Nuclear Expert Outlines India’s ‘Command and Control’ Policy

BY LARRY LUXNER

JUNE 25, 2015

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Retired Brigadier Arun Sahgal, one of India’s top experts on nuclear policy, reasserted his country’s “no first use” doctrine in a June 23 presentation to the Atlantic Council. 

Sahgal, Director of the New Delhi-based Forum for Strategic Initiative, doesn’t represent official thinking, but he spoke from thirty-six years of experience in the Indian Army. 

“India’s no first use posture is written in cement,” he said. “The bottom line is, India shall not attack first, but shall respond if attacked—and retaliation will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage.” 

Sahgal reasserted India’s position of credible minimum deterrence, which isn’t “country-centric” but “threat-centric.” He noted that “CMD is a function of assured and credible retaliatory capability. We are also taking into account the nuclear threat from China.” 

Cold War Resurgent: US Nukes Could Soon Return to Europe

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It's been more than three decades since the vast peace protests took over Bonn's Hofgarten meadow in the early 1980s. Back then, about half a million protesters pushed their way into the city center, a kilometer-long mass of people moving through the streets. It was the biggest rally in the history of the German Federal Republic.

Today, the situation isn't quite that fraught, but it seems feasible that a similar scene may soon play out in front of the Chancellery in Berlin. For some time now, the Americans have once again been thinking about upgrading Europe's nuclear arsenal, and in the past week, a rhetorical arms race has begun that is reminiscent of the coldest periods of the Cold War.

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned of an "accelerating spiral of escalating words and then of actions." He described them as "the old reflexes of the Cold War."

Berlin is concerned that Europe could once again become the setting of a new East-West confrontation -- and that Germany might once again become a deployment zone. A source in the Defense Ministry suggested that "more (military) equipment may once again be stockpiled in Germany." Washington plans to station tanks, weapons and heavy equipment for 5,000 soldiers in Germany and the eastern NATO countries. US President Barack Obama hopes that doing so will soothe the fears of the Baltic States and countries in Eastern Europe, which, since the Ukraine crisis, are once again fearful of Russian aggression. He also hopes to quiet his critics in US Congress.

U.S. SHOULD TALK TO NORTH KOREA’S KIM JONG-UN

David Maxwell

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June 27, 2015 

Hmm…. Doug Bandow thinks it is possible to plot a coup in north Korea but there is little sign of resistance, only increasing repression.

Excerpt:

Minister Hyon Yong-chol probably has been purged, though his picture atypically appeared in older television programming after his alleged demise. Perhaps the best evidence that Hyon is dead is the DPRK’s failure to produce him to embarrass the Republic of Korea. However, South Korea’s intelligence agency acknowledged that it could not confirm his particularly gruesome form of execution.

If Hyon was executed quickly and unexpectedly, it probably wasn’t for dozing off, even in front of the new strongman. More likely the military man was plotting, or at least feared to be plotting, against the North’s leadership. Certainly that is a better explanation for his expeditious dispatch, especially by an anti-aircraft gun.

How American Armed Forces Became NATO’s Foreign Legion – Analysis

By John R. Haines*

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Speaking to students in St. Petersburg last January, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed the Ukrainian army “is not an army, but a foreign legion, in this case a foreign NATO legion.”[1] For going on three decades now, Russia and her apologists have used that term—NATO’s foreign legion—mostly to deride former Soviet-era allies who joined the western alliance.[2] The intended epithet aside, however, the notion of a NATO “foreign legion” has a less one-sided provenance than one might think: in October 1960, for example, President Eisenhower (shortly before a NATO Council meeting) floated the idea of a strategic force under exclusive alliance control, and subject to a code of discipline and conduct like that of the French Foreign Legion.[3]

Terrorism Is Booming Almost Everywhere But in the United States

BY MICAH ZENKO

JUNE 19, 2015

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With global deaths from terrorism up more than 4,000 percent in a dozen years, can we really call America’s counterterrorism a "success”? 

 

On June 19, the U.S. State Department published its Country Reports on Terrorism: 2014 — the department’s annual, congressionally mandated analytical and statistical review of global terrorism. Since the concept of terrorism is open to subjective interpretation and politically motivated misrepresentation, it is important to note that, since 1983, the U.S. government has used the same definition for statistical analytical purposes, which is based in Title 22 of the U.S. Code, Section 2656f(d):

(2) the term “terrorism” means premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents…

Should the US Spend 1 Trillion on Nuclear Weapons?

By Franz-Stefan Gady

June 27, 2015

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Given the rapid modernization of Chinese and Russian nuclear stockpiles, some argue the US might want to. 

The United States will have to spend $18 billion a year for 15 years starting in 2021 to keep its nuclear weapons operational, Kris Osborne over atmilitary.com reports.

His assessment is based on the testimony of U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Bob Work in front of the House Armed Services Committee yesterday. The subject of the hearing was nuclear deterrence.

“We’ve developed a plan to transition our aging system. Carrying out this plan will be an expensive proposition. It is projected to cost DoD an average of $18 billion a year from 2021 through 2035,” Work noted.

The Pentagon is in the middle of initiating the modernization of its nuclear triad (land-based missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and long-range bombers).

Wargame Shows Cyber Threat to Iran Deal

By Barbara Opall

June 22, 2015 

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TEL AVIV — An international war game played out here on Monday showed how a single cyber attack aimed at discrediting Iran could ultimately derail an impending nuclear deal between the world powers and Tehran.

Conducted at Tel Aviv University against the real-life backdrop of the June 30 deadline set by the P5+1 negotiators, the game's scenario devised by Tel Aviv-based Simulations Laboratory & Strategic War-Games (SIMLAB) started with the online publication of sensitive documents leaked from the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.

The leaker, a former contractor with a US intelligence agency, went public upon discovering that several of the documents contained evidence of a new Iranian centrifuge facility that Tehran had attempted to hide from P5+1 negotiators. Another document presented a demand by Iran's spiritual leader to accelerate activity at the site in order to attain a nuclear weapon in six months, while yet another document detailed a significant Russian military deployment in eastern Ukraine.

The Escalating Cyber War Between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the Growing Hostility of these Two Countries

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June 26, 2015

Author’s Note: Click on the headline below to see the excellent graphics accompanying this report.

Cyber warfare is an increasingly prominent aspect of the Iranian-Saudi hegemonic rivalry in the Middle East. Cyber attacks offer new revenge (e.g., 2012 attack on Saudi Aramco) and propaganda opportunities in this long running “cold war” type conflict.

Following Saudi airstrikes in Yemen during late March, the Iran-Saudi cyber conflict escalated. OSINT reveals a rapid exchange of website defacements and social media account hijackings between Saudi and Iranian hackers during mid-April. This period began when pro-Saudi hackers, unusually the aggressors,attacked Fars News Agency’s website on March 31. This incident appears to have spurred pro-Iranian hackers into action as detailed below.

The Yemen Cyber Army (YCA) emerged in mid-April. Unknown prior to its attack on Saudi newspaper Al-Hayat, the group has since been linked to a data breach at the Saudi Foreign Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The timing of YCA attacks, its communications footprint (Fars News “exclusives” and NewsQuickLeak.ir), and the tagline “Cutting Sword of Justice” used in the Saudi Aramco attack suggest, at a minimum, coordination with Iranian actors.

US Missile Defense Systems Must Adapt to Emerging High-Tech Threats

BY LARRY LUXNER

JUNE 25, 2015

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Growing technological sophistication by countries and terrorist groups hostile to the United States are forcing the Pentagon to change long-held views about missile defense, said Gen. James E. Cartwright, Former Vice Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. 

“The landscape has changed from pure ballistic activity to one that is far more difficult and far more precise. Therefore, the threat has increased,” Cartwright warned June 25 in a speech kicking off the Atlantic Council’s conference, “The United States and Global Missile Defense 2015.” 

Cartwright, who retired from the US Marine Corps in 2011 after a forty-year career, now holds the Harold Brown Chair in Defense Policy Studies at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. 

This 61-Year-Old Tank Still Fights Everywhere

S.K. AU-YEONG

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Like the AK-47 but for tanks, T-54 and T-55s endure on battlefields around the world. Simple to operate and maintain, these decades-old Soviet armored beasts are still popular in small nations and with non-state irregular forces — a true “people’s tank.”

If a coup or fratricidal civil war breaks out in one of Moscow’s current or former beneficiaries, there’s good chances T-54 or T-55s are taking part.

When Afghanistan collapsed in the 1990s, the Taliban and Northern Alliance coalition both inherited T-55s formerly belonging to the communist government. The tanks served in Yugoslavia’s multi-sided civil war during the same decade.

Today, captured Iraqi and Syrian T-55s serve under the black flag of Islamic State and other rebel groups fighting in the region. For these insurgent armies, the 60-year old tanks are just as useful as far more modern designs such as the M1 Abrams.

Because most of the time, tanks don’t need to be complicated. Cheap, uncomplicated and deadly enough is sufficient for most 21st century wars.

Why ‘Fallout’ Is the Best Nuclear War Story Ever Told

MATTHEW GAULT

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I wandered the wastelands, desperately searching for a water chip to fix a broken machine and save my people. I spent countless hours searching the California wastes for a Garden of Eden Creation Kit so I could feed a starving community.

I searched for a way to shower the D.C. wasteland in life-giving water, fought super mutants in the metro tunnels and wasted what felt like years playing the slots in New Vegas casinos while Caesar’s Legion fought the New California Republic to a bloody standstill.

I know that war … war never changes.

If that last line sent a shiver down your spine — either out of nostalgia or excitement — then you already know what I aim to prove — the best work of nuclear fiction ever made is a video game series called Fallout.

Video games are huge business, sales of electronic entertainment have surpassed movies, books and television for several years now. But more than that, video games are art. The medium possesses the unique ability to transport a player to another world completely.

5 mind-blowing facts about the US military

JON DAVIS

JUNE 26, 2015

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1) The United States Military is one of the world’s largest providers of international aid and disaster relief.

I enjoy this fact because so little is it remembered. Not only is the US military usually involved with most global conflicts, but they are also present in the time of need for almost every international natural disaster in which aid is needed. I love advertising this fact because so often I hear about all the evils of the United States, but not once have I ever heard the phrase, “Hey America. Thanks a bunch for the assist. Tsunamis really suck.”

As well as this the military also makes regular deployments to disenfranchised and impoverished developing nations to provide immediate health and medical support during times of non-violence or disaster. These services are free to the people of those nations and supported entirely by United States taxpayer dollars.

Hypersonic flight the next frontier for the Air Force

By Phillip Swarts

June 25, 2015

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Almost 70 years after Chuck Yeager and the Bell X-1 team broke the sound barrier, the Air Force is working to defy the next frontier in speed: hypersonic travel.

Defined as anything traveling above Mach 5, hypersonic flight usually clocks in between 3,800 and 4,000 miles per hour — fast enough to traverse the continental United States in about a half an hour.

Humans have reached those speeds before. NASA's X-15 program in the 1960's was able to reach speeds of Mach 5. And the Space Shuttle — while reentering the Earth's atmosphere and essentially free-falling from orbit — is estimated to reach speeds of Mach 25.

But the Air Force hopes to make the speed more commonplace than a spaceship landing on the planet. The service is looking to better understand and harness hypersonic flight technology to power missiles and — eventually — aircraft with "supersonic combustion ramjet" engines, or "scramjets."

How Hypersonic Missiles Push America and China towards War

Eleni G. Ekmektsioglou

June 28, 2015

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"Hypersonic weapons add to the complexity and elusiveness of the escalatory dynamics and this is something both sides will need to plan for."

Hypersonic weapons can achieve speeds over five times faster than the speed of sound (Mach 5) and they are the latest version of precision guided munitions (PGM) that make up part of the larger family of long-range strike weapons systems.

In the United States, hypersonic weapons are pursued in the context of the conventional prompt global strike (CPGS) commonly defined by officials as a technology of “high-precision conventional weapons capable of striking a target anywhere in the world within one hour’s time.” Outside the United States, states such as China or Russia have been pursuing this promising technology in secrecy. Therefore, we have little information regarding the stage of development the Russians or Chinese have achieved.

Revealed: India's Master Plan for the Indian Ocean

C. Raja Mohan

June 26, 2015

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On a March 2015 trip to Seychelles and Mauritius, Narendra Modi outlined a bold framework that overturned the political approach that India had taken towards the Indian Ocean for half a century. Beginning in the late 1960s, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi asked all major powers to withdraw from the Indian Ocean out of concern for great power rivalry. This approach fit with India’s self-perception as a non-aligned and Third World state, and its desire to be economically self reliant and to distance itself from the British Raj, which had long been the central security provider in the Indian Ocean.

The context which gave rise to the Gandhi approach began to change in the 1990s, as India embarked on a policy of economic globalization and ended its military isolation. India’s new maritime imperatives did not, however, translate into a vigorous national strategy. India’s approach was weighed down by a lack of coherence, political ambivalence, and above all, persistence of a continentalist mindset in Delhi’s security establishment. The top political leadership still had neither the time nor the inclination to lay out clear goals for the Indian Ocean or the maritime space beyond. China, much like India, had long had a continentalist obsession. As China began to build a blue water navy and put its weight behind its own maritime vision for the Pacific and Indian Oceans, however, Delhi was forced to consider the implications for its own maritime security.

The Ultimate 'What If': A World Where America Never Invaded Iraq

Robert Farley

June 28, 2015

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Every player of the popular video game Civilization knows to hit the save button before engaging in the risky, stupid invasion of foreign country. In the case of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, it became apparent after the first few months that the war was not working out as its framers had envisioned. The failure to find weapons of mass destruction was only the icing, so to speak, on the disaster of failed reconciliation, state collapse, and executive incompetence.

What if we had “saved game” before we invaded Iraq? What would America’s strategic options look like today?

How Not to Write About Atomic War

By David Axe

June 26, 2015

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The late Robert Heinlein wrote Starship Troopers, one of the Cold War’s best military novels — a scifi adventure set in a frightening, fascistic near-future and exploring universal, unchanging truths about combat, leadership and soldiering.

Heinlein, who died in 1988, also wrote one of the Cold War’s worst novels — the execrable Farnham’s Freehold, which I picked up on a whim last week at Angel City, a quaint used-book store in Santa Monica.

It was $2.95 well spent, but only in a cautionary sense. Farnham’s Freehold, a sorta-satirical speculative adventure about surviving atomic World War III, is as silly, alienating and tone-deaf as Starship Troopers is weighty, engaging and timeless.

Spoilers follow. But trust me, you don’t need to read this book. Now, where to begin …

1965: Assessment of Chief of the Army Staff

By Lt Gen Harbakhsh Singh

27 Jun , 2015

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I feel an assessment of the then Chief of the Army Staff, General Chowdhary, is called for.

I will be the first to admit that he had a very sharp brain, and could speak and write well, in English. His greatest failing was that he had an exalted opinion of himself. ‘He often passed smart alec remarks and doubted the intelligence of everyone (around him. As a soldier, I regret to say, he left much to be desired.

How else can you explain that throughout the duration of the War with Pakistan, he visited my Headquarters only thrice, that is on the 10th, the 14th and the 20th of September. And yet, on the early morning of the 23rd of September, soon after the cease-fire was announced, he was the first one to go to the Ichhogil Canal, with a photographer, and have his photograph taken for the press? Subsequently, to prove that he had participated fully in the War he had a book written by a well-known journalist which was completely fictitious.

India and Russia's Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft

By Dan Darling

June 20, 2015

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With Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi set to visit Russia on July 7, speculation is swirling about the potential for a final agreement between the two countries regarding a jointly developed and produced Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA). Since March, reports have circulated that India – faced with combat aircraft capacity pressures – is willing to exhibit greater negotiating flexibility with the Russians in order to move the program forward.

In addition to the non-stealth Dassault Rafale as its preference for a medium swing-role fighter, India has long viewed the FGFA as critical to meeting its air force's advanced jet fighter requirements.

As centerpieces of India's future strategic airpower component, both platforms are considered crucial in terms of providing more modern fighter options while also helping fill the Indian Air Force's (IAF's) goal of fielding 42-44 fighter squadrons by around 2027.

Pakistanis Come Together to Help Heat Wave Victims

By Zareen Muzaffar

June 27, 2015

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Basic infrastructure issues such as poor governance, corruption, and unclear planning haven’t deterred Pakistani citizens from forming community-based initiatives to help the victims of the recent heat wave. Due to escalating temperatures, the current heat wave in Pakistan has taken over 1000 lives while many others continue to suffer in the grueling conditions. According to the United Nations, Pakistan is one of the most water stressed countries in the world and electricity shortages have added to the growing problems in the country, especially for the impoverished community.

Incidentally, June is also the month (this year) when many Muslims are observing Ramadan and fasting from sunrise to sunset. Due to deeper a sense of spirituality, many people continue to fast despite the difficulties.Clerics and scholars have repeatedly told Muslim citizens in Pakistan that those who cannot bear fasting in difficult conditions can delay it.

Attack on Afghanistan’s Parliament

By Noah Coburn

June 26, 2015

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The audacious attack on the well-protected Afghan parliamentary building on June 23 demonstrates the Taliban’s continued ability to strike dead in the heart of Kabul, but more importantly also suggests that the battle in Afghanistan is just as much about politics as it is about military forces. While the causalities from the attack were not as great as in other high profile attacks in Kabul, the widely broadcast footage of the well attended session being interrupted by the initial explosion and the highly symbolic nature of the target was meant to send a clear political message.

First of all, the timing of the attack is important. In recent days, the Taliban have made significant territorial gains in both the north and the south of the country. While informal peace talks have occurred recently in Qatar and Norway, progress has been limited. Part of this, some have suggested, is the Taliban’s conviction that the central government is currently in a position of weakness.

How Did China Just Win Thailand’s New Submarine Bid?

By Prashanth Parameswaran

June 26, 2015

Source LInk

Thailand’s navy has elected to buy three submarines from China, moving the country one step closer to acquiring a capability it has lacked for more than six decades, media sources reported June 26 (See: “Thailand Eyes Submarine Fleet”).

According to The Bangkok Post, a source on the 17-member submarine procurement committee appointed by the Royal Thai Navy (RTN) revealed that a majority of its members had voted to buy three Chinese submarines costing 12 billion baht ($355 million) each because they were the “best value for money.” The rest of the committee members were apparently split between submarines from South Korea and Germany. As I have written previously, Thailand has lacked a submarine capability since 1951 and has tried but failed since the 1990s to ink submarine deals with several suppliers, including Seoul and Berlin (See: “Will Thailand Realize its Submarine Quest?”).

South China Sea Boils: China Sends Oil Rig Near Vietnam Again

Zachary Keck

June 26, 2015 

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China has moved an oil rig that was at the heart of a dispute with Vietnam last year to waters near Vietnam again, according to multiple news report.

Yesterday, Vietnamese newspapers began reporting, citing the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration (MSA), that China’s Haiyang Shiyou 981 (HD-981) oil rig was being moved to waters where China and Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) overlap. According to the news reports, the platform is now located 17°03'75’' North latitude and 109°59’05’’ East longitude.

In the statement, MSA warned that all ships must stay 2,000 meters away from the rig. The HD-981 will explore for oil and gas in the region between now and August 20, according to the MSA statement.

Hong Kong Postpones Political Development

By Tim Summers

June 26, 2015

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The long-awaited vote by Hong Kong’s legislature on reforming the method of selecting the Chief Executive (head of government) took place on June 18. Legislators rejected the government’s proposal – based on a framework issued in Beijing on August 31, 2014 – to introduce a popular vote for two or three candidates following nomination by a committee of 1,200 mainly pro-establishment figures.

The reforms needed two thirds of the legislature’s 70 votes to pass, but ever since the August framework was announced, 27 “pan-democrat” legislators had promised to veto any change. In the end 28 legislators opposed the government’s proposal and only eight voted in favor, after a bizarre walk-out by 31 pro-government legislators attempted but failed to delay the vote.

Can Air Power Defeat the ISIS?

By Air Marshal Anil Chopra

27 Jun , 2015

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The USA decided to lead a coalition of countries to stem the Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi-led ISIS expansion. The ISIS has around 70,000 fighters including 8,000 in Libya and 10,000 in Nigeria. It is also estimated to have at least one attack helicopter, three MiG-21 and five drones. A large number of regional players who felt threatened by the rise of ISIS entered the conflict in support of the Western alliance. Iraqis were tasked to fight the ground war and the Coalition was to handle the air campaign to make it convenient to regain territory. Two recent events, the internationally supported Iran nuclear deal and the Saudi led attack on Yemen has added a new dimension. The air campaign that began on August 08, 2014 has now accelerated and finally started showing results. The US-led air campaign in Iraq and Syria has now been designated as Operation Inherent Resolve.

Are the Iran Nuclear Talks Too Big to Fail?

Emily B. Landau, Shimon Stein

June 26, 2015 

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"...today we understand that almost any deal is considered better than no deal."

Is failure an option when it comes to the Iran nuclear talks? The short answer to this question—at least for the United States—is emerging as “no.” While for the longest time we were urged to trust the international negotiators that “all options are on the table” for dealing with Iran, in reality, they are not. Only one option is on the table, and that is diplomacy.

In and of itself, diplomacy certainly is the preferable option, but its value depends on how it is played. Indeed, for the past year and a half, we have been told that the alternative to the negotiations—indeed to every single step the negotiators have taken over the past eighteen months—is either a nuclear Iran or war.

Korea's Latest High-Altitude Protest Targets Kia Motors

By Steven Denney

June 27, 2015

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Two workers are protesting what they call illegal labor practices by Kia Motors. 

About two weeks ago, two informal workers at Kia Motors, Choi Jeong-myong and Han Kyu-hyop,lowered a moderate sized banner across an electronic display board at the National Human Rights Commission of Korea, a building located next door to Seoul City Hall. The banner exhorted the chairman of the Hyundai-Kia Automotive Group, Chung Mong-koo, to “take responsibility for irregular and regular Kia Motors employees.” Thus began the latest “high-altitude sit-in” (gogong nongseong) against labor market conditions in South Korea in what is becoming a regular symbolic and cultural expression of discontent with the changes made to the Korean labor market over the last few decades.

In particular, this sit-in protests unlawful labor practices by Kia Motors. According to a Media Today report, after being accused of unlawfully employing more than 3,000 new workers (the terms of their employment are not specified), Kia promised to move more than 450 of them to regular employment positions by next year. This promise, apparently, is not being honored. Rather than offering permanent employment, Kia is supposedly hiring the worker under “special employment” conditions — a move considered both dishonest and illegal by the employees and their union representatives.

Speculation on Russia’s Recent Drone Deployment

By Casey Michel

June 26, 2015

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A report suggests Moscow is trying to counter Beijing’s influence in Central Asia. But the evidence is thin. 

Last week, a report emerged that seemed to point to growing friction between Russia and China in Central Asia. According to WantChinaTimes, Russia’s recent deployment of drone technology in Central Asia was not due to Islamist threats in northern Afghanistan. Rather, according to the paper, Moscow opted to test its drones “to confront Chinese influence in the region.” As WantChinaTimes continued, “Since Russia itself relies heavily on economic exchanges with China, military deterrence is now the only way Putin can confront Chinese influence in the region.”

Watch Out, America: Russia Sends Super Advanced S-400 to NATO's Borders

Zachary Keck

June 26, 2015

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Russia’s beefing up its air and missile defense systems near its borders with NATO countries, according to local media reports.

This week, Sputnik reported that Russia’s Western Military District is increasing the number of S-400 Triumf and Pantsir-S air defense systems in its area of operations.

"Modern S-400 Triumf long-range air defense systems and Pantsir-S gun-missile air defense systems will be put in service with air defense units of the Western Military District by the end of this year," Col. Oleg Kochetkov, a spokesperson for the Western Military District, said, Sputnik reported.

The S-400 is Russia’s most advanced air and missile defense system, and its deployment in greater numbers along Russia’s borders with NATO could challenge the latter’s ability to achieve air dominance in the event of a conflict with Moscow.

Fix NATO or Risk WWIII

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The Balts, Nordics and Poles have a rare collective opportunity to team up with NATO against Putin. But will they? 

NATO’s credibility is at stake in the Baltic. 

A glance at the map shows all too clearly that reinforcing the Baltic states in a crisis is hard without the help of non-NATO Sweden and Finland. In fact, it’s impossible—unless the West is willing to react to a Russian invasion or other provocation with nuclear weapons. The choice is stark: See the end of NATO, or risk World War III. 

Vladimir Putin knows this. He is systematically provoking the countries of the region to highlight the Kremlin’s relative strength. Russia has kidnapped an Estonian security official. It threatens and practices the use of nuclear weapons. It has warned Sweden and Finland not to even think about joining NATO. It runs a relentless propaganda campaign against the Baltic states. It carries out dummy attacks with nuclear-capable aircraft. It flies warplanes around the region with their transponders switched off, endangering civilian aircraft.