The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement has allowed ships to resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but remains fragile, dependent on U.S. domestic politics and Israel's adherence to a regional truce. Israel, not party to the talks, expresses deep displeasure with the 14-point plan binding it to a ceasefire.
Iran is actively asserting de facto control over the Strait, establishing a Persian Gulf Strait Authority and a joint working group with Oman, intending to charge transit fees, challenging freedom of navigation. The deal lifts the U.S. naval blockade and waives sanctions on Tehran's oil exports, potentially boosting Iran's output to 1.6–2.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), a "Venezuela" oil trajectory. This follows an export hiatus that eroded global oil inventories by over 340 million barrels and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve by over 60 million barrels. The ceasefire also eased fertilizer market disruption fears, with shipments resuming and prices falling to February levels; however, prior agricultural impacts are irreversible.
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