The EU and Türkiye: Can shared threats overcome mutual suspicion?

Centre for European Reform | Thomas Maddock

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with European Union High Representative Kaja Kallas on June 30th 2026 to revive bilateral security and economic cooperation, aiming to overcome a prolonged diplomatic stalemate driven by mutual suspicion. This diplomatic re-engagement seeks to leverage Ankara's military capabilities against shared geopolitical threats despite stalled accession talks.

Decades of democratic backsliding under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, unresolved territorial disputes in Cyprus, and divergent foreign policy approaches toward Russia have effectively frozen Turkey's formal accession bid since 2018. However, Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and growing Chinese industrial competition are forcing both sides to reconsider their estrangement. Ankara's substantial drone manufacturing capacity and position as NATO's second-largest standing army offer critical defense supply chain solutions for Europe. To capitalize on these mutual dependencies, the partners are exploring a modernized customs union, critical mineral partnerships, and enhanced digital trade frameworks to manage their geopolitical differences.

Comment

Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 fighter jets programme following its acquisition of Russian S-400 air-defence systems illustrates the deep structural friction between Ankara's autonomous procurement and Western alliance integration. Yet, the European Union's urgent rearmament needs expose a critical reliance on external industrial bases capable of scaling uncrewed systems. Integrating Turkish aerospace firms into European supply chains offers a pragmatic mechanism to bypass Brussels' institutional deadlocks. This industrial interdependence creates a parallel track where tactical manufacturing offsets the strategic paralysis of stalled accession.

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