Benjamin Jensen
While most analysts are focused on Russian land operations in the Donbas region, the next phase of the war will likely be decided in western Ukraine along the network of roads, small airports, and rail lines connecting the nation to Europe. To survive, Ukraine needs massive shipments of ammunition and fuel, which Russia will increasingly attempt to interdict. If Ukraine can protect these lines of communication, Kyiv has a real chance to deny Russian military objectives and force a political settlement.
In military theory, interdiction represents actions to disrupt, delay, or destroy enemy military capabilities—to include precursors like logistics—before they can be brought to bear against friendly forces. While historically interdiction includes activities ranging from the maritime commerce raiding to aerial strafing of rail lines and other logistics nodes in Second World War, Korea, and Vietnam, modern interdiction often involves cruise missiles, cyber operations, and special forces.
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