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16 January 2026

Shock and Awe in Caracas: What Comes Next?

Paul J. Saunders, and Vanessa Neumann

The stunning US raid that removed Nicolás Maduro from power has upended Venezuela’s political landscape and forced Washington to confront what comes next. Rather than immediately pushing for regime change, the Donald Trump administration appears to be testing a pressure-and-incentives strategy, using sanctions relief, oil production, and economic access as leverage to shape the behavior of the remaining leadership.

Can this approach actually deliver meaningful political reform in Caracas, or will regional stability and US energy interests take precedence over Venezuela’s democratic transition? How do Venezuelans and the people of the region think about the end of Nicolas Maduro’s time in power? And what does the dramatic change in Caracas’ leadership mean for Cuba?

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