Russia's military, despite visible struggles in the fifth year of the Ukraine war, is projected to reconstitute its combat power faster than anticipated, posing an enduring primary threat to European security and NATO within five to seven years. Even if defeated in Ukraine, Moscow will field a larger force with enhanced drone, deep-strike, and personnel capabilities, maintaining high defense spending and industrial production.
The force has already grown from 850,000 to 1.3 million active personnel, despite 400,000-500,000 killed and 600,000-800,000 wounded. Russia is producing over 200 T-90M tanks annually, millions of tactical drones, and has contracted for 100,000 large one-way attack drones for 2026. This adaptation includes improved dynamic targeting, precision strikes, and recon-fire/recon-strike integration. NATO must prepare for Russia's capacity to conduct large-scale offensive maneuvers, not just positional fighting, and avoid complacency regarding Moscow's evolving military capabilities.
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