Trump 2.0 and the unraveling global order

Asia Times  |  Georgia Pollard, Earl A Carr Jr

On July 24, 2026, the United States imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, affecting approximately 99% of imports. This second trade shock followed a Supreme Court ruling invalidating an earlier emergency 10% global tariff, accelerating international erosion of confidence in American economic dependability.

A Pew Research Center report published July 15, 2026, surveying over 42,000 adults across 36 nations, demonstrated that global public opinion now favors China and President Xi Jinping over Washington and Donald Trump. American influence is rapidly receding. In Asia, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung refused an August 16 request to support US actions against Iran, leading Washington to reduce participation in the Ulchi Freedom Shield joint military exercises scheduled for August 17–27. These cascading frictions illustrate an accelerating global shift toward diplomatic hedging and strategic autonomy.

Comment

The unilateral reduction of participation in Ulchi Freedom Shield demonstrates how transactional conditionality directly erodes bilateral treaty structures. Coupling out-of-area operational demands in the Middle East to core defense commitments on the Korean Peninsula degrades institutional trust within the US-ROK Alliance. This decoupling forces Seoul to accelerate its independent defense acquisition plans under the Defense Reform 2.0 framework.

Downstream, this friction incentivises South Korean defense planners to expand indigenous strike capabilities, such as the Hyunmoo-5 ballistic missile program, to mitigate alliance volatility. Consequently, combined command integration under the Future Combined Forces Command faces persistent operational delays as partner priorities diverge.

Strategic Question for Discussion

Which carries greater weight in altering Seoul's long-term deterrence planning — the operational scaling back of Ulchi Freedom Shield or the accelerated indigenous development of the Hyunmoo-5 missile?

The trajectory indicates that indigenous capability building, represented by the Hyunmoo-5 missile, will ultimately prove more decisive than temporary adjustments to Ulchi Freedom Shield. While exercise reductions represent immediate political volatility, South Korea's pursuit of sovereign counterforce options creates a structural capability shift that reduces long-term operational dependency on American extended deterrence.

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