The United States needs the trust of its allies and partners, not its adversaries, to effectively manage international conflicts like the one with Iran. While negotiations with adversaries require verification and clear costs/benefits, trust with friends is a massive amplifier, fostering common purpose, information sharing, and willingness to impose consequences.
This supercharges adversaries' compliance incentives. Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused significant economic impacts, with fertilizer prices up 40 percent, oil prices up 50 percent, and Asian liquified natural gas prices up 70 percent. These U.S. policy consequences, felt sharply in the Persian Gulf, Europe, and Asia, risk eroding trust and pushing partners towards hedging strategies with Iran and deepening ties with China. The Trump administration's focus on indirect U.S.-Iran negotiations, without sufficient consultation with allies, risks fragmenting the coalition necessary for decisive pressure. Reversing this erosion of trust with Gulf partners, Europe, and Asia is a strategic necessity for U.S. success.
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