The Regional Order Iran Wanted Is Taking Shape Without It

Foreign Policy | Saeid Jafari

On August 11, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Gulf partners established the Mecca pact, solidifying a coalition among major Muslim states that explicitly excludes Iran. Although Tehran has long advocated for regional security cooperation among Islamic nations to displace Western military influence, this newly emerging alliance around the Strait of Hormuz effectively isolates the Iranian regime.

The multilateral security alignment integrates Turkish military capabilities, Pakistani defense cooperation, and Gulf financial resources to secure vital maritime chokepoints and project regional force. By anchoring the strategic defense arrangement in Saudi Arabia rather than including Tehran, participating member states are constructing an autonomous security architecture that effectively counterbalances Iranian capabilities without relying solely on traditional Western security guarantees. This historic geopolitical realignment leaves Iran strategically encircled by the very pan-Islamic security structure it originally sought to champion, fundamentally altering the Middle Eastern balance of power across the region.

Comment

The consolidation of Sunni military power without Iranian participation echoes the structural dynamics of the 1955 Baghdad Pact, where northern tier states aligned with Gulf monarchies to anchor regional containment. Integrating Pakistani manpower and Turkish aerospace technology into Gulf defense planning operationalises an indigenous security architecture independent of NATO command channels. This triad shifts the maritime security burden in the Strait of Hormuz from external expeditionary fleets to a permanent regional coalition.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which factor will prove more decisive in sustaining the Mecca pact over time — the integration of Turkish aerospace platforms and Pakistani military personnel, or the operational friction between member states in managing shared maritime security across the Strait of Hormuz?

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