Israel and the cost paradox of the Iran war

Al Jazeera | Abdulla Banndar Al-Etaibi

Israel is experiencing unprecedented economic growth and defense export records while successfully shifting the military and financial burdens of its conflict with Iran onto regional neighbors and the United States. While Iranian missile and drone strikes target Gulf infrastructure and disrupt shipping lanes, the Israeli home front remains largely insulated from direct retaliation.

This asymmetry exposes a critical vulnerability in Tehran's decades-old forward defence doctrine, which relied on proxy networks like Hezbollah and Iraqi factions to deter adversaries away from Iranian territory. U.S. military strikes and diplomatic pressure have severely degraded these proxy forces, forcing Iran to bear the strategic costs of the war in isolation. Meanwhile, Israel's economy is projected to grow by 4 percent in 2026, while its defense exports reached a record $19.2 billion in 2025. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits Washington to preserve this favorable regional imbalance, the long-term stability of this asymmetric security architecture remains highly uncertain.

Comment

The systematic degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon exposes the structural fragility of Iran’s forward defence doctrine. By relying on the Axis of Resistance to absorb Israeli strikes, Tehran has created a single point of failure when these Levant and Yemeni partners are simultaneously targeted. Without the buffer of Hezbollah's rocket arsenal to deter a direct assault, the Iranian homeland faces unprecedented exposure to hostile air campaigns.

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