Indian Strategic Studies: March 2015

31 March 2015

What the states got right

By Dhanmanjiri Sathe

March 31, 2015

The pace of land acquisition, which has been taking place in India since Independence, increased after liberalisation. In more cases than not, it has been successful, that is, both buyer and seller have been satisfied with the outcome. But today, land acquisition is being portrayed as next to impossible. This perception is not based on reality and needs to be changed. The farmer is wrongly being portrayed as extremely emotional, irrational and unwilling to part with land.

A dispassionate look at the facts would clear some misconceptions. First, according to the National Sample Survey Organisation, in 2005, 40 per cent of farmers did not want to engage in agriculture. This figure would have increased substantially over the last 10 years in the face of farm distress. Logically speaking, a large number of farmers should be willing to accept a viable alternative — the operative word here being “viable”.

BJP’s power nap

Mar 30, 2015

http://www.asianage.com/columnists/bjp-s-power-nap-250

Since the martyrdom of Syama Prasad Mookerjee, the demand of the Jan Sangh had been that Article 370 be scrapped. By agreeing to the status quo, the BJP has conceded ground.

A month has elapsed since the alliance of convenience — People’s Democratic Party-Bharatiya Janata Party — came to power in Jammu and Kashmir. Two parties with a diametrically opposite agenda got together in pursuit of power. From day one, there have been contradictions that put a question mark on how long their alliance will last.

The swearing-in function of the coalition on March 4 was a grand affair with much bonhomie and hugging. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the top BJP leadership attended the function. PDP chief Mufti Muhammad Sayeed had every reason to rejoice. Normally major coalition partners share chief ministership for half the term each, but the BJP withdrew its claim, giving Mr Sayeed a free run for six years, provided the alliance lasts that long. Last time, he was chief minister for only three years in a coalition with the Congress.

The Great Game Folio: Pakistan in Yemen

By C Raja Mohan

March 31, 2015

Islamabad is under pressure from Saudi Arabia to join the military operations by the Sunni coalition that Riyadh is leading against the Iran-backed Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen. But there is little popular support in Pakistan for jumping into a war that has acquired such a sharp sectarian edge.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was summoned a few weeks ago to Riyadh as King Salman considered muscular options to reverse the Houthi advances in Yemen. Besides Pakistan’s longstanding special relationship with Saudi Arabia, Sharif personally owes much to the House of Saud that saved him from the wrath of General Pervez Musharraf after the army ousted him in a coup at the end of 1999.

India should not forget its history

By Maj Gen Sukhwant Singh

30 Mar , 2015

“India should not forget its history,” Bhutto observed on the eve of the India-Pakistan conflict in 1950. Indeed, India has a sad history of centuries of subjugation imposed by the power of the sword. The invaders came, both across the land frontiers and the sea, and each time, however stout the defence, Indian armies were crushed. The successive wars were lost not because our armies lacked numbers and mounts or heavier armaments. The reasons lay elsewhere. In fact, India wielded heavier forces, but so wedded was it to the past and outmoded military concepts that the invaders brought to play the unexpected to outwit its generals, and always won decisively. Superior leadership and stratagem triumphed. India has certainly a lot to learn from its military history.

History becomes a nation’s mirror. To find flaws so as to remedy them, the nation should have the courage to look into the mirror. There should be courage to accept the reflection, however grotesque. It is only then that the progressive path towards improvement can be sought. But then the mirror must be true, free of distortion and flattering magnification. Likewise, history, if it is to serve as the nation’s mirror, has to be truthful and objective.

Will India Lease Another Russian Nuclear Submarine?

March 30, 2015

In December 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to India, traditionally a major consumer of Russia-made military equipment. In New Delhi, Putin met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the two pledged to deepen their defense ties. During that visit, Russia’s trade minister, Denis Manturov, hinted that Moscow would eagerly lease a nuclear submarine to India if there was interest: “If India decides to have more contracts to lease nuclear submarines, we are ready to supply,” he noted. India currently operates one Akula-II-class nuclear submarine, the INS Chakra, leased in 2011 from Russia for a 10 year period. The lease weighs in at $970 million, representing a considerable portion of India’s cumulative spending on Russian equipment.

The T-14 Is a New Russian Tank —And a Whole Lot More

By PAUL HUARD

The Kremlin plans a dozen other vehicles with the same chassis

In March, a Russian motorist filmed a very unusual, camouflaged tank rolling down a street outside Moscow. Most likely, it was the mysterious T-14 — or Armata — heavy tank, which could represent a major evolution in Russian tank design.

The Kremlin has largely kept the T-14 under wraps, both literally and metaphorically. But we have a pretty good idea of what it can do.

Who Defines Islam?

Joseph A. Bosco

March 30, 2015

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/who-defines-islam-12501

The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) and other terrorist groups purporting to act in the name of Islam have precipitated two fundamental questions in the West. First, can non-Muslims credibly comment on the nature of Islam? Second, is Islamic ideology more disposed to violence than other religions?

These are familiar questions for those of us who worked in the office of the Secretary of Defense after September 11, 2001, tasked with preparing the Bush administration’s seminal brief on the “battle of ideas” as a critical component of the “global war on terrorism.”

How Ashraf Ghani's Government Will Address Afghanistan's Endemic Problems

By Hannah Gais

March 30, 2015

Speaking in New York City, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani outlined his government’s approach to Afghanistan’s varied problems.

Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai may have been the ally the United States didn’t want but needed. But the country’s current president, Ashraf Ghani, has so far proved to be the ideal partner.

In just one of many stops on his whirlwind U.S. visit this month, Ghani addressed a packed room on March 26 at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. In an hour-long discussion with Robert E. Rubin, the council’s co-chairman and former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Ghani — who was elected to the presidency in September 2014 — outlined the challenges his administration faces, his plans to rework Afghanistan’s free-falling economy, and the partners he intends to court along the way.

How Will Pakistan Respond to the Crisis in Yemen?

March 30, 2015

As Arab states head to war in Yemen, Pakistan weighs its options.

Reports late last week in the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere suggested that Pakistan, given its close ties to Saudi Arabia, was considering its involvement in the Saudi-led campaign against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Last week, Saudi Arabia, on the request of ousted Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, initiated air strikes and a naval blockade against the Iran-backed Shia Houthi rebels who had captured the Yemeni capital of Sana’a earlier this year. The Yemeni government claimed that the Houthis were planning to overthrow the government and create a Shia state in Yemen while the Houthis see themselves as combating religious intolerance from the government.

Chinese Operations in Balochistan Again Targeted by Militants

By Kiyya Baloch

March 27, 2015

A fleet of oil tankers is attacked, as local tensions flare over major development projects.

In an attack on Monday, unknown militants set at least five oil tankers on fire and abducted four drivers reportedly carrying fuel for a Chinese company working on the Saindak Project in Balochistan’s Chaghi district, outside the provincial capital Quetta. Police sources said the privately owned tankers were targeted because they supply oil to a Chinese company working on a major project in mineral-rich Balochistan province.The attack took place as Pakistan prepares to hand over its deep sea Gwadar port to Chinese interests in the coming month. The atmosphere surrounding the handover is tense.

India’s Pakistan Problem

MARCH 25, 2015

At the recent Counter Terrorism Conference held between 19th and 22nd March 2015, India’s Home Minister Rajnath Singh while talking about cross border terrorism said,

“The source of most terrorist activity in India lies across our borders. It is unfortunate that even after paying such a heavy cost for itself, Pakistan and its associates find it difficult to understand that there are no ‘good terrorists and bad terrorists’. Differentiating terrorists into ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ categories has failed miserably. If the ISI and the Pakistan army stops its support to certain terror outfits.”

Strengthening the Asia-Africa Partnership

By Awidya Santikajaya and Adib Zaidani Abdurrohman

March 29, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/strengthening-the-asia-africa-partnership/

An event next month is an ideal opportunity to institutionalize a partnership that offers considerable opportunity.

Next month, Indonesia will be hosting the commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the 1955 Asia-Africa Conference. According to Indonesian President Joko Widodo, the commemoration aspires to remind the world that Indonesia played a significant role in the anti-colonial struggle. Amidst complex contemporary global politics, it will be a challenge for Jokowi to convince the world that this Asia-Africa gathering is necessary and relevant. Institutionalizing effective cooperation between the two continents should be a priority.

CHINA’S MIDDLE EAST CHOICE

March 30, 2015

http://warontherocks.com/2015/03/chinas-middle-east-choice/

The Chinese government thinks U.S. policy towards the Middle East is misguided. Citing the invasion of Iraq, support for political transitions, and a willingness to embroil itself in regional conflicts, Beijing often implies that the United States destabilizes the Middle East.

Stability lies at the heart of China’s engagement in the Middle East. Until now, China has enjoyed the benefit of both physical and political distance from the Middle East, having no interest in navigating political conflicts and dealing with unstable regimes. This has given it the freedom to criticize the state of affairs, all the while increasing its economic footprint throughout the Gulf, Levant, and North Africa. Over time, Middle Eastern petroleum and natural gas became essentials for maintaining China’s economy. This resulted in the region becoming of greater strategic value.

China’s Credit Overdose

MAR 28, 2015

SHANGHAI – The days of double-digit economic growth in China are over. Indeed, the annual growth rate, which has been lingering at about 7.5% since 2012, is predicted to fall to 7% this year – and is likely to go lower. This is China’s “new normal,”characterized, according to China’s leaders, by “medium-to-high-speed” (instead of high-speed) growth. But perhaps even this is optimistic.

In the last two years, credit grew almost twice as fast as GDP, and total social financing grew even faster. Yet GDP growth slowed considerably – from an annual average of 10.2% in 2002-2011 – suggesting that China may be moving closer to a medium-to-low-speed growth path.

Checkmate: China's New Bank Wins Over U.S. Allies

March 30, 2015

Two weeks ago, the United Kingdom applied to become a founding member of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a financial institution proposed by China and designed to finance large-scale infrastructure projects in Asia. The decision triggered a scathing—and unusually public—rebuke from London’s Atlantic ally, the United States, which had lobbied hard against the bank. Encouraged by the United Kingdom’s decision, France, Germany, and Italy quickly followed suit, with Australia, South Korea, and possibly even Japan soon to follow.

Australia To Join China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

March 30, 2015

Just a few days shy of China’s end-of-March deadline for founding membership in the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Australia confirmed that it will join the AIIB.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s government announced over the weekend that it had chosen to sign on to join the bank as a founding member, becoming the latest U.S.-allied state to join an institution that some in the United States see as a competitor to U.S.-led international financial institutions, like the World Bank.

Lee Kuan Yew and Singapore’s Future

By Joshua Kurlantzick

March 28, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/lee-kuan-yew-and-singapores-future/

Singapore is much better prepared for the post-Lee Kuan Yew era than many of its critics admit.

In the wake of the death of Singapore’s founding father, Lee Kuan Yew, many obituaries lauding Lee’s role in transforming the city-state also have argued that Singapore faces high hurdles to continuing Lee’s revolution. As Forbes’ Joel Kotkin writes, Lee’s achievements during his three decades as prime minister were extraordinary, but in Singapore today the “durability of his legacy is in question.”

Arresting Corruption in China

By Yukon Huang

March 30, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/arresting-corruption-in-china/

Why China’s form of corruption is so unique — and how to address the problem.

China’s new leadership appears to be cautious on economic reforms but hard hitting on corruption. The campaign has the strong support of the public but its immediate economic implications are more mixed. Officials appear hesitant to make decisions and conspicuous consumption has declined — all of which have accentuated the current slowdown. These concerns raise questions about the role that corruption has played in shaping China’s development success over the past several decades.

Mearsheimer’s War With China

By Amitai Etzioni

March 29, 2015

http://thediplomat.com/2015/03/mearsheimers-war-with-china/

The provocative political scientist foresees tense relations between the U.S. and China.

In the new edition of his 2001 book, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, John J. Mearsheimer lives up to his reputation as a provocative political scientist. In a substantial new chapter on China, Mearsheimer extends his previous argument that the United States and China are about to engage in a “security competition” that is likely to end in war.

Sectarian rivalries growing

G Parthasarathy

Religious extremism escalates tensions in the Islamic world

During its first year in office, the Modi government has focused primary attention on its eastern, South Asian and Indian Ocean neighbourhood to build a stable balance of power across India's land and maritime frontiers. But new challenges, alliances and groupings are emerging in the predominantly Islamic region, extending from the Persian Gulf to the shores of the Mediterranean, which India cannot afford to ignore. This is a region where six million Indians reside, remitting some $40 billion annually, from where we get over 75 per cent of our supplies of oil and natural gas. Three major developments require careful attention. These are the emergence of the ISIS, the growing Persian-Arab and sectarian Shia-Sunni tensions and the possibility of a negotiated end to the Iranian nuclear impasse. All this is occurring amidst the fall in global oil and gas prices, which is imposing strains on the economies of countries in the Persian Gulf.

The Coming China Crisis

Spring 2015

http://ineteconomics.org/institute-blog/coming-china-crisis

On the morning of September 8, 2016, the Wenzhou Credit Trust, one of the many trust companies in China, went into default. The firm discontinued all new lending and suspended redemption and interest payments on its trust certificates, the equivalent of deposits made by its customers.

At the time, the failure didn’t seem all that unusual. A handful of trust companies—“shadow lenders” that make loans, often the riskiest ones, outside of China’s conventional banks—had done the same in recent years. But within a week, another trust company went into default, and the following week, so did seven more. Angry trust-certificate holders protested in Wenzhou and Chongqing but were quelled by police. Those protests hardly seemed noteworthy at first—for years, there had been hundreds of protests and disturbances across China—but it turned out they presaged something new.

How Saudis Took the Lead in Yemen

By Eli Lake ; Josh Rogin

MAR 27, 2015

The Saudi Arabian-led intervention into Yemen's civil war Thursday was remarkable for both the size of the coalition involved and the speed with which the plan coalesced. The U.S., which withdrew its last special operations forces from Yemen over the weekend, had only a brief warning that Saudi airpower was about to be unleashed.

U.S. and Arab officials tell us that the tripwire for the military action was Iranian-backed Houthi rebels storming the Yemeni port city of Aden, where President Abdurabuh Mansur Hadi had taken refuge earlier this month. On Thursday, Egyptian warships entered the Gulf of Aden, a strategic water route between the Red and Arabian Seas, while Saudi jets pounded Houthi positions on the mainland.

IRAN VIEWPOINT: ASSESSING ROHANI’S FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA – OPED

By Seyed Jafar Hashemi

One of the most important questions posed by many parties, groups and even ordinary people about the new Iranian administration is “in what direction does the new administration’s foreign policy moves and basically, what goals does it pursue?”

To answer this question away from any bias and prejudgment, foreign policy priorities of Dr. Hassan Rouhani’s administration should be reviewed first before assessing the degree of success with which those priorities have been realized.

Understanding the Gulf States

F. Gregory Gause

Spring 2015

On November 16, 2014, Arab news outlets flashed a picture of the young ruler of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim Al Thani, kissing the forehead of the then-aged monarch of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah. That kiss, a common gesture in the Arabian Peninsula of respect by the young for their elders, supposedly sealed a reconciliation between Qatar and the other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), the club of monarchical energy producers in the Persian Gulf that, in addition to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, includes Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman. Qatar had fallen out with GCC members over its maverick policy of supporting Islamist groups, encouraging a freer press through its sponsorship of the Al Jazeera satellite television network, and generally putting itself forward as an independent voice in regional foreign-policy issues.

Saudi Arabia’s Big Gamble

BY SIMON HENDERSON

MARCH 26, 2015

But the airstrikes, troop movements, and suicide bombings that are dominating today’s headlines have nothing to do with the long-running conflicts over Israel, Palestine, Syria, or Iran’s nuclear program.

Don’t think that the events in Yemen, however, are peripheral. They are central to the balance of power within the Arab world, to tensions within Islam, and are at the core of fears in the global oil market. The new leadership of Saudi Arabia, whose military launched airstrikes on Iranian-backed Houthi rebels on March 26 and which has been steadily securing its grip on power, is the key player in shaping the course of this volatile new war in the Middle East. Still nonplussed?

Playing Both Sides of the Fence

BY KATE BRANNEN, SEÁN D. NAYLORMARCH

Sectarian war is spreading in the Middle East, and Washington finds itself fighting with Sunnis in one country and with Shiites in another.

Playing Both Sides of the Fence

As it comes to the aid of Mideast allies, the United States is straddling both sides of a regional sectarian war — one where Washington is simultaneously fighting and supporting Shiite militias that are backed by Iran.

In Iraq, American warplanes this week finally joined a stalemated assault against the Islamic State in Tikrit. The battle initially was launched by Iraqi security forces, Iranian commanders, and thousands of Shiite militiamen — many of whom fought with military and intelligence support provided by Tehran. The United States says it joined the fight only after being assured that the Iraqi government was leading the battle, and that the militias most closely linked to Iran had left.

New Age Of Water Wars Portends ‘Bleak Future’ For The Middle East

By Nafeez Ahmed

March 26, 2015

Behind the escalating violence in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, as well as the epidemic of civil unrest across the wider region, is a growing shortage of water.

New peer-reviewed research published by the American Water Works Association (AWWA) shows that water scarcity linked to climate change is now a global problem playing a direct role in aggravating major conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa.

Numerous cities in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia are facing “short and declining water supplies per capita,” which is impacting “worldwide” on food production, urban shortages, and even power generation.

IMF Report on Indian Corporates – wakeup call for Government of India

20 March 2015

In a series of articles in the run up to the Budget 2015 I had pointed out on the weak financials of the Indian corporate sector. The consequential debilitating impact on the economy, especially in the finances of our nationalised banks, too was explained in these pieces.

Last week the International Monetary Fund published the Indian Country Report [IMF Country Report 15/62 published in March 2015] more or less echoed my views on the depressed state of the Indian Corporate sector. Chapter VIII and IX of the said Report are instructive. Let me summarise the findings of this report for the benefit of the reader.

Ukraine Doesn’t Have a Warlord Problem

BY ALEXANDER J. MOTYL

MARCH 26, 2015

One analyst claims that “Eastern Ukraine is awash with weapons and armed militia groups on both sides.” Another speaks darkly of “independently operating warlords and armed groups.” A third writes of “independent and semi-independent battalions, some of which descend from Ukrainian nationalist groups, extreme elements of the Maidan self-defense forces, and criminal groups.” You’d think Ukraine was on the verge of chaos.

Unstoppable: Brazil's Endless Cycle of Corruption

Scott MacDonald

March 30, 2015

Brazil is the world’s seventh-largest economy, a leading commodity exporter and home to one of the Western Hemisphere’s biggest aspiring middle classes. Since the 1980s, Brazil has also been a flagship democracy among Emerging Market countries, with competitive elections, a vibrant press and at times a contentious public discourse. For all of the confidence that marked Brazil over the last several years, Latin America’s largest economy is now struggling, the political system shaken by a major scandal at the state-owned oil company,Petrobras, while a malaise appears to have settled over the economy and society. Brazil is adrift.

Drive from Europe to the U.S.? Russia proposes world's greatest superhighway

By Chuck Thompson

March 25, 2015

It could happen if the head of Russian Railways has his way.

According to a March 23 report in The Siberian Times, Russian Railways president Vladimir Yakunin has proposed a plan for a massive trans-Siberian highway that would link his country's eastern border with the U.S. state of Alaska, crossing a narrow stretch of the Bering Sea that separates Asia and North America.

The scheme was unveiled at a meeting of the Moscow-based Russian Academy of Science.

Neocon’s Blatant Speak of the US “Exceptional” Right of Aggression

By Georgi Stankov

March 18, 2015

Stratfor is the social branch of the CIA. Some refer to this organisation as the “Shadow CIA”. Its CEO and co-founder George Friedman is the blatant mouthpiece of the neocons’ doctrine as to how the USA should destroy the rest of the world in order to secure its hegemonic dominance and eventually establish the NWO.

In my comprehensive essay of yesterday “Ascension Through Constant Creation” I dealt in a cursory manner with human history and showed how it was dominated by various empires that tried to achieve a lasting hegemony over the rest of the world, but all failed at some point in time. I also proved in an impeccable manner that all political doctrines of national states, no matter how sophisticated or weird, are invariably derived from the primordial idea of scarcity – primarily scarcity of natural resources – which is the negation of the existence and omnipotence of the soul and the Source, and the exuberant creative abundance of All-That-Is.

The Perfect Storm For Oil Hits In Two Months: US Crude Production To Soar Just As Storage Runs Out

03/22/2015

Less than two weeks ago we warned that based on the current oil production trend, the US may run out of storage for crude as soon as June.

Does Iran Have Secret Nukes in North Korea?

Gordon G. Chang

03.29.15

Washington’s nuclear deal with Tehran depends on aggressive inspections inside Iran. But the mullahs may well have a secret program outside their borders.

In October 2012, Iran began stationing personnel at a military base in North Korea, in a mountainous area close to the Chinese border. The Iranians, from the Ministry of Defense and associated firms, reportedly are working on both missiles and nuclear weapons. Ahmed Vahidi, Tehran’s minister of defense at the time,denied sending people to the North, but the unconfirmed dispatches make sense in light of the two states announcing a technical cooperation pact the preceding month.

Cyberspace: No Man’s Land

By Maj Gen AK Chadha

30 Mar , 2015

Cyberspace is a vast, complex and rapidly changing battle space. The key to prevailing in a hostile cyber space environment may lie in the ability to generate a comprehensive picture of that environment. In the kinetic realm, the “fog of war” is a term derived from Clausewitz referring to uncertain knowledge about the adversary, and the position and activities of the own forces in the midst of an operation. While situational awareness is a major challenge already in traditional warfare, the ‘fog of cyber war’ may well be so thick that it could become the primary impediment to victory. Thus, developing the techniques and tools for cyber situational awareness would be paramount to achieving strategic, operational or tactical advantage in this novel domain.

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