Ukraine's escalating campaign inside Russia, involving deep drone strikes on oil infrastructure, attacks on military airfields, logistics interdiction, and the assassination of senior Russian military figures like Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, aims to impose significant costs. While these actions, including targeting Moscow-area and St. Petersburg refineries, create command disruption and economic pressure, the author argues they are unlikely to force President Putin to negotiate peace.
Putin's autocratic authority is intrinsically linked to perceptions of strength and defiance against the West, making capitulation politically untenable. Russia's deep officer corps can absorb losses from assassinations, preventing strategic paralysis. However, the deep strike campaign against critical energy infrastructure, vital for domestic use, military operations, and export revenue, represents a more impactful effort to raise the overall cost of the war for Russia.
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