How the Iran war will change the Middle East

Brookings Institution | Philip H. Gordon

The 2026 war in Iran, initiated by United States and Israeli military strikes aimed at regime change, has severely disrupted Middle Eastern security by triggering devastating Iranian retaliatory attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This conflict exposed the vulnerability of Gulf Cooperation Council states, which suffered extensive damage despite holding American security guarantees, and has driven these partners to aggressively pursue strategic autonomy.

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, Arab Gulf nations had actively sought diplomatic de-escalation with Tehran, including a 2023 Chinese-brokered normalization agreement, to protect their massive domestic economic investments. The war's asymmetric impacts—exemplified by the United Arab Emirates enduring over 3,000 missile strikes, which were subsequently reported as secret counterattacks, and exiting OPEC—have exacerbated deep-seated rivalries between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. While Saudi Arabia and Oman capitalized on elevated oil prices to increase revenues by $9 billion and $6 billion respectively, Israel faces growing diplomatic isolation.

Comment

A conflict in the Persian Gulf that closes the Strait of Hormuz and targets GCC infrastructure directly threatens India's critical energy security and the safety of its massive expatriate workforce in the region. Furthermore, the erosion of US security guarantees and the subsequent diversification of Gulf defence procurement towards non-US partners present both a challenge and an opportunity for India's own strategic partnerships in the Middle East. The analysis, however, overlooks how a weakened Iran and a fragmented GCC might accelerate China's diplomatic and economic penetration into the region, directly impacting India's maritime security architecture in the western Indian Ocean.

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