How the Coup Turned Myanmar Into Asia’s Deadliest Conflict—and Why the World Is Looking Away

Council on Foreign Relations  |  Joshua Kurlantzick

Myanmar has collapsed into Asia’s deadliest conflict following a 2021 military coup, resulting in over 100,000 deaths and a severe humanitarian crisis. The ruling junta has intensified its campaign, executing thousands of devastating airstrikes against civilian targets like schools and hospitals to suppress widespread resistance across the country.

This rapid descent into state failure reversed a decade of democratic reforms and economic growth where poverty rates had halved. To sustain its offensive, the military regime relies on advanced weaponry and fuel supplied by authoritarian allies, including Russia, Belarus, and Iran, alongside three billion dollars in assistance from Beijing. Meanwhile, the international community has largely disengaged; the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ diplomatic efforts have failed, and Washington has reduced humanitarian aid while terminating temporary protected status for refugees. As regional neighbors like India and Thailand actively deport fleeing citizens, the junta is successfully lobbying to rebuild ties with the United States, consolidating its autocratic rule.

Comment

For New Delhi, the protracted instability in Myanmar presents a severe dual-front challenge that directly threatens India's internal security and regional posture. The influx of refugees into the sensitive northeastern states, coupled with aggressive deportation policies, risks exacerbating local ethnic tensions and destabilising the borderlands. Furthermore, the junta's growing reliance on Beijing's financial and strategic patronage severely undermines India's 'Act East' policy and expands China's strategic footprint right on our eastern flank. A passive international stance only forces the Tatmadaw deeper into China's orbit, necessitating a more proactive and calibrated Indian diplomatic response.

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