, leadership transitions, and the defection of adherents to rival groups that appear to be on the ascendant.

This Week in War

March 13, 2015 

In America, Hillary Clinton continued to take fire for using a private email server for correspondence while she served as Secretary of State. Though Colin Powell also used a private email for correspondence while Secretary of State, some members of Congress have called for an investigation into the affair and connected it—wait for it—with investigations into the attack on the U.S. Embassy inBenghazi, Libya. Among the most vocal of Clinton’s critics was Senator Lindsey Graham, a member of the Senate Subcommittee on Technology who claims to have never sent an email in his life because he is too busy being “thoughtful.”

Rather than email, 47 U.S. Senators addressed a letter to the leadership of Iran, warning, threatening, or reminding them (depending upon who you ask) that congress or a future president could scuttle any deal President Barack Obama agrees with Tehran regarding their nuclear program. Many have accused the signatories of violating the Logan Act, which prevents U.S. government officials from conducting relations or negotiations with foreign officials. Ayatollah Khameini called the letter proof of America’s dishonesty and “internal disintegration.”

This past week the U.S. Senate also held hearings on the president’s authorization to use military force, or AUMF. No major news channel covered the hearings. And the room was reportedly half-empty. Or maybe it was half-full?

South America

U.S. Officials Say That ISIS Is Still Growing Despite Heavy Losses in Iraq and Syria

Helene Cooper, Anne Barnard and Eric Schmitt

March 13, 2015

ISIS Still on the Attack, Despite Internal Strife and Heavy Losses

WASHINGTON — The Islamic State is facing growing dissension among its rank-and-file fighters and struggling to govern towns and villages it has seized, but the militant Sunni group is still managing to launch attacks and expand its ideological reach outside of Iraq and Syria, senior American officials said.

In the seven months since allied warplanes in the American-led air campaign began bombing select Islamic State targets, the Sunni militancy, while marginally weaker, is holding its own, senior defense and intelligence officials said.

Pentagon officials expressed only cautious optimism on Thursday after the Islamic State lost much of the central Iraqi city of Tikrit following more than a week of fierce fighting, warning that it would be as difficult for Iraqi forces to hold the city as it was to liberate it. And even as the militants had a last stand in Tikrit, Islamic State fighters were mounting one of the fiercest assaults in months in the city of Ramadi, west of Baghdad. 

But in recent months tensions have become apparent inside the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL and Daesh. The troubles stem from new military and financial pressures and from the growing pains of a largely decentralized organization trying to hold together what it views as a nascent state while integrating thousands of foreign fighters with Iraqi and Syrian militants.

The tensions were described in recent interviews with a Syrian fighter who recently defected from the group and an Islamic State recruiter who still works with the group but is critical of some of its practices. The troubles were consistent with accounts from residents of areas that the Islamic State controls and from interviews with numerous Syrian activists who oppose both the Islamic State and the Syrian government. Those activists have recently fled from those areas but maintain extensive contacts there.

There are reports of dozens of executions and imprisonments of Islamic State fighters trying to flee the group. There are strains in fighting on multiple fronts, with some fighters being deployed to battles that, they complain, are not strategically important. There are complaints about salaries and living conditions, disputes over money and business opportunities, and allegations that commanders have left with looted cash and other resources.

And there is growing anecdotal evidence that some members of the group — particularly locals who may have joined out of opportunism or a sense that it was the best way to survive — have been repulsed by its extreme violence.

100 Men From Caribbean Islands Have Joined ISIS or Al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria

By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr.

March 13, 2015

Southcom Commander Discusses Recruit Movement to Syria

WASHINGTON, March 12, 2015 – The movement and tracking of recruits traveling from the Caribbean region to Syria to fight alongside Islamic extremists is concerning, Marine Corps Gen. John F. Kelly, commander of U.S. Southern Command, said today.

During a Pentagon news briefing, Kelly responded to reporters’ questions, which were generated by his testimony on Southcom’s posture earlier today before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

About 100 Recruits from Region

During his SASC testimony, the general said about 100 recruits have traveled from the Caribbean to Syria to fight alongside Islamic extremists.

“Everyone’s concerned too if they come home,” he said, “because if they went over radicalized, one would expect they’ll come back at least that radicalized.”

“Do we have any indication right now of … any scheme to attack the United States? No,” Kelly said.

The general said it’s a situation similar to the U.S. where “there’s some small number reportedly that have radicalized for one reason or another here in the United States.”

But much larger numbers of extremist recruits go from Western Europe into the fight in Syria, where they develop fighting skills, Kelly said.

Tracking Recruits

An immodest Iranian proposal

HUGH GUSTERSON

03/12/2015

An anthropologist, Gusterson is a professor of anthropology and sociology at George Mason University. His expertise is in nuclear culture, international security, and the anthropology of science....

LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND—In a worldwide news exclusive, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists can report that Iranian nuclear negotiators have shocked their American counterparts by announcing—after months of haggling over the minutiae of uranium enrichment—a 180-degree change in their negotiating position.

Looking tired after a negotiating session that stretched late into the night and apparently caught off-guard by a reporter’s question, a top Iranian negotiator, Arad Iqhal, offered the Bulletin a startling inside look at his country's new position: Iran has agreed to dismantle every bit of its nascent nuclear weapons capability, he said, if the United States complies with the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"The Iranian people can no longer withstand the sanctions," Mr. Iqhal said. "We have thrown in the towel. All the Americans have to do is follow a treaty they helped write back in the Beatles era. It should be simple."

US diplomats refused to confirm or deny having received the Iranian proposal. Senate Republicans immediately denounced it as treaty-mongering that threatens Israel. 

Over the last few months, negotiators from the major nuclear powers and Iran have sought to reach an agreement that limits Iran's nuclear program, focusing on moderate reductions in the infrastructure that could otherwise enable Iran to make a nuclear bomb. These reductions would be frozen in place for 10 years, keeping Iran from developing nuclear weapons; a relaxation of sanctions against Iran would presumably be offered as a quid pro. Until today's stunning turn of events, Western negotiators had tacitly conceded that they cannot turn the clock back to 2003. In 2003, when Iran had far fewer centrifuges than it has now, it made an exploratory offer through a Swiss intermediary to freeze its nuclear program and make peace with Israel in return for normalized relations with the United States. The Bush Administration ignored the attempted opening. 

Wanted: a party leader willing to talk about defence

James Forsyth

14 March 2015

In this election campaign, no one wants to mention the bear in the room

James Forsyth and John Bew discuss the lack of foreign policy in the election campaign

In the 1984 US presidential election, Ronald Reagan came up with an effective way of embarrassing his rival Walter Mondale over defence. ‘There’s a bear in the woods,’ ran his television advert, showing a grizzly bear wandering through a forest. ‘For some people, the bear is easy to see. Others don’t see it all.’ During the British general election campaign, the Russian bear isn’t making any attempt to hide — it is standing on its hind legs and pawing at the trees with its claws. Although everyone can see the bear, none of the political parties want to focus on it.

You wouldn’t know from this election campaign, but Europe is in crisis. On its eastern border, the threat from Russia is as great as at any point since the end of the Cold War. Crimea has been annexed and large parts of eastern Ukraine are under control of Russian-backed forces. Russian aircraft have even been taunting the RAF in the English Channel. The Baltic states are increasingly fearful that they will be next to suffer from Vladimir Putin’s attempt to reassert Russian dominance on its doorstep.

On Europe’s southern border, Islamic State continues to cause death and destruction — the recent decapitations in Libya were filmed along the shore to make the point that the jihadis have reached the Mediterranean. More worrying, perhaps, is the number of Europeans fighting for it. Last weekend, Manuel Valls, the French Prime Minister, warned that the number of Europeans who will have taken up arms with Isis may treble to 10,000 by the end of this year. As these radicalised youths return home, the terrorist threat in Europe will rise exponentially.

Obama Backs Tehran's Push for Hegemony

By Abraham Miller

March 12, 2015

What U.S. President Barack Obama has achieved is impossible, if not miraculous. He has pushed the Saudis, the Sunni Gulf states, Egypt, and the Israelis into each other's arms.

The president sees his negotiations with Iran as restricting Iran's nuclear ambitions. In reality, Obama has moved back the goalposts. The goal before was clear enough: to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear device. The goal now is to monitor a nuclear infrastructure which has a breakout capacity that can easily lead to a nuclear weapon.

The president has not flip-flopped this much on foreign policy since he had to decide what to do in Syria.

In both cases, Obama managed to inspire some confidence among the peoples of the region, which is why his policies have produced cooperation among unexpected partners, all of whom now feel betrayed by the president's embrace of Iran.

The president's supporters have argued that a nuclear deal is in no way contingent on Iran's foreign policy. Iran's hegemonic aspirations are dismissed as inconsequential. Its support of terrorists in the region and its export of terrorism overseas to kill Jews in Argentina are also said to be independent considerations.

Vladimir Putin Is Hiking the Appalachian Trail

ADAM CHANDLER

MAR 12 2015

The Russian leader hasn't been seen in public for a week, leading to some wild speculation about his whereabouts and well-being.

Alexei Nikolsky/Reuters/The AtlanticWhere were you when you heard that Vladimir Putin, fat on territorial conquest and thin on ruble value, had died at age 62? Probably the same place you were when you heard that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un had either suddenly disappeared, was thought to be dead, or was on a cheese bender.

On Thursday, the Internet once again went aflame with theories about the possible whereabouts and potential demise of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. According to reports, the last time Putin was seen in public was March 5, a week ago, when he met with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

"It offers evidence enough that Russia has become an outright dictatorship."Putin's health first became the topic of conjecture when he paused his recent flurry of globetrottingand canceled a trip to Kazakhstan earlier this week. The Kazakh government, as The Guardianreported, said that Putin had fallen ill.

Putin not only missed presidential pow-wows withBelarus and Kazakhstan, but a treaty signing in South Ossetia, Georgia's breakaway region. On Wednesday, the Kremlin posted pictures and particulars from Putin's meeting with Karelian chief Alexander Khudilaynen in Moscow, but that appears to have been a ruse. As Meduza noted,"a local business newspaper in Karelia, however, reported this meeting on March 5," one day after it took place. Khudilaynen was said to be far from Moscow on March 11.

DoD, intel community zero in on big data analytics

Amber Corrin, Senior Staff Write

March 12, 2015 

Defense Department and intelligence community officials are capitalizing on tech tools that make sense of vast quantities of big data, including with a new big data hub and app marketplace at the CIA.

The CIA next month will start using Cloudera's Enterprise Data Hub platform, which will pool standardized data from intelligence analysts across agencies for use by intelligence community (IC) decision-makers, according to CIO Doug Wolfe. The open-source big data platform and marketplace will be hosted on the IC's Amazon Web Services C2S private cloud, Wolfe said Feb. 25 at the Cloudera Federal Forum in McLean, Va.

The enterprise data hub agreements are set to last no more than three years as agency officials throughout DoD and IC look to exploit fast-moving technology – and move more quickly themselves. The goal is to keep pace with emerging threats and avoid getting stuck in proprietary solutions, focusing instead on open-source technology.

"I am concerned on the analytic front that we get locked in to certain solutions – that we believe we should put all our data in one place and we believe we have to run all of our data against any given tool or any given solution," Wolfe said. "I've got to believe that two years from now there's going to be the next generation of Spark or Hadoop or whatever that is and we're going to say we really need access to that and we really need to leverage that to make our mission work."

At DoD, officials are hoping to emulate the IC's strides in the cloud.

"You can talk about big data, you can talk about all kinds of new technology…but at the end of the day what does that mean? It means change," said Dave Bennett, director of the Defense Information Systems Agency's implementation and sustainment center. "DoD is not a big change agent. We are slow, we are cautious. If you expect us to move with any sort of speed, I would say good luck with that."

Yet despite DoD's caution in implementing new technologies, services and processes, it's something that must be done, if for no other reason than to maintain network security, Bennett noted.

How (and why) the CIA plans to expand cyber capabilities

By Sean Lyngaas 

Feb 24, 2015 

http://fcw.com/articles/2015/02/24/cia-expand-cyber.aspx 

CIA Director John Brennan's plan to ramp up the agency's cyber espionage capabilities and compete in a space the intelligence community has increasingly prioritized involves better integrating cybersecurity into human intelligence operations.

The agency's plans, first reportedby the Washington Post, involve boosting humint efforts by dispatching cyber specialists beyond their traditional enclave at the Information Operations Center, which analyzes foreign threats to U.S. computer systems, a former senior CIA official told FCW. Embedding cyber specialists into CIA operational divisions would help the cyber hands find better IT tools to support agency operations, the former official, who asked not to be identified, said.

Stephen Slick, another former CIA official who now heads the Intelligence Studies Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said the agency would do well to focus more on cyberspace.

"To the extent that the director's plans may involve highlighting cyber issues, that's entirely appropriate -- even overdue," Slick wrote in an email to FCW and other news outlets. "Advances in digital technology are having a revolutionary impact on the intelligence business, and it's important for CIA to adapt its collection and covert action missions to account for the new opportunities and dangers that are presented."

Brennan's "plans call for increased use of cyber capabilities in almost every category of operations," from recruiting informants to attacking the Islamic State, the Post reported. The CIA director has also considered creating a "cyber-directorate" at the agency that would elevate the role of IT experts in intelligence operations, the report says, citing current and former CIA officials.

The reported cyber plans are part of a larger, ongoing reevaluation of the agency's operations and personnel. CIA spokesman Dean Boyd said the agency had no comment on the reported cyber plans "given that final decisions have not yet been made with respect to internal agency modernization efforts."

A source close to the House Intelligence Committee, however, told FCW that Brennan gave the the panel's leadership a general overview of the agency's reorganization plans but hardly any information on the cyber component. The committee is awaiting more details on the CIA's reported cyber plans, that source said.

Communication on cybersecurity policy has previously been a point of contention between the Obama administration and Congress. House Intelligence Committee members were irked that they were not briefed ahead of the administration's recent announcement of a new cyber intelligence agency, the source said.

Overshadowed by NSA

Brennan has described cyberspace as a "double-edged sword" for the intelligence community. "Digital footprints may enable us to track down a suspected terrorist, but they may leave our officers vulnerable as well," he said in a speech at Georgetown University last June.

The CIA's cyber capabilities are generally overshadowed by those of the National Security Agency, which has more manpower to tackle cyberspace and often budgetary support to boot. The CIA requested $685.4 million for computer network operations in fiscal 2013, compared with $1 billion requested by the NSA, according to a classified budget former NSA contractor Edward Snowden shared with the Washington Post.

Drawing back the curtain on cyberwar

By Sean Lyngaas 

Mar 13, 2015 

http://fcw.com/articles/2015/03/13/bookshelf-drawing-back-the-curtain-on-cyberwar.aspx 

Shane Harris' new book details the turning points and turf battles in federal cybersecurity policy.

Journalist Shane Harris has written a richly detailed, page-turning recent history of the militarization of cyberspace. The combination of thoroughness and accessibility makes "@War: The Rise of the Military-Internet Complex" an important contribution to the ever-changing, seemingly unfathomable field of cybersecurity.

Harris offers an inside account of how, over the course of more than a decade, U.S. military, intelligence and civilian agencies have ramped up their cyber capabilities to try to stay ahead of threats posed by criminal hackers and nation states. But the book does more than chronicle that transformation. It also picks up on the personalities and bureaucratic turf battles behind it and reflects on the broader implications for the security and openness of the Internet.

The book's subtitle is a variant of President Dwight Eisenhower's warning against the potentially outsize influence of industry on U.S. defense policy. The military-Internet complex treats the Web as a battlefield, writes Harris, a senior correspondent at The Daily Beast. That battlefield is full of government and corporate secrets, and it has spawned a lucrative market for protecting them.

FCW readers will appreciate the book's detailing of the interagency tensions that come with grappling with a new domain. The 2009 birth of U.S. Cyber Command under the leadership of the National Security Agency director gave NSA even more clout among agencies in cyberspace. But Jane Holl Lute, who became deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security that year, challenged the notion that NSA was uniquely suited to defend civilian cyberspace, Harris writes.

"Pretend the Manhattan phone book is the universe of malware," she is quoted as telling colleagues. "NSA only has about one page of the book."

That turf battle is likely far from settled, and DHS has continued to expand its own cyber-defense capabilities.

Cyberwarfare is not a new concept, but it is a fairly new practice. One of the pivotal moments came in 2007, during the surge of U.S. forces in Iraq, according to Harris. He profiles Bob Stasio, then an Army lieutenant whose signals-intelligence platoon is credited with tracking down hundreds of insurgents. He used cell phone signals to determine insurgents' locations and sent reports back to commanders to correlate the data with a wider view of the battlefield.

Whatever Became of the Reports That North Korea Was Developing an ICBM?

John Schilling

March 13, 2015

The past year might seem to have been one of conspicuous inactivity in North Korea’s long-range rocket program. The last flight test was the December 2012 launch of an Unha-3 carrying North Korea’s first successful satellite. Since then we have seen only the usual Scuds and Nodongs and possibly an improved variant of the short-range, solid-fueled KN-02 “Toksa.” The Musudan and KN-08 missiles so proudly displayed in July 2013 have not been seen since, and neither has been flight tested. In short, one might be tempted to conclude that the regime has given up its pursuit of long-range weapons.

But conspicuous inactivity can mask quiet activity, visible mainly to the sort of people who spend their hours scrutinizing satellite imagery of obscurea corners of the DPRK. I’m not one of them, but I am on their mailing lists. And these observers have seen interesting developments lately. Possibly most significant in the near-term have been reports of the continuation of the rocket engine ground testing that has been underway at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station since2012, if not before. There has also been significant infrastructure construction at that facility, including a recently modified gantry tower sized for a space launch vehicle (SLV) much larger than the Unha-3. Most recently, a potential test facility for a submarine missile launch system was identified, which, while certainly not suited for long-range rockets, indicates active exploration by the North of possible new launch platforms. It is worth emphasizing, however, that such a development is likely far in the future.

The possibility that North Korea may have begun to move on from the Unha-3 SLV is not surprising; most nations retire their first SLV after one to three successful flights. After demonstrating basic spaceflight technology at minimum cost, a more sophisticated and capable design is usually developed for operational space missions. With a larger gantry waiting at Sohae, this appears to be the North’s plan, and it will be interesting to see what sort of space missions are on Pyongyang’s agenda. A North Korean astronaut may be far in the future but communications satellites in geostationary orbit or spy satellites may not.

Airbus Building France’s First Network of SIGINT Spy Satellites

March 13, 2015

France’s DGA Compliments Airbus Defence And Space… You’re On…Build Three CERES Satellites

[SatNews] Airbus Defence and Space has been selected by the DGA (Direction générale de l’armement) to build the three CERES satellites, which will provide France with its first operational SIGINT capability.

“The fact that the DGA has entrusted Airbus Defence and Space with the construction of the CERES satellites demonstrates the quality of our expertise and technology, acquired through our successful development of the ESSAIM and ELISA demonstrators,” said François Auque, Head of Space Systems. “Signals intelligence is flagged as a top priority in the French Defence and National Security white paper. Airbus Defence and Space, which started working withThales through CERES, is proud to provide France with its industrial and technological expertise, thus confirming its position as the prime contractor for all French space-based intelligence systems.”

The CERES (Capacité de Renseignement Electromagnétique Spatiale or Space Signal Intelligence Capacity) system comprises three closely positioned satellites that are designed to detect and locate ground signals, along with ground control and user ground segments. CERES is due to enter service towards 2020.

Airbus Defence and Space has been entrusted with the space segment comprising the three satellites, while Thales is responsible for the payload and the user ground segment. The two manufacturers are the joint prime contractors for the entire system. In addition, Thales Alenia Space acts as a subcontractor to Airbus Defence and Space in supplying the platform.

Intelligence is one of four priorities identified by the white paper. The 2014-2019 Military Planning Law has translated this priority into programs and funding, which include signals intelligence and one of its operational uses, the CERES program.

This satellite system will give France a capability that few countries possess. In designing and building CERES, Airbus Defence and Space and Thales will draw on the experience they acquired jointly from the ESSAIM and ELISA demonstrators.

U.S. Defense and Intelligence Computer Networks - An Order of Battle Study

Peter Koop

March 13, 2015

From the Snowden revelations we learned not only about NSA data collection projects, but also about many software tools that are used to analyze and search those data. These programs run on secure computer networks, isolated from the public internet. Here we will provide an overview of these networks that are used by the US military and US itelligence agencies.

Besides computer networks, they also use a number of dedicated telephone networks, but gradually these are transferred from traditional circuit-switched networks to Voice over IP (VoIP). This makes it possible to have only one IP packet-switched network for both computer and phone services. It seems that for example NSA’s NSTS phone system is now fully IP-based.

US national networks

The main US military and intelligence computer networks are (of course) only accessible for authorized personnel from the United States. Special security measures are in place to prevent interception by foreign intelligence agencies. Most of the tools and programs used by NSA run on JWICS and NSANet, but here we only mention them when this is confirmed by documents.

DNI-U (Director National Intelligence-Unclassified)

- Until 2006: Open Source Information System (OSIS)

- Classification level: Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU, color code: green)

- Access: US intelligence users

- Controlled by: DNI-CIO Intelligence Community Enterprise Services office (ICES)

- Purpose: Providing open source information; consists of a group of secure intranets used by the US Intelligence Community (IC)

Social Media Is Making It Increasingly Difficult to Combat Terrorists, CIA Chief

March 14, 2015

U.S. CIA chief says social media ‘greatly amplifies’ terror threat

(Reuters) - Social media and other technology are making it increasingly difficult to combat militants who are using such modern resources to share information and conduct operations, the head of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency said on Friday.

CIA Director John Brennan, in a speech in New York, said such communications heighten the challenge of dealing with diffuse threats and attacks across the world from groups like Islamic State, known also as ISIL, and others. 

"New technologies can help groups like ISIL coordinate operations, attract new recruits, disseminate propaganda, and inspire sympathizers across the globe to act in their name," Brennan said, using an acronym for the militant group that has taken hold in Syria and Iraq.

"The overall threat of terrorism is greatly amplified by today’s interconnected world, where an incident in one corner of the globe can instantly spark a reaction thousands of miles away; and where a lone extremist can go online and learn how to carry out an attack without ever leaving home," Brennan said.

Speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations, Brennan cited a recent spate of attacks, including shootings at the French satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, at a Pakistani school, and at a cafe in Copenhagen, Denmark.

"These attacks underscore a disturbing trend that we have been monitoring for some time: The emergence of a terrorist threat that is increasingly decentralized, difficult to track, and difficult to thwart," he said.

What the Ferguson Report Really Exposed

Hans A. von Spakovsky

March 13, 2015 

Media coverage has obscured what is perhaps the most important finding regarding the shooting death of Michael Brown.

We’ve all seen them—the unsolicited, chain emails that occasionally dump tasteless or racist jokes in our inboxes. I delete them immediately. End of story.

Yet, somehow, the media has obsessed over the (admittedly noxious) emails found in the files of a few individuals in the Ferguson, Mo., Police Department. The emails were noted in a March 4 report issued by the Special Litigation Section (SLS) of the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division. That report employs some rather dubious statistics to claim a “pattern and practice” of discriminatory behavior by the Ferguson Police Department.

The SLS report grabbed headlines and sparked renewed protests in Ferguson. It also obscured what is perhaps the most important finding regarding the shooting death of Michael Brown back in August 2014 – namely, the complete exoneration of Officer Darren Wilson. 

Fervor generated by the “pattern and practice” report blinded much of the country to the second report issued that day by the Civil Rights Division’s Criminal Section. It clearly confirms the validity of the local grand jury’s decision not to indict Officer Wilson last November. It also belies the media-propagated myth that Michael Brown was shot in the back while trying to surrender with his hands in the air.

That storyline was a total fabrication conjured up by dishonest witnesses who lied to the police and reporters. Many of the witnesses “who originally stated Brown had his hands up in surrender recanted their original accounts,admitting they did not witness the shooting.” [Emphasis added.] Critically, DOJ’s investigation “did not reveal any eyewitness who stated that Brown said ‘don’t shoot.’” [emphasis added.]

Trouble in Paradise: Democracy Retreats in the Maldives

By Ankit Panda

March 14, 2015

Former Maldivian President Mohamed Nasheed has been sentenced to 13 years in prison on terrorism charges. 

The political crisis that emerged in the Maldives last month, after former President Mohamed Nasheed was physically dragged to a show-trial at the hands of a stacked court, took a turn for the worse on Friday. Nasheed, the country’s first democratically elected president after 30 years of autocracy and, most recently, the leader of the opposition, was sentenced to 13 years in prison. He was found guilty on charges of terrorism for ordering the arrest of a judge back when he was president in 2012 — an event that ultimately triggered the end of his administration via an effective coup. Abdulla Yameen, the current president, has initiated a crackdown on the opposition amid waning support. Nasheed’s arrest all but confirms that the Maldives’ nascent democracy is firmly on the retreat.

Judge Abdulla Didi, the presiding juror over the case, noted that ”The prosecution’s evidence proved beyond reasonable doubt that Nasheed ordered the chief judge’s arrest or forceful abduction and detention on Girifushi island” back in 2012. Nasheed’s supporters claim that the case was motivated by the political interests of the current regime. The decision was unanimously supported by the three-judge panel that heard Nasheed’s case and was upheld by the office of the president. Last month, as The Diplomat reported, Nasheed was unceremoniously dragged to court. His treatment at the hands of security personnel drew protests in which pro-government supporters clashed with opposition supporters. International observers, including India and the United States, expressed concern following Nasheed’s arrest.

According to reports by Reuters and others, Nasheed’s sentencing did not result in an immediate profusion of political chaos in Male. Opposition supporters had dispersed by the time of Nasheed’s sentencing. Following his sentencing, Nasheed issued a statement in which he called on his supporters to “confront the dictatorial power of [the Yameen] regime.” He added that his supporters ought “to change this government and work toward forming a government that would pave the way for the people’s development and prosperity.” Based on Nasheed’s statements and aearlier protests, the former president’s arrest could pave the way for broader clashes and political violence in the Maldives.

As I noted earlier, the political crisis in the Maldives puts India, the most proximate regional power, in a position where it has to act. Already, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi canceled a scheduled visit to Male amid concerns over the state of democracy in the country. With Nasheed’s arrest, New Delhi risks having the Maldives slip out of its strategic area of influence entirely. The Yameen government reacted harshly to Indian concern over its handling of Nasheed’s case. The Maldivian foreign minister, Dunya Mamoon, issued a statement noting that Male ”will not take instructions from a foreign government.” Nasheed and the Maldivian opposition more generally are considerably more pro-India than the Yameen government. Given Indian concerns over Chinese strategic encroachments into the Indian Ocean, New Delhi will be eager to see a fair trial for Nasheed and, more importantly, guarantees that Maldivian democracy is not regressing.

At last, a Western country stands up to Saudi Arabia on human rights

By Ishaan Tharoor 

March 12 

Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom gestures during an interview with Sweden's TT News Agency at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in central Stockholm on March 11. (Claudio Bresciani/TT News Agency via Reuters) 

The Swedish government this week decided to scrap an arms deal with Saudi Arabia, effectively bringing to an end a decade-old defense agreement with the kingdom. The move followed complaints made by the Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom that she was blocked by the Saudis from speaking about democracy and women's rights at a gathering of the Arab League in Cairo. 

Tensions between Stockholm and Riyadh have grown so acute that Saudi Arabia recalled its aambassador to Sweden on Wednesday. The Swedish foreign ministry had published Wallstrom's planned remarks in Cairo, which made no specific reference to Saudi Arabia but did urge reform on issues of women's rights. 

The Saudi foreign ministry deemed her comments about being barred from speaking "offensive" and "blatant interference in its internal affairs," according to the BBC. In an interview with Swedish media, Wallstrom haddescribed the punishment for a dissident blogger who was sentenced to 1,000 lashes as "medieval." 

Dutch Vote a Barometer for the European Electoral Landscape

Kaj Leers

March 12, 2015

The two coalition parties in power in the Netherlands are destined for crushing defeats in elections on March 18 that will determine the makeup of the new Senate. Polls show the opposition anti-Islam Freedom Party of Geert Wilders in the lead.

A big loss in the Senate could spell the end of the country's coalition government. More likely, the country's mainstream parties will take one look at the polls and decide not to call for new national elections - which could see formerly fringe parties take firm control - thus leaving an effectively delegitimized administration in charge. We take a look at the major parties involved in a country that is increasingly seen as a bellwether for Western European politics.

When the polls closed in the Dutch parliamentary elections of September 2012 and it turned out that two centrist parties had won massive victories, it was optimistically dubbed the "Defeat of the Extremists." Despite being ideological adversaries, the two winning parties - the center-left Social Democrats (PvdA) and the center-right conservative Liberals (VVD) - smoothly and quickly formed a coalition government. A bit too smoothly, according to many of their erstwhile voters.

The social-democratic PvdA and free-market liberals of the VVD sorted their coalition not by compromising on the issues, but by exchanging items on their political wish lists. The VVD, which had campaigned on a right-wing platform of crime-fighting, immigration, and integration, got what it wanted in those areas, while the PvdA was able to carry out its reformist agenda on health care, social security, and education.

Judging by recent polls and the 2014 municipal elections, voters of both parties seem not only disappointed - they are deeply disgusted.