THE UNCERTAIN ROLE OF THE TANK IN MODERN WAR: LESSONS FROM THE ISRAELI EXPERIENCE IN HYBRID WARFARE

ByChristopher L. Budihas

July 6, 2016

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In this Land Warfare Paper, Kim presents a case study of the Israel Defense Forces’ experience during Operation Protective Edge (2014) in order to inform the role of the M1 Abrams by analyzing hybrid threat trends, examining Army force-structure challenges and assessing the relevancy of combined-arms maneuver—in which the M1 Abrams tank is a key element—in the future operating environment. Based on this case study, the author argues that the role of this tank in the Army of 2015–2025 is to provide a mobile and survivable precision firepower platform to execute effective combined-arms operations against a sophisticated hybrid threat in urban and conventional environments. Given the nature of the military profession and the increasingly limited resources provided by our nation to execute combat, the responsibility to properly allocate resources, direct training and develop force structure is great. The Army must consider modernizing its armored platforms with an active armor protection system and improved munitions.

Debunking Lynch Mobs: Ethical Approach To Online Harassment And Free Speech – Analysis

BY OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION 

NOVEMBER 4, 2016

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In 2013, Justine Sacco ended up sabotaging her own career with a tweet just before boarding a plane to South Africa: “Going to Africa, I hope I don’t catch AIDS. It’s a joke. I’m white.” Sacco was then the global head of communications for the digital media conglomerate, InterActiveCorp (IAC). She had some 200 followers on Twitter. That tweet, intended to be sarcastic, sparked what would be called, “an ideological crusade.” Twitter users contacted Sacco’s boss, who in turn tweeted: “This is an intolerable and offensive comment. The employee is under question, we cannot contact her until she gets off the plane.” This, for many, was a sign that their complaints and criticisms “paid off.” The anger quickly turned into euphoria: “I’m dying to see Justine Sacco get down that plane”; “Dumb bitch, we’ll see how you get fired live.”

Since Sacco worked for a private company and in the area of communications, her boss had every right to fire her. Perhaps Sacco’s tweet was a mistake but she should have known about the scope of these blunders within the competence of her work. Justine Sacco was not fired just because a “lynch mob” on the Internet asked for her head. Rather, she was fired because a mistake she made at work – while her job was managing communications – triggered a virtual version of a “lynch mob”.

In social media, language co-exists in the paradox of having an oral intent but a written format. What we say online is thought with immediacy and somehow, we still expect our words to be forgotten in the same way any reckless joke we say to our friends would be. But our words on social media are of a written nature and a message can be on the internet for eternity; since dissemination over the internet has a global reach, our words are very susceptible to being taken out of context. This has ethical and moral implications and requires changes in our behaviour. It is not the same for Justine Sacco to say her tweet as a joke to a friend (who perhaps will quickly forget it), than to say it in writing, in a social network, where it can be read by people who do not know her enough to understand her sense of humour and intentions. The same tweet would have different weight if it were written in a book or in an official statement letter; in these cases it would be much more serious than something said casually on social media. Not everyone is obliged to such high degrees of political correctness, but everyone with a public persona – journalists, communicators, politicians, public figures – should have, if not considerable care, at least awareness of how technology amplifies the impact of their words (and even more so of their mistakes).

How COIN Theory Explains Organizational Change: An MWI Report

by Douglas Pryer 
Sep 25, 2016 

Counterinsurgency theory—the theoretical underpinnings of U.S. COIN doctrine, especially as expressed in the “Strategic Principles” and “Counterinsurgency Paradoxes” sections of Field Manual 3-24, Insurgencies and Countering Insurgencies—shares much in common with popular change models for transforming organizations. In this new MWI Report, Non-Resident Fellow, LTC Douglas A. Pryer writes that since the human dynamics underlying all group competitions are similar (whether at the nation-state or small organization level), all leaders can benefit from applying COIN theory to achieve significant organizational change in order to out compete rivals. Conversely, he argues, military theorists and doctrine writers could improve both COIN theory and U.S. doctrine by studying and adapting elements of change models developed for civilian leaders. Indeed, it is likely that our nation’s ineffective counterinsurgencies in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan would have charted a better course if our doctrine during these conflicts had included key aspects of popular change models.

Read or download full report here.

[Image: US Army Flickr; U.S. Army Sgt. Larry J. Isbell of Oklahoma City, Ok., representing the National Guard, watches his firing lane for targets during the M-4 Range Qualification event during the Department of the Army’s 10th annual Best Warrior Competition held on Fort Lee, Va., Oct. 21, 2010]

A Ready, Modern Force: Ready for Today, Prepared forTomorrow

ByMichael B. Kim

Experts from the CNAS Defense Strategies and Assessments Program participated in a panel discussion on defense spending. Senior Fellows Jerry Hendrix, Paul Scharre, and Elbridge Colby focused on maintaining readiness for today’s threats while modernizing the force for future challenges. The experts assumed a two percent increase in defense spending above PB17 levels – a realistic level given political dynamics. By investing in a diverse high-low mix of forces for the range of DoD missions, rather than attempting to field a one-size-fits-all “utility infielder” force, Hendrix, Scharre, and Colby modernized the force while maintaining capacity.

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Foreign Fighters in Their Own Words: Using YouTube as a Source

Kim Mans and Ruben Tuitel

11 Oct 2016

Gaining more insight into the foreign fighting phenomenon can be difficult. Foreign fighters are often in hard-to-reach areas and war-torn countries which makes it dangerous for researchers to travel to these places. Social media platforms provide researchers with additional possibilities to gain knowledge of these fighters without any direct risks that normally exist when travelling to war zones. While Facebook and Twitter have proved to be useful in foreign fighter research, YouTube provides a different insight into the lives of foreign fighters. By analysing what is said in videos, answers to basic questions like: ‘who are these foreign fighters?’, ‘why do these foreign fighters travel to Syria?’ and ‘where will they go next when the fight is over?’, can add to thick descriptions in foreign fighter research. While the use of YouTube has its advantages, such as easy access to the thoughts and motives of foreign fighters, it also has its limitations. The reliability of their statements in the videos cannot be guaranteed and a small sample size can undermine the reliability.

Read the Report.

How to cite: K. Mans and R. Tuitel. “Foreign Fighters in Their Own Words: Using YouTube as a Source”, The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague (2016).

The Emerging Political Economy of OBOR: The Challenges of Promoting Connectivity in Central Asia and Beyond https://www.csis.org/analysis/emerging-political-economy-obo

Combating Terrorism Center (CTC)

· CTC Sentinel, October 2016, v. 9, no. 10 https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/october-2016

o A View from the CT Foxhole: An Interview with LTG(R) Charles T. Cleveland, former Commanding General, USASOC

o Revising the History of al-Qa`ida’s Original Meeting with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi

EVIDENCE OF AN AGGRESSIVE NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY?

October 18, 2016

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In this Land Warfare Paper, Budihas looks back to six years ago when a group of defense policy analysts studied and wrote about India’s status and projected growth. Collectively, these authors claimed that India was increasing its military capacity commensurate with its rising economic power, and they suggested that the United States could influence India to use its modernizing military to support U.S. goals vis-à-vis China. Current evidence, however, in contrast with the events forecasted by these writers, reveals that India has shown neither the political fortitude nor the military capability to prosecute aggressive security strategies. In point of fact, India gives its domestic economy priority over military spending. Ultimately, then, it would be a miscalculation for the United States to rely on India to counterbalance China in the Asia–Pacific.

ON CAMPAIGN PLAN PHASING: SIX-PHASE OR UNCONSTRAINED?

DAVID MAXWELL

NOVEMBER 3, 2016

http://warontherocks.com/2016/11/on-campaign-plan-phasing-six-phase-or-unconstrained/

In any problem where an opposing force exists and cannot be regulated, one must foresee and provide for alternative courses. Adaptability is the law which governs survival in war as in life … To be practical, any plan must take account of the enemy’s power to frustrate it; the best chance of overcoming such obstruction is to have a plan that can be easily varied to fit the circumstances met.

-Sir Basil H. Liddel-Hart (Strategy, 1954 )

Lauren Fish’s excellent article on the joint phasing construct illustrates the two challenges we have with planning.

On the one hand, we have the science of war that is mainly the concern of “force providers,” the services and joint staff responsible for allocating forces, getting those forces to the theater of operations, and then resupplying them (the major functions of Transportation Command). This is why planners used to say that “the TPFDD [Time Phased Force Deployment Data] is the plan.” The TPFDD drove operations. How and in what order forces arrived in theater drove the plan, though the order of arrival of forces is theoretically based on the theater commander’s requirements. This was the essence of numbered war plans prior to 9/11.

On the other hand, we have actual warfighting. While science plays an enormous role in warfighting because firepower, mass, correlation of forces are so important, the plan must incorporate the art of war to ultimately succeed. In the 1990’s, theater commanders designed the war plans for warfighting and gave requirements for forces to the force provider for resourcing without regard to the four phase construct that Fish shows. That construct was merely illustrative. Some plans had five phases, some had seven, and some even had sub-phases (e.g., phase IIA, phase IIB). Theater commanders and planners enjoyed the latitude to develop a phasing construct that suited the conditions and threats the theater faced. Yes, Fish is correct in that that a common assumption was that an enemy would attack or invade the territory of a friend, partner, or ally and the United States would have to intervene. Still, the plans were not necessarily the “paint by numbers” construct that became the norm with the six-phase template of the post-9/11 world.

Pakistan And India Mutually Expel Diplomats – OpEd

BY DR. ABDUL RUFF

NOVEMBER 4, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/04112016-pakistan-and-india-mutually-expel-diplomats-oped/

As it is known, Kashmir is the chief cause of tensions between heavily armed and nuclearized South Asian nations India and Pakistan, joint occupiers, along with veto power China, of Jammu Kashmir. China has taken a part of Azad Kashmir from Pakistani possession most probably on payment basis and does not ask for more lands from India which is eager to mend ways with Asian superpower so that Pakistan stands isolated internationally without any big supporter to question Indian action against Pakistan.

Since the world powers and UNSC have refused to end genocides in Kashmir perpetrated by Indian forces that enjoy special military powers gifted by the fanatic regime, Kashmir Muslim continue to die, falling victim to modern colonialism religiously promoted by India with blessing form USA and Russia. That is indeed Himalayan shame.

It looks like the South Asian nuclear giants are bent upon showcasing their prowess by engaging themselves in regular mutual clashes in order only to terrorize the Kashmiris besieged between them and find vital space in international media and forums. They have been successful.

Interestingly, both sides typically refute the other’s version of events. New Delhi protested against the alleged mutilation of the body of an Indian soldier by an attacker who escaped across the Line of Control after “committing this heinous crime”. The press wing of the Pakistani military said India had committed 178 cease-fire violations this year, killing 19 civilians and injuring 80 more.

Pakistan, India And The Game Of Thrones – OpEd

BY VISHAKHA AMITABH HOSKOTE 

NOVEMBER 4, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/04112016-pakistan-india-and-the-game-of-thrones-oped/

In International Politics (IP), the Game Theory is a model of a zero sum game which describes a conflict scenario in which a protagonist’s total loss is his enemy’s total gain. The sum total of the loss and gain is zero. In IP as Zawodny opines some international conflicts today can be resolved only by situations in which the warring factions don’t lose and in which both may sometimes win.

So is the Game Theory shifting the fulcrum of conflict between Pakistan and India towards settlement via international and regional agencies? The security dilemma or better still the Prisoners’ Dilemma plays a crucial role here. A nation like Pakistan faces dilemma without knowing about India’s intentions and vice versa. Both the nations want to resolve matters but with the K question being a permanent bone of contention it is very unlikely that something constructive will come up in the near future.

After the Uri attacks by Pakistan backed terrorists and retaliatory surgical strikes by India on Pakistani terror camps, tensions escalated between India and Pakistan; so much so that a well known Indian producer was stopped from releasing his movie for casting an actor from Pakistan. Nationalistic fervour (read tempers) stands at an all time high, with irresponsible media on both sides gleefully cashing in on the state of affairs as they are. In this game of proxy wars and actual wars is it possible to settle matters amicably? Earlier this year, following the killing of Hizb-ul-Mujahideen operative Burhan Wani in the Kashmir valley the media was barred from covering the massive protests in the valley against the Indian Army. Though this was done ostensibly to avoid further escalation of violence, yet amidst all the brouhaha, tensions continued to escalate. The war of words on primetime television kept getting louder and none of the parties was willing to confess. The prisoners’ dilemma was evident.

Myanmar: Ground Zero For China-India Energy Competition – Analysis

By Michael Hart 
NOVEMBER 4, 2016

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Since the early 1990s, China’s remarkable economic growth has led to a dramatic increase in its domestic energy needs, prompting its state-owned national oil companies (NOCs) to embark upon a worldwide search for oil and gas reserves. This strategy has been successful in diversifying import sources and satisfying the demands of a growing economy, yet at the same time has increased dependence on politically-unstable suppliers in Africa and the Middle East. Within the last decade this has raised concerns in Beijing, leading the Chinese government to focus on locating reserves and improving energy infrastructure closer to home in Southeast Asia, placing neighboring Myanmar at the heart of its ambitious strategy to ensure energy security for generations to come.

China has been the dominant external actor in Myanmar’s fast-growing energy sector since the mid-2000s, tempted by the opportunity to build and finance projects on its doorstep in a previously military-led authoritarian country where many Western governments refused to operate. Despite the introduction of reforms in Myanmar since 2011, the partnership between the two countries appears to have grown stronger, with stable bilateral relations based on trade, investment, and energy co-operation. However, since pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi was elected Myanmar’s de-facto leader in the historic election of November 2015, many have highlighted the country’s sensitivity towards China’s growing influence in the region. At present, it can be questioned whether China will retain its leading role in Myanmar’s lucrative energy sector, amidst uncertainty over Chinese-financed projects and growing competition from India and the West.

In terms of China’s energy security, Myanmar is of vital geostrategic significance given its access to the Indian Ocean and Andaman Sea. China sought to take advantage of Myanmar’s potential as an overland transportation route through launching the China-Myanmar Oil and Gas Pipeline project, which began construction in 2009. The initial agreement was signed in 2008 between China’s National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Myanmar’s Ministry of Energy; it sought to build a US$2.3bn crude oil pipeline and a US$2bn natural gas pipeline spanning the length of the country, running from ports on the west coast to mainland China. With both projects now completed, the natural gas pipeline extends for 793km to Yunnan province, transporting gas from the Shwe natural gas fields off the Arakan Coast. China was awarded exclusive purchasing rights back in 2008, as part of an agreement to export 6.5tn cubic feet of natural gas from the Shwe fields to China over the next 30 years. The oil pipeline is also now operational, running parallel to the gas pipeline and covering a distance of 771km, transporting oil from the Middle East and Africa to Southwest China.

Time to Break Pakistan's Security-Only Mentality

Abdul BasitZoha Waseem

November 3, 2016

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Pakistan’s checkered history of state building is marked by prolonged military rule and intermittent stints by civilian governments. Since the restoration of democratic governance in 2008, the institutionalization of democratic norms has been under tremendous stress, frequently leading to civil-military tensions.

The fledgling democratic process is trying to find its place in the country’s complicated decision-making machinery, where institutional roles collide and mandates overlap. The marginal civilian sources of input in the country’s security and foreign policies, in spite of the supremacy and sovereignty of the parliament as the apex state institution, are at the heart of this never-ending struggle. So far, civilian efforts to restore the institutional balance have not made much headway.

The federal government’s indirect and muted criticism of the military establishment, while struggling to keep good governance on track, has only strengthened the military’s narrative: civilian regimes are not competent enough to run Pakistan’s domestic security, national security and foreign policies. The recent episode, concerning Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his camp talking tough with military top brass, instructing them to take action against certain terrorist groups and then leaking the proceedings of this high-level meeting to a prominent journalist from the English-language daily Dawn, has only undermined the government’s own credibility. These recent events have played directly in favor of the military’s narrative.

The US Will Win the Cyber War With China in 2017

By Greg Austin

November 01, 2016

http://thediplomat.com/2016/11/the-us-will-win-the-cyber-war-with-china-in-2017/

It is now time to focus more on the ways in which cyber military capability can transform military power in wartime. 

In 2015, the Rand Corporation published a courageous assessment of the war-fighting potential of China and the United States. It assessed that the Americans would have a clear advantage in cyber war scenarios involving Taiwan or the Spratly Islands in 2017.

The authors’ confidence was buttressed by their conclusion that out of another 16 sets of conventional military capability comparisons (such as naval and air), the United States forces enjoyed at least parity in eight and a clear advantage in another six. In other words, China loses in almost all scenarios of military confrontation.

This report is one of the best-ever net assessments of U.S. and Chinese military capabilities that is available in the public domain.

The report flies in the face of the defeatism and pessimism endemic in U.S. political discourse about threats from a rising China. The report received surprisingly little serious media coverage in the United States, and has fared only modestly in subsequent coverage by U.S. scholars.

Of some note, the report’s overall assessment goes very close to how I would read Chinese assessments of their weaknesses relative to the United States.

People's Liberation Army Reforms and Their Ramifications

by Cristina L. Garafola

September 23, 2016

http://www.rand.org/blog/2016/09/pla-reforms-and-their-ramifications.html

People's Liberation Army soldiers take part in a march at a naval base in Hong Kong July 1, 2016

At the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee in November 2013, the Communist Party of China formally announced a series of major reforms[1] to the People's Liberation Army (PLA). So far, those reforms have included a reduction of 300,000 personnel, a reorganization of the former seven Military Regions into five “theater commands,” and the restructuring of the former four General Departments into 15 smaller organizations that all report directly to the Central Military Commission (CMC). Official media coverage has also detailed an extensive anti-corruption campaign that has led to disciplinary action against dozens of high-ranking PLA officers, as well as plans for an end to fee-based services that had been run by PLA personnel as secondary sources of income.

This newest round of reforms has been portrayed as a far-reaching process for both the PLA and Chinese society as a whole. It is expected to last until 2020, and will improve the military's efficiency, warfighting capability, and—most importantly, from the Party's perspective—its political loyalty. However, the reforms also challenge entrenched interests within the PLA, and could lead to reluctance within the military to adjust to new realities. Nevertheless, the reforms will likely succeed due both to recognition within the PLA of continued weakness in operational capabilities and to the senior Party leadership's ability to co-opt support from various groups within the institution.

The Rationale for Reform

The main goals of the reforms are to guide the PLA toward the “correct political direction” of Communist Party control and to improve the PLA's ability to fight and win wars.

China's Air Force Is Fixing Its Shortcomings

by Lyle J. Morris

https://www.rand.org/blog/2016/10/chinas-air-force-is-fixing-its-shortcomings.html

Pilots of China's J-10 fighter jet from the PLAAF Aerobatics Team prepare before a media demonstration at the Korat Royal Thai Air Force Base, November 24, 2015

In a seminal RAND Project Air Force report written over two decades ago, entitled “Russia's Air Power at the Crossroads” (PDF), the author concluded that the Soviet air force had achieved marked improvement in the tactical skills of its fighter pilots, yet most pilots were still “bound by a heavily scripted tactical repertoire that was all but completely dominated by ground control.” Such scripted training scenarios, the report continued, “left [pilots] little room for exercising the free-form initiative and adaptability that had long been a hallmark of Western tactical air practice.”

Similar things can be said about today's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). The PLAAF is one of the largest and most capable forces in the world in terms of quantity and technology, but Western analysts have long questioned its rigid, outdated approach to pilot training—relying heavily on ground control and scripted environments to achieve training objectives. The prevailing view among many Western observers is that Chinese fighter pilots lack the tactical mindset to engage and prevail in a dynamic, unscripted combat environment.

Our recently released report on PLAAF training suggests that narrative may be changing. Our analysis found that the PLAAF has initiated system-wide reform to train fighter pilots in the skills necessary to “fight and win” against potentially superior military competitors like the U.S. At the heart of this reform is an effort to train officers under what Chinese military leaders refer to as “actual combat conditions,” which include, among other things, nighttime battle training, complex electromagnetic conditions, special geographical environments and extreme weather conditions.

Cover: From Theory to PracticeRead Online From Theory to Practice People's Liberation Army Air Force Aviation Training at the Operational Unit

by Lyle J. Morris, Eric Heginbotham

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1415.html

PDF file

2.2 MB 

Technical Details » 

Research Questions 

How is the proficiency of PLAAF pilots affected by their training at operational aviation units in the context of the larger PLAAF training system? 

What does the open-source literature tell us about the duration, nature, and content of fighter pilot training? 

How does the PLAAF training compare with unit-level pilot training in the U.S. Air Force? 

What are the impediments to the institutionalization of training within the PLAAF? 

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has embarked on a major institutional reform to train and equip a modern, professional aviator corps. At the heart of this reform is an effort to train officers under what the People's Liberation Army refers to as "actual combat conditions" (实战条件). Such an emphasis reflects an acknowledgment by senior leaders that the PLAAF, and by extension the entire Chinese armed forces, is ill prepared to "fight and win" wars against potentially superior military competitors and must therefore reinvigorate training programs to meet the missions that the Chinese Air Force may be called on to execute.

This report seeks to assess PLAAF pilot proficiency by examining training held at operational aviation units in the context of the larger PLAAF training system. The first section analyzes the hierarchy of PLAAF training guidance. The second section examines the PLAAF training system for pilots prior to their arrival at their operational units, to include an examination of the theoretical and practical methods of instruction. The third section covers the transition to the PLAAF operational aviation unit and the content of unit training to include an analysis of the PLAAF annual training cycle. The fourth section addresses the development and training of instructor pilots at the unit level. The final section seeks to evaluate the operational competency and weaknesses within the PLAAF aviation training system.

Fighting the Islamic State on Social Media

by Elizabeth Bodine-Baron

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIL) has made headlines with its dramatic and effective exploitation of social media. The organization has drawn on a variety of social networking applications to promote its cause, including Facebook, Instagram, Tumbler, Ask.fm, and, most prominently, Twitter.

ISIL has used Twitter to disseminate slick yet violence-ridden propaganda videos, promote its religious ideology and state-building efforts, and make one-on-one connections with prospective recruits. Its social media prowess has quite possibly played a part in ISIL's enormous success in recruitment and in inspiring deadly attacks throughout the world. These successes have led to the perception that ISIL is "winning the war" on Twitter. However, the reality is a little more complicated.

While Twitter serves up ISIL propaganda and helps the group achieve its goals, it also gives the broader public a unique window into the social networks of extremist supporters and allows researchers to study the impact of extremist messaging. In addition to exposing ISIL supporters, Twitter provides an opportunity to assess the structure and messaging of ISIL opponents, since it is home not only to ISIL recruiters and advocates but also to many in the Middle East who do not support the Islamic State. ISIL supporters talk up themes of defending Islam, recruiting new fighters, promoting state-building efforts, and critiquing the West, while ISIL opponents fight back by accusing ISIL of subverting Islam, highlighting ISIL violence, and trumpeting its terrorist threat.

Countering ISIL in the real world also requires countering its messaging online.

Countering ISIL in the real world also requires countering its messaging online. However, it has been widely acknowledged that overt U.S. messaging against ISIL will likely fall flat. The United States is not trusted in the region and is poorly positioned to directly address theological or other factors that motivate young recruits.

Examining ISIS Support and Opposition Networks on Twitter

by Elizabeth Bodine-Baron, Todd C. Helmus, Madeline Magnuson, Zev Winkelman

Read Online

PDF file 6.8 MB Best for desktop computers.

ePub file 7.6 MB Best for mobile devices. 

mobi file 16.9 MB Best for Kindle 1-3. 

Research Questions

How can we differentiate ISIS supporters and opponents on Twitter?

Who are they, and what are they saying?

How are they connected, and who is important?

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), like no other terrorist organization before, has used Twitter and other social media channels to broadcast its message, inspire followers, and recruit new fighters. Though much less heralded, ISIS opponents have also taken to Twitter to castigate the ISIS message. This report draws on publicly available Twitter data to examine this ongoing debate about ISIS on Arabic Twitter and to better understand the networks of ISIS supporters and opponents on Twitter. To support the countermessaging effort and to more deeply understand ISIS supporters and opponents, this study uses a mixed-methods analytic approach to identify and characterize in detail both ISIS support and opposition networks on Twitter. This analytic approach draws on community detection algorithms that help detect interactive communities of Twitter users, lexical analysis that can identify key themes and content for large data sets, and social network analysis.

Key Findings

During the Study Period, ISIS Opponents Generally Outnumber Supporters Six to One

ISIS supporters, however, routinely outtweet opponents, producing 50 percent more tweets per day.

How Brexit Could Poison the British Political Agenda for Years

Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

November 3, 2016

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On Thursday, a British court threw a spanner into the works of the British government’s Brexit tactic, saying that Parliament must be consulted before exit negotiations start. This is contrary to the government’s view that it has the power to do so without consulting Parliament. This is however only one of six major battlefields Prime Minister Theresa May faces and may not even be the most difficult one.

Brexit confronts Prime Minister Theresa May with six front lines: The Tory Party, the Parliament, and the British public, Scotland and Northern Ireland, the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the European Union. A plan to merge adversarial interests into a mutually acceptable outcome must be concocted – a narrow path through the woods, if there is one.

According to media reports, cards are being kept close to the chest. Tactics, ambitions, and objectives are not being disclosed; the adversary might take advantage. Nothing could prove less suitable to square this circle. Theresa May is not negotiating with enemies, but with friends and partners who are disposed to help if given a chance to do so. But how can they without knowing where she sees the solution? Admittedly there are items where you do not reveal red lines such as budget contributions, but for the grand bargain openness is required.

Syria's Endgame Is Under Way. Is America Ready?

Nikolas K. Gvosdev

November 2, 2016

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Is the table being set for a grand, realpolitik-based cessation of the fighting in Syria? And does the recent political deal in Lebanon both provide a workable template for a solution?

The first question is whether stars are aligning for any sort of compromise between the key interests of the major outside powers with skin in the game in Syria. For Iran, the paramount interest is to safeguard the so-called Shia crescent, extending westward from Iraq into Syria and Lebanon, and to make sure that Tehran’s lines of communication with its allies are protected. For Turkey, it is to retain influence in the region, protect ethnic Turkmen enclaves and to prevent the emergence of a unified Kurdish entity out of the wreckage of two failed centralized Arab autocracies, which would undermine its control of the Kurdish regions of the Turkish Republic. For the Gulf Arab monarchies, it is containing Iranian influence and defending the interests of Arab Sunnis against a majoritarian Shia government in Iraq and a minority Alawite regime in Syria. Finally, Russia wants to protect its equities in Syria, reemphasize its return to the Middle East as an agenda-setting power, and demonstrate that it can protect its clients from violent overthrow indirectly sponsored and supported by the United States. If Bashar al-Assad is still sitting in Damascus the day after President Barack Obama leaves office, Moscow will have won a significant symbolic victory.

As long as each actor was committed to pursuing the maximalist versions of their agendas, conflict was inevitable. It is no longer automatic that “Assad must go,” or that he is on the verge of falling—but while extensive Russian and Iranian assistance can shore up Assad’s position, neither Moscow nor Tehran is willing to pay the price that would be necessary to restore all of Syria to Assad’s control.

Where Obamacare Is Really Headed: A 'Robust' Public Option

Robert E. Moffit

November 2, 2016

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An average 25 percent jump in health-insurance premiums sold on Obamacare exchanges has administration officials and their congressional allies scrambling to find some rapid remedy to control costs.

Emerging as the liberals’ leading policy prescription is a “robust public option”—an option roundly rejected during the 2010 debate. President Obama, presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell, Senate minority leader Harry Reid and thirty-two Democratic senators—the top political stars in America’s “progressive” constellation—all strongly endorse this proposal. They say it will enhance market competition and control costs. But . . . it’s got to be robust.

When progressives say they want to make the public option “robust,” what they really mean is they want to endow it with special advantages. To be blunt, they want to make sure that the “level playing field” between the public option and private plans is, well, tilted against private plans.

One way to do this, as congressional liberals proposed in 2009, is to base public-option payment rates for doctors, hospitals and other medical professionals at Medicare levels—well below the reimbursement rates that private health plans maintain in the provider contracts. Paying physicians less would enable the public option to offer lower premiums, undercutting the market share of private health plans.

Changes in Leadership of Taiwan’s Top Spy Agency

Russell Hsiao

November 3, 2016

Changing Guard at Taiwan’s National Security Bureau

On October 26, Lieutenant General Peng Sheng-chu (彭勝竹) formally assumedthe post of director-general of Taiwan’s lead intelligence agency the National Security Bureau (國安局 or NSB). The NSB is the country’s premier intelligence collection and analysis organization with the responsibility to “direct and coordinate the activities of the national intelligence community,”akin to the role of the Central Intelligence Agency. Peng ‘s appointment to replace Army Reserve Lieutenant General Yang Kuo-chiang (楊國強) as director of the agency marks the first time that the air force is at the head of the NSB, as well as the Ministry of National Defense (MND).

Peng is of the Hakka minority and previously served as the 18th commander of the Republic of China (ROC) Air Force from July 2007 to July 2009. The new NSB chief graduated from the ROC Air Force Academy in 1971, Taiwan’s National Defense University in 1984, and the US Air War College in 1993. In July 2002,Peng became chief of the president’s bodyguard detachment during the Chen Shui-bian administration, and was quickly promoted to principal of the ROC Air Force Academy in May 2003. He was then elevated to chief of staff of the ROC Air Force in December 2004 and served as the director-general of the Military Intelligence Bureau (MIB) from June 2005 to April 2006. After his time at MIB,Peng was promoted to deputy chief of the general staff of the ROC Armed Forces. Later, former KMT president Ma Ying-jeou selected Peng to serve as one of his 11 strategic advisers (戰略顧問) in 2009. Peng also served as air attaché at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States.

RC-135 Spy Planes Are Being Used Against ISIS in Iraq and Syria

Joseph Trevithick

November 3, 2016

The U.S. Air Force’s Biggest Spy Planes Are Hunting Islamic State Fighters

New photographs confirm the U.S. Air Force’s biggest spy planes are helping hunt Islamic State fighters. The missions come as Iraqi and Kurdish troops work to evict the terrorists from the city of Mosul.

On Oct. 21, 2016, at least one RC-135V/W Rivet Joint took off from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and headed for either Iraq or Syria. Derived from the Boeing 707 airliner, these four engine flying spooks can travel nearly 4,000 miles without needing to refuel.

“The aircraft provided reconnaissance to the 20-nation air coalition by collecting real-time on-scene … intelligence,” one official caption read.

The jets can supply “near real-time on-scene electronic warfare support, intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination capabilities,” another captionexplained.

As forces on the ground push back Islamic State, making sure the group’s fighters can’t escape unnoticed is particularly important.

The Rivet Joints have been a nearly constant fixture in the Middle East since the first Gulf War in 1991. For more than a decade afterwards, crews kept watch over Saddam Hussein’s troops while enforcing no fly zones over areas of Iraq.

After a U.S.-led coalition invaded Iraq in 2003, the RC-135s backed up American troops fighting Saddam loyalists and other insurgents. Even when the Pentagon withdrew the bulk of its forces in 2011, the aerial spies kept looking for militants in the country.

Russia holds large-scale nuclear war games

Bill Gertz

November 3, 2016

Russia holds large-scale nuclear war games

Analysts at the Pentagon’s Defense Intelligence Agency closely monitored a recent Russian nuclear forces exercise that was one of the largest strategic drills of its kind since the Soviet era.

The unannounced war games were called strategic operation of nuclear forces and took place between Oct. 10 and Oct. 12 throughout Russia. The exercises appear to be the latest round of nuclear saber-rattling against the United States by President Vladimir Putin.

One official said the exercises, involving numerous launches of nuclear missiles, were gauged to be at levels that reached or exceeded the kind of Soviet strategic force exercises held during the Cold War.

“This resembled the days of the Soviet Union in both numbers and breadth of exercises,” said one official familiar with reports of the maneuvers.

The first test launch during the exercises was the firing of an SS-N-18 submarine-launched ballistic missile from a Delta III-class submarine in the Sea of Okhotsk in the Russian Far East. That launch was followed by the firing of a SSN-23 missile from the Barents Sea. Both carried multiple dummy warheads.

Then, on Oct. 12, a SS-25 road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Plesetsk missile launch facility in northern Russia.

“This launch aimed to confirm the extended service life of operating intercontinental ballistic missiles of this type,” the Russian Defense Ministry said of the SS-25 launch in a statement reported by the official TASS news agency.

“The missile’s warhead hit the notional target with the required accuracy at the practice range on Kamchatka Peninsula,” the statement said.

Russophobia: War Party Propaganda – OpEd

BY MARGARET KIMBERLEY 

NOVEMBER 2, 2016

http://www.eurasiareview.com/02112016-russophobia-war-party-propaganda-oped/

Did Russia invade Iraq and kill one million people? Does Russia have a greater percentage of its population behind bars than any other country in the world? Did Russia occupy Haiti after kidnapping its president? Are Russian police allowed to shoot children to death without fear of repercussion? Is Russia entering its 20thyear of a terror war against the people of Somalia? All of these crimes take place in or at the direction of the United States. Yet the full force of propaganda and influence on world opinion is directed against Russia, which whatever its shortcomings cannot hold a candle to America in violating human rights.

The dangers presented by a Hillary Clinton presidency cannot be overstated. She and the war party have been steadily working towards a goal that defies logic and risks all life on earth. Regime changeis once again their modus operandi and they hope to make it a reality against Russia.

Nearly every claim of Russian evil doing is a lie, a ruse meant to put Americans in a fighting mood and lose their fear of nuclear conflagration. It isn’t clear if Clinton and the rest of the would-be warriors actually realize they are risking mushroom clouds. Perhaps they believe that Vladimir Putin will be easily pushed around when all evidence points to the contrary.

The unproven allegations of interference in the presidential election and casting blame on Russia as the sole cause of suffering in Syria are meant to desensitize the public. It is an age old ploy which makes war not just acceptable but deemed a necessity. The usual suspects are helping out eagerly. The corporate media, led by newspapers like the New York Times and Washington Post, are front and center in pushing tales of Russian villainy. Human Rights Watch and other organizations who care nothing about abuses committed by the United States and its allies are also playing their usual role of choosing the next regime change victim.

John Brennan's attempt to lead the CIA into the age of cyberwar

By David Rohde

2 November 2016

Source Link

WASHINGTON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - When America goes to the polls on Nov. 8, according to current and former U.S. intelligence officials, it will likely experience the culmination of a new form of information war.

A months-long campaign backed by the Russian government to undermine the credibility of the U.S. presidential election - through hacking, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns - is likely to peak on voting day, the officials said.

Russian officials deny any such effort. But current and former U.S. officials warn that hackers could post fictional evidence online of widespread voter fraud, slow the Internet to a crawl through cyber attacks and release a final tranche of hacked emails, including some that could be doctored.

"Don't underestimate what they can do or will do. We have to be prepared," said Leon Panetta, who served as CIA director and defense secretary in President Barack Obama's first term. "In some ways, they are succeeding at disrupting our process. Until they pay a price, they will keep doing it."

John Brennan, the current CIA director, declined to comment on the Russian efforts. But he said Russian intelligence operatives have a long history of marrying traditional espionage with advances in technology. More broadly, Brennan said, the digital age creates enormous opportunities for espionage. But it also creates vulnerabilities.

Citing an array of new cyber, conventional and terrorist threats, Brennan announced the most sweeping reforms of the CIA in its 69-year history 18 months ago.

Commentary: Don't be so sure Russia hacked the Clinton emails

By James Bamford

Source Link

Russian President Vladimir Putin (C), Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (L) and Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov watch events to mark Victory Day in Sevastopol May 9, 2014. 

Last summer, cyber investigators plowing through the thousands of leaked emails from the Democratic National Committee uncovered a clue. 

A user named “Феликс Эдмундович” modified one of the documents using settings in the Russian language. Translated, his name was Felix Edmundovich, a pseudonym referring to Felix Edmundovich Dzerzhinsky, the chief of the Soviet Union’s first secret-police organization, the Cheka. 

It was one more link in the chain of evidence pointing to Russian President Vladimir Putin as the man ultimately behind the operation. 

During the Cold War, when Soviet intelligence was headquartered in Dzerzhinsky Square in Moscow, Putin was a KGB officer assigned to the First Chief Directorate. Its responsibilities included “active measures,” a form of political warfare that included media manipulation, propaganda and disinformation. Soviet active measures, retired KGB Major General Oleg Kalugin told Army historian Thomas Boghart, aimed to discredit the United States and “conquer world public opinion.” 

Digitizing the CIA

November 3, 2016

John Brennan’s attempt to lead America’s spies into the age of cyberwar

WASHINGTON – When America goes to the polls on Nov. 8, according to current and former U.S. intelligence officials, it will likely experience the culmination of a new form of information war.

A months-long campaign backed by the Russian government to undermine the credibility of the U.S. presidential election – through hacking, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns – is likely to peak on voting day, the officials said.

Russian officials deny any such effort. But current and former U.S. officials warn that hackers could post fictional evidence online of widespread voter fraud, slow the Internet to a crawl through cyber attacks and release a final tranche of hacked emails, including some that could be doctored.

“Don’t underestimate what they can do or will do. We have to be prepared,” said Leon Panetta, who served as CIA director and defense secretary in President Barack Obama’s first term. “In some ways, they are succeeding at disrupting our process. Until they pay a price, they will keep doing it.”

John Brennan, the current CIA director, declined to comment on the Russian efforts. But he said Russian intelligence operatives have a long history of marrying traditional espionage with advances in technology. More broadly, Brennan said, the digital age creates enormous opportunities for espionage. But it also creates vulnerabilities. 

Citing an array of new cyber, conventional and terrorist threats, Brennan announced the most sweeping reforms of the CIA in its 69-year history 18 months ago.