25 Years After 9/11. The Next Global Shock Could be Infinitely Worse

RUSI  |  Tim Willasey-Wilsey

Nuclear weapons use by increasingly populist world leaders represents the greatest threat of a catastrophic global shock, far eclipsing the impacts of 9/11, Covid-19, or historical terrorism. Recent military escalations, such as the 10 May 2025 Indian cruise missile strikes against Pakistani bases, highlight how compressed decision-making windows of under thirty seconds increase the risk of accidental nuclear escalation.

This operational volatility is compounded by a widespread public apathy and a decline in global governance standards compared to the Cold War era. While artificial intelligence could assist in monitoring conventional threats like domestic drone attacks on critical infrastructure, its integration into nuclear command structures threatens to automate launch decisions when human consultation is impossible. Ultimately, a limited nuclear exchange involving 150 warheads would trigger global environmental devastation and mass starvation, underscoring a critical failure of human imagination that demands urgent counter-drone and missile defence prioritisation.

Comment

The author's reference to the May 2025 cruise missile incident underscores the perilous nature of sub-minute decision-making windows in the subcontinent, where geographic proximity leaves virtually no room for error. For New Delhi, the growing integration of artificial intelligence in command-and-control systems highlights a critical doctrinal challenge: balancing rapid response capabilities with robust fail-safe mechanisms to prevent accidental escalation. Furthermore, the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to low-cost drone strikes demands that India rapidly accelerate its domestic air defence and counter-unmanned aerial systems integration across both military and civilian sectors.

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