Carl Bildt
On January 3rd 2026, Donald Trump conducted a militarily successful but politically fraught intervention in Venezuela. For Europeans, three conclusions stand out. None are sensational, but all are important.
1. Keep an eye on the western hemisphere
First, the US National Security Strategy’s prioritising of the western hemisphere really applies. This change is profound—it will shape many American policies during the second Trump administration.
At the turn of the 21st century, the security of Europe and the strength of the transatlantic relationship led US security concerns, with the former Soviet Union and later Russia its core focus. A decade ago, however, America started to pivot to Asia as a consequence of the spectacular rise of China, although it still retained attention on Europe. Now, suddenly, the western hemisphere is a distinct priority and Europe is sinking fast on the list of concerns.
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