20 May 2026

The Myth of the Thucydides Trap Is Convenient for China

The Free Press |  Aaron MacLean
Chinese President Xi Jinping strategically invoked the "Thucydides Trap" during a summit in Beijing, warning the U.S. and China to beware of the concept, which posits that war is often inevitable when a rising power challenges an established hegemon. Graham Allison, who popularized the theory, suggests that avoiding conflict requires "radical changes in attitudes and actions" from the established power, implying U.S. accommodation of China's rise. The article argues that Xi's deployment of this theory serves as an unsubtle warning and a tool of information warfare, shifting blame for potential conflict, such as over Taiwan, onto the United States. It criticizes Allison's theory as misleading, highlighting that while confrontation risks war, the risks of accommodation—especially with a totalitarian China pursuing territorial expansion and global dominance—could lead to a form of "slavery," underscoring the complex and dangerous geopolitical moment.

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