The Middle East is in crisis, and Israel is at the center of the storm. Since Hamas’s surprise attack on October 7, 2023, that killed around 1,200 Israelis, the Israeli military has assailed and occupied much of the Gaza Strip, ramped up operations in the West Bank, struck Houthi targets in Yemen, devastated Hezbollah in Lebanon, hit nuclear and military sites in Iran, and bombed parts of Syria. All these adversaries have links to terrorism: in the decades before October 7, Hamas and Hezbollah used terrorism against Israel, killing over 1,000 civilians as well as many soldiers.
In these circumstances, Israel appears to be courting a new wave of terrorist attacks, maybe even a wider uprising. The war in Gaza has caused tremendous civilian suffering. At the same time, Israel is squeezing the West Bank with raids on suspected terrorist hideouts. Those operations have caused approximately 1,000 deaths and displaced tens of thousands more Palestinians. Along with the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and numerous Jewish settler depredations there, Palestinians and Arab citizens of Israel have many reasons to be outraged at Israel.
Despite that anger and despite Israel’s long slate of adversaries, the number of terrorist attacks within Israel since October 7 has been surprisingly low. Israel has not seen high-casualty terrorist attacks or even a sustained series of low-level incidents. A third intifada, in which Palestinians would rise up against the Israeli occupation as they did between 1987 and 1993 and between 2000 and 2005, remains a distant prospect.
That is in large part attributable to the success of Israel’s campaigns against its enemies, the disarray of its foes, its vice-like grip on the Palestinian territories, and its stiffened internal defenses. And yet that success comes with deep costs. In addition to killing many civilians, Israel’s aggressive approach threatens to foreclose potential political resolutions to the many conflicts it is embroiled in. By trying to stave off its adversaries and protect itself from terrorist attacks, Israel will in fact be entering a state of permanent war.
No comments:
Post a Comment