6 February 2026

Beyond Deterrence: How China Turned Taiwan Into a Governance Testbed

Erika Lafrennie

Taiwan dominates American strategic thinking as the ultimate deterrence problem. Pentagon war games model invasion scenarios. Think tanks debate force ratios. Analysts calculate escalation ladders. The conversation assumes deterrence is being tested.

That assumption is wrong—not because deterrence is failing, but because it was never the organizing logic shaping outcomes in Taiwan. Taiwan is not where deterrence is being tested. Taiwan is where governance competition is being made visible. This is not a war plan or a Taiwan policy piece. It is a close examination of how modern power actually operates. The conflict most analysts fear is already happening.

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