Masoud Kazemzadeh
May 19, 2025, was the first anniversary of the death of Ebrahim Raisi. His death would not have mattered greatly if Raisi were merely the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). This article argues that the death of Ebrahim Raisi, widely believed to be Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s designated successor, has upended Iran’s succession trajectory, which will increase the elite factionalism and internal conflict in the aftermath of Ayatollah Khamenei’s death.
According to a 2023 report by Aman, the Military Intelligence of the Israel Defense Forces, the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, was preparing the path for Raisi to succeed him in this position. It adds that other Western intelligence agencies also shared that assessment. The report further states that Khamenei not only orchestrated the 2021 presidential election to pave the path for Raisi to become president but also dismissed IRGC Gen. Ali Shamkhani (who was killed by Israel on June 13, 2025) from his position as the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council in order to increase President Raisi’s power.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was born in 1939 and is 86 years old. The fundamentalist constitution grants extensive executive, legislative, and judicial powers to the Supreme Leader. According to the fundamentalist constitution, the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 fundamentalist Shia clerics, chooses the Supreme Leader.
Khamenei had invested at least 10 years in preparing the path for Raisi to assume that position. This includes not only appointing Raisi as the Head of the Judicial Branch but also manipulating the 2021 elections for the presidency and the 2024 elections for the Assembly of Experts. Raisi was the sole candidate allowed to run for the seat from his district for the Assembly of Experts. Raisi’s father-in-law, Ayatollah Ahmad Alamolhoda, is a powerful hardline member of the fundamentalist oligarchy and a powerful member of the Assembly of Experts. Finding another suitable candidate for Supreme Leader will not be easy. Raisi checked all the boxes.
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