Chinese dam near India border a ticking geological bomb, finds Beijing-backed study

India Today  |  Shounak Sanyal

China's state-run geological survey has warned that the under-construction $137-billion Medog Hydropower Station on the Yarlung Tsangpo sits directly atop the active Paizhen Fault, posing severe structural risks just 50 km from the Indian border. This 60,000-megawatt project faces significant tectonic threats in one of the Himalayas' most earthquake-prone regions.

Geologists from Chengdu University of Technology and other state institutions discovered that ancient lake sediments and a magnitude 6.9 earthquake in 2017 confirm the fault's ongoing seismic activity. The resulting fractured rock foundations and unstable surrounding terrain could easily trigger massive landslides and slope collapses once the reservoir is filled, threatening downstream safety. While water experts downplay Beijing's ability to completely restrict downstream flows into India and Bangladesh, the catastrophic potential of a structural failure at the world's largest dam presents an unprecedented transboundary security hazard.

Comment

While the debate over China's ability to weaponise water flow by "turning off the tap" is often dismissed by hydrologists, this study highlights a far more insidious ecological threat to India's northeast. The construction of such a colossal structure in a highly active seismic zone creates a permanent risk of reservoir-induced seismicity and catastrophic dam failure, which would unleash unprecedented flash floods into Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. New Delhi must incorporate these transboundary disaster scenarios into its regional defence and civil protection planning, while demanding institutionalised, real-time hydrological and geological data-sharing mechanisms from Beijing.

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