20 May 2026

Thucydides Trap, Supply Chains and the Dawn of a Multipolar World

Niti Shastra  |  Navroop Singh, Himja Parekh
President Donald Trump's state visit to China, despite outward diplomacy, exposed profound geopolitical fractures, with President Xi Jinping invoking the Thucydides’ Trap and explicitly warning against US interference in Taiwan, deeming it an "ultimate red line." Concurrently, the BRICS summit in India saw Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov condemn America's "predatory energy politics" and sanctions targeting Russian oil, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi urged condemnation of US and Israeli aggression against Iran, highlighting a multipolar pushback against declining Western hegemony. India, facing the expiration of a critical US waiver for Russian oil imports on May 16, 2026, must now source costlier alternatives, impacting its economy and testing its strategic autonomy. This comes as Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured vital energy and defense deals with the UAE, including strategic petroleum reserves and a $5 billion investment, aiming to bolster India's resilience amid a global supply chain crisis exacerbated by the escalating Persian Gulf conflict.

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