Paul J. Saunders, and Nikolas K. Gvosdev
Over two months into the US-Israeli war with Iran, the conflict shows no signs of imminent resolution, with both sides convinced that time is on their side. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up the prices of oil and natural gas, but neither Washington nor Tehran appears ready to back down or make concessions, raising the possibility of a prolonged stalemate of “no war, no peace.” At the same time, the war’s immediate effects on the energy markets and US military posture will have repercussions for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s plans for Taiwan, as well as President Donald Trump’s summit in Beijing later this month.
How long can each side endure this state of affairs, and what would it take to force a settlement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz? How does the war intersect with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine? And what lessons is China drawing as it watches another great power struggle to bring a middle power to heel?
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