Can AMLO Deliver on His Vision for Mexico’s Future?

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Two and a half years after taking office in December 2018, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO, has struggled to make good on his campaign promises to deliver radical transformation, including tackling corruption and reforming the country’s drug war. Meanwhile, he often found himself playing catchup to former U.S. President Donald Trump, whose quixotic threats linking trade and immigration forced AMLO’s hand when it came to Mexico’s efforts to block immigrants from crossing into the United States. Now AMLO will have to reboot relations with the U.S. under President Joe Biden, whose more conventional approach to a full range of bilateral issues could prove to be more of a challenge than Trump’s dual fixation on migration and trade.

Trump did not entirely upend AMLO’s agenda. The Mexican leader has taken steps to rethink Mexico’s drug war, while also calling for the decriminalization of all drugs in Mexico. But from cracking down on migrants passing through Mexico on their way north to successfully renegotiating the updated NAFTA trade deal, AMLO’s presidency in many ways became inextricably linked to Trump, with whom he developed surprisingly amicable ties despite their many differences. That friendliness, combined with a series of recent moves that undermined security cooperation with the U.S. on drug enforcement, has many observers wondering whether AMLO will pay a political cost under the Biden administration.

AMLO remains broadly popular in Mexico. His pledges to reduce inequality are hailed, even as uncertainty surrounds some of his economic policy proposals. Though he has made efforts to reassure the private sector, he has also called for greater state intervention in the economy, deviating from the open market trajectory of his predecessors. But his failure to deliver on promises of radical transformation have begun to erode the electoral coalition he rode to victory in 2018, particularly among younger Mexicans. More recently, AMLO has been criticized for his response to the COVID-19 pandemic—or rather his lack of response. But so far it has not put a significant dent in his approval ratings.