U.S.-India relations stumbled badly during the second half of 2025, marked by a breach of trust over the May 10, 2025, India-Pakistan ceasefire and President Donald Trump’s imposition of 50 percent tariffs on Indian exports in August 2025. The February 6, 2026, interim trade deal provides an opportunity to repair ties, crucial for India's role in shaping the Indo-Pacific and competing against China.
Despite friction, cooperation continued in defense, with the October 2025 renewal of the 10-year defense framework and India's confirmed purchase of six additional Boeing P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft after the trade deal. Critical minerals are a ripe area, with India's $4 billion National Critical Mineral Mission aligning with U.S. efforts to diversify supply chains and offer an alternative to China. However, reestablishing Indian trust is challenging due to U.S. overtures to Pakistan and differing views on terrorism emanating from Pakistan, including the April 22, 2025, attack in Indian Kashmir. Recommendations include strengthening civil nuclear cooperation, institutionalizing India's Quad maritime security role, leveraging its strategic ports, operationalizing pharmaceutical and biotechnology resiliency, advancing AI/semiconductor infrastructure, refraining from Kashmir mediation, and reinvigorating counterterrorism dialogue.
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