A scenario European leaders would do well to consider, as Kyiv enters the Washington-sponsored peace process with profound frustration: with the White House determined to put an end to the war in Ukraine, the Europeans are telling Zelensky that no peace is necessary. The war can continue indefinitely, they say; and, if the Americans want out, Europe can still step in to fill the void.
But Zelensky is foolish to believe that the Europeans will save him from the forces of reality. Europe, the last bulwark of the once-insurmountable pro-war consensus, is a continent of hawks without beaks. Ukraine cannot defeat Russia with just European support. Ukraine will collapse.
Look at what will happen then. Ukraine’s predicament seems increasingly reminiscent of that of the Second Spanish Republic after its defeat at the battle of the Ebro in late 1938 destroyed any remaining hope of turning the tide.
Ukraine’s Ebro was its disastrous counteroffensive in 2023. Since then, Kyiv’s position has become more and more untenable. As the public loses the will to fight and political infighting in Kyiv becomes too loud to ignore, conditions seem increasingly ripe for a collapse of order and a grave internal crisis.
In March 1939, convinced that the war was lost and that prolonging it was causing a needless, useless loss of life, Spanish Republican officer Segismundo Casado deposed the pro-war government of Juan Negrín, leading to a collapse of the Republic and to the complete, unconditional victory of General Franco. Such fears appear more pertinent still if one considers that Zelensky is now a deeply unpopular leader, with polls suggesting he would lose a new election against former general Valeriy Zaluzhniy by as much as 25 per cent to 75 per cent of the vote.
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