Stepping On Legos: The All Too Familiar Pain of Being Behind the Curve in the Information Environment

Small Wars Journal | Jayson Warren

Operation Epic Fury has exposed critical shortfalls in U.S. military preparedness within the information environment as Iranian information warfare campaigns flood social media with high-quality, low-cost AI-generated propaganda. Tehran’s prolific output, featuring viral Lego-style videos and targeted persona-level harassment, has severely strained U.S. Joint Force defensive mechanisms. This breakdown highlights structural deficiencies in integrating information as a core line of effort alongside kinetic operations.

Operational planners still treat information as a supporting function rather than a primary operational pillar. U.S. capabilities are lagging. If current military processes buckle under Iranian pressure, they will prove entirely untenable during a high-intensity conflict against China in 2030 or beyond. Beijing already possesses vastly superior online disinformation infrastructure, including network-synchronised troll campaigns and massive stolen intelligence databases from events like the 2015 Office of Personnel Management hack. Consequently, the Joint Force must immediately re-evaluate its operational information procedures and command structures.

China is building an AI system for tailoring its foreign propaganda

The Strategist | Fergus Ryan

China is developing advanced artificial intelligence systems to model foreign audiences, simulate their responses to events, and refine state messaging. Sun Yat-sen University unveiled Huanyu Zhiying 1.0 in April 2026, a platform built from over 10,000 simulated user profiles spanning 18 countries. Real-world survey data, including responses from Australia, the United States, Britain, Canada, India, Malaysia, France, and South Africa, combined with the World Values Survey and social-media inputs, underpin these synthetic populations.

Operating as an experimental pipeline, the platform fine-tunes Alibaba Qwen models to generate fabricated foreign coverage and predict sentiment shifts before messages reach real-world publics. This initiative implements Xi Jinping's 2021 call for precision communication methods tailored to diverse regional audiences. While developers concede the system remains an interim research result lacking published error rates, its creation marks a strategic shift from high-volume automated messaging toward computational testing and optimization of influence operations.

What the Iran War Is Teaching China About US Power

National Interest | Gedaliah Afterman, Caroline Dibble

Six months of conflict under Operation Epic Fury have tested American global commitments by stretching US military resources across both the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific. While US forces degraded Iranian capabilities, sustained attacks using Shahed drones and ballistic missiles caused an estimated $400 million in damage to Naval Support Activity Bahrain and left critical interceptor stockpiles depleted.

This dual-theater strain forced the redeployment of carrier strike groups and delayed a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan, creating political uncertainty among key Asian allies including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines. Meanwhile, Beijing is closely studying American staying power, noting how Iran leveraged maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and managed energy supply shocks. Consequently, China now gains diplomatic leverage from Washington's military burden, signaling that future Indo-Pacific deterrence depends heavily on the unyielding reliability of American security commitments.

AI’s Threat to China’s Control

Wall Street Journal | Walter Russell Mead

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed establishing an artificial-intelligence communication channel in New York after meeting on Sept. 21, 2026. Both global superpowers seek military and economic advantages while fearing potential economic turmoil, job losses, and technological catastrophes. However, Beijing faces a unique existential challenge because unfiltered artificial intelligence threatens absolute communist party rule and ideological control.

Unlike Washington, Chinese officials worry deeply that generative models trained on real-world data will undermine state propaganda narratives. Deep bilateral cooperation remains difficult to build because the two governments view identical technological risks through fundamentally divergent political lenses. Establishing reliable communication channels will require navigating these deep ideological fault lines regarding information access and domestic political stability. Meanwhile, both nations continue pressing forward with technological development to secure strategic supremacy in the emerging digital landscape.

America Is Blundering Toward War With China

New York Times | Robert D. Kaplan

President Trump must strike the correct balance in his upcoming summit with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, to avoid repeating historical miscalculations regarding Beijing. Historical missteps began during World War II when Washington backed Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists and remained oblivious to the impending Communist victory under Mao Zedong. The subsequent 'who lost China?'

debate during the Red Scare purged knowledgeable State Department specialists, creating a direct link to the disastrous Vietnam War intervention. The diplomatic opening by President Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger in 1972 eventually normalized relations, which lasted until the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown and the collapse of the Soviet Union transformed Beijing's strategic standing. Current policymakers must navigate these complex historical currents carefully to prevent catastrophic escalation. Washington faces immense diplomatic stakes as modern geopolitical competition intensifies across the Indo-Pacific.

The Israeli Card

Real Clear Defense | R. Jordan Prescott

America and Israel face an impending diplomatic and strategic rupture driven by shifting political dynamics, generational divides, and intense partisan polarization within the United States. Following the October 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent conflicts involving Iran, American public and congressional support for Israel has plummeted, threatening future military aid packages and qualitative edge guarantees.

Amid this fraying alliance, China is poised to leverage its decisive influence over Iran and prioritize regional energy security by playing the Israeli card. Beijing could condition reconstruction aid to Tehran on a permanent cessation of hostilities while offering Israel an alternative technological and strategic partnership. This geopolitical realignment would stabilize the Middle East, protect Chinese export markets from energy shocks, and displace Washington from a vital region just as triangular diplomacy once reshaped Cold War dynamics.

With Time on His Side, Xi Seeks to Extend Truce With Trump

The New York Times | David Pierson

Chinese leader Xi Jinping enters this week's Washington meetings with President Trump holding a distinct political advantage stemming from opposing domestic timelines. While the American president faces constraints from upcoming midterm elections and an ongoing war, Xi prepares for a norm-shattering fourth term securing five more years in power.

This disparity enables Xi to sustain the bilateral truce reached last year, shielding his fragile domestic economy from renewed trade conflict while he answers to no electorate. Avoiding escalation allows Beijing to address profound economic weakness driven by a property crisis, high youth unemployment, and excess production capacity. Furthermore, the détente provides necessary breathing room to reconstitute military leadership purged during anti-corruption campaigns and to expand industrial and technological capabilities. Xi is ultimately wagering that leveraging personal diplomacy with Trump can successfully insulate the broader geopolitical relationship from flash points like Taiwan and artificial intelligence dominance.

Why Trump is leaving Saudi Arabia alone to fight the Houthis — even as they threaten global oil supplies

New York Post | Ronny Reyes

Saudi Arabia faces renewed Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks without military backing from President Trump or regional allies who fear Iranian retaliation. President Trump declined to intervene against the Yemen-based group after receiving assurances that US interests would be spared. Turkey and Pakistan also declined to step up under the Mecca Agreement, arguing the conflict stems from pre-existing Yemeni civil wars rather than new mutual defense triggers.

Riyadh is currently running low on missile interceptors as Houthi forces control the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and disrupt flow along the Saudi East-West Pipeline. These disruptions pushed crude oil prices near $100 per barrel before dipping below the triple-digit threshold. Analysts warn that Iran may leverage the ongoing Houthi escalation to extract broader regional concessions, complicating diplomatic efforts to stabilize energy markets and secure vital maritime chokepoints across the Middle East.

Trump cites military need for arch. He could be putting armed services in a bad spot.

The Christian Science Monitor | Anna Mulrine Grobe

President Donald Trump claimed on September 20, 2026, that his proposed 250-foot arch near Arlington National Cemetery is required by the U.S. armed forces to store ammunition, snipers, and drones for national security. Defense analysts and military legal experts immediately dismissed this operational rationale, warning that stashing explosive munitions near the Pentagon and Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport creates severe safety risks and high-profile target vulnerabilities for the capital region.

Civil-military relations face unprecedented friction. Retired Major General Steven Lepper warned that claiming uniformed leadership requested the facility places military leaders in an untenable position, as institutional duty prevents top officers from publicly contradicting executive statements. Meanwhile, Representative Mike Simpson signaled strong congressional pushback against diverting constrained defense appropriations toward the urban monument, while the Former JAGs Working Group highlighted emergency legal filings by veterans seeking to block construction at Memorial Circle.

America’s Attrition Trap

Foreign Affairs | Nadia Schadlow

Attritional warfare has become the defining feature of modern conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, driven by structural mismatches between nominal military power and usable capability, rapid technological adaptation that prevents decisive breakthroughs, and a profound disconnection between military means and political ends. Nadia Schadlow examines how states from Russia to Iran exploit these vulnerabilities by outlasting adversaries, leveraging inexpensive systems, and weaponizing political pressure.

For the United States, this dynamic presents an acute strategic dilemma because current defense planning continues to prioritize short, decisive campaigns rather than enduring endurance contests. Without rebuilding industrial depth and aligning military means with attainable political goals, Washington risks remaining vulnerable to adversaries that systematically exploit attrition to erode American resolve.

Old Military Networks, New Cyber Shield: General Dynamics Unveils ‘Everest’

NextGen Defense | Akhsan Erido Elezhar

General Dynamics Information Technology introduced the Everest Zero Trust portfolio to secure legacy military IT networks without replacing existing infrastructure. The suite comprises Clarity for assessing infrastructure, Flex for modular security integration, and Unified for full-stack protection in new environments. Everest recently completed a government red-team cyber assessment on an upgraded IT system.

The portfolio is designed to counter sophisticated AI-fueled threats targeting US defense networks. This capability allows defense agencies to meet the Department of War zero trust mandates cost-effectively.

Hegseth announces new Pentagon battlefield test for promotions to general

The Hill | Ellen Mitchell, Filip Timotija

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has announced a new battlefield-style assessment, titled the Joint Warfighter Evaluation, required for colonels and Navy captains seeking promotion to general or admiral. The initiative alters the senior officer promotion process by evaluating operational decision-making under stress rather than relying solely on traditional administrative performance reviews.

Conceptualized alongside former military officer Stuart Scheller and Defense Department personnel official Anthony Tata, the framework draws historical inspiration from the 1941 Louisiana Maneuvers. Service branches will deploy customized assessment models. The Army plans written tests alongside digital wargames, whereas Navy candidates will complete evaluations at the Naval War College in Newport. Furthermore, the Marine Corps will utilize AI-enabled situational judgment tests, while Joint Forces Staff College students will undergo assessments in Norfolk, Virginia. Hegseth previously blocked select flag officer promotions over concerns regarding non-merit criteria, advocating for standardized operational competence across all military services.

The United States’ Prosecution Of Nicolás Maduro Moros: United States Vs. Maduro

Eurasia Review | Karen Sokol

United States armed forces seized Nicolás Maduro in Caracas on January 3, 2026, prompting the unsealing of a superseding indictment in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York charging him and five co-defendants with narco-terrorism conspiracy under 21 U.S.C. § 960a, cocaine-import conspiracy, and weapons offenses.

Maduro pleaded not guilty on January 5. The legal proceedings parallel the 1990s prosecution of Panama's Manuel Noriega, raising complex questions regarding head-of-state and official-act immunities alongside executive extraterritorial enforcement authority. Maduro filed motions to dismiss based on immunity and due process grounds, challenging both his status and the extraterritorial application of the narco-terrorism statute. Courts historically defer to the executive branch on status-based immunity while distinguishing between private and official conduct. The Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel maintained that Article II grants the President inherent authority to conduct extraterritorial operations regardless of international law constraints.

India And Russia Are Rewriting Their Defense Partnership

Eurasia Review | Nikola Mikovic

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed defense cooperation during the September 12–13 BRICS summit in New Delhi, preceding Army Chief General Dhiraj Seth’s official visit to Russia. These diplomatic exchanges signal a structural shift away from traditional buyer-seller transactions toward technology sharing and licensed domestic production.

Moscow’s reliance on traditional arms sales faces headwinds as New Delhi expands domestic manufacturing, which now accounts for approximately 65 percent of its military hardware. Concurrently, India diversifies its defense imports through partnerships with the U.S., France, and Italy while negotiating potential joint initiatives such as Rosoboronexport’s T-90MS tank co-production offer. Furthermore, the February 2025 Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics agreement permits mutual troop and asset deployments that could aid Russian naval maintenance constrained by Ukraine war losses. These dynamics afford New Delhi greater leverage to dictate the terms of its longstanding bilateral defense relationship.

The Ukraine Laboratory: How a Full-Spectrum War Is Rewriting Modern Warfighting

Small Wars Journal | Tahir Azad

Russian operations in Ukraine have transformed the European battlefield into a dense, transparent learning environment where cheap uncrewed aerial systems, commercial space imagery, and electronic warfare compress the sensor-to-shooter loop. Satellite constellations operated by Maxar Technologies alongside SpaceX’s Starlink terminals grant tactical commanders persistent intelligence and resilient battlefield connectivity.

Concealment is now nearly impossible. As a result, heavy force concentrations face rapid precision strikes, forcing formations into dispersed, dug-in infantry positions. Low-cost first-person-view quadcopters and loitering munitions radically invert traditional cost-exchange dynamics by destroying multi-million-dollar armored vehicles. Meanwhile, high-intensity missile engagements between Russian Kinzhal hypersonic weapons and Western Patriot batteries demonstrate that magazine depth and interceptor economics govern modern air defense viability. Software platforms like Palantir Technologies further accelerate targeting cycles. Concurrently, external actors like North Korea, Iran, and NATO members absorb battlefield data to adapt weapon designs, industrial production, and force doctrine.

Can A UN In Crisis Deliver With The Gulf, Gaza And Sudan In Need Of Action?

Eurasia Review | Ephrem Kossaify

World leaders are gathering for the 81st UN General Assembly as overlapping crises in the Gulf, Gaza, and Sudan compete for limited diplomatic attention. António Guterres urges action on conflict, climate, technology, and inequality while facing an open-ended institutional crisis and a successor race ahead of his December 31 departure.

Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group notes that high-level week is funded by raiding other budgets, reflecting severe financial strain despite restored US humanitarian funding. The assembly agenda notably lacks a dedicated high-level meeting on the Gulf or Iran standoff. Gaza diplomacy features narrower follow-up events, including a French-Saudi two-state session without Israel, while Sudan faces persistent inattention despite a proposed nation-wide arms embargo. Meanwhile, UNIFIL faces mandate uncertainty past December 31, 2026, and eight declared secretary-general candidates remain vague on reform.

The New World Order Is Here

Nymag | Jonah Shepp

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a proposal to make Canada the first associate member of the European Union, signaling a permanent global realignment away from the United States. President Trump's second-term policies, including threats to NATO, coercive tariffs, and a war with Iran, have transformed the U.S.

from a security guarantor into a perceived threat. Allies are actively bypassing Washington to establish new multilateral centers of gravity. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has responded to 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion worth of Canadian exports by forging the prospective E.U. partnership, imposing retaliatory tariffs, and securing trade deals with China. Similar fragmentation is visible globally as Australia pursues closer ties with Europe, Persian Gulf states weigh independent defense frameworks, and BRICS nations discuss de-dollarizing trade. Furthermore, the shuttering of USAID has accelerated the erosion of American influence, leaving impoverished nations permanently estranged and paving the way for a destabilized multipolar future.

How would AI actually ‘kill all humans’? Here are the top five most likely scenarios

The Guardian | Toby Walsh

Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigned in September 2026 over existential risks, with senior staffer Evan Hubinger estimating a greater than 10% probability that artificial intelligence causes human extinction within a decade. Advanced machine learning models threaten global security through weaponized biology, as demonstrated when Stanford University researchers utilized genetic language models to synthesize 16 new viruses for under $200,000 via commercial mail-order labs.

These bioweapon capabilities highlight systemic vulnerabilities that extend into defense architectures and command infrastructure. Cyber intrusions like the Stuxnet attack on Iranian nuclear centrifuges demonstrate how digital code breaches air-gapped systems. Machine capabilities scale rapidly without proportional governance. Automated systems also generate false military intelligence, increasing risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation and resulting global famine. Beyond direct warfare, unchecked artificial intelligence threatens state stability through automated job displacement, information space pollution, and severe political fragmentation. Mitigating these existential threats depends on maintaining human oversight and enforcement friction across dual-use technological domains.

The Hidden Agenda Behind the AI Panic

Wall Street Journal | Gabriele Mazzini

Silicon Valley executives are publicly warning about rogue artificial-intelligence agents and uncontrollable technological autonomy just as leading firms prepare for massive initial public offerings. This calculated narrative shift allows technology leaders to rebrand themselves as vigilant guardians against an impending apocalypse rather than facing scrutiny for tangible harms like privacy violations and youth mental health deterioration.

Mathematical models cannot rebel independently, and anthropomorphizing software serves primarily to obscure human errors and corporate accountability. Industry figures who financed, engineered, and deployed these systems now insist the technology is beyond their containment. Corporate self-reporting on existential threats helps deflect attention from ongoing regulatory challenges and historical harms. Leaders want society to believe they have abandoned their previous philosophy of moving fast and breaking things. This strategic whistleblowing masks commercial interests and shields developers from direct liability. Ultimately, the manufactured panic surrounding artificial intelligence obscures the real human decisions behind system deployments.

The AGI Moment Strategies and Recommendations for an Uncertain Future

Center for a New American Security | Paul Scharre

Artificial intelligence capabilities march steadily toward human-level performance, prompting diverse forecasts regarding artificial general intelligence and its profound global power implications. Proposed strategies for managing the AGI transition range from rapid competitive racing and Cold War-style deterrence to a global moratorium, reflecting fundamentally divergent assumptions about future risks and technological trajectories.

This analytical landscape maps competing worldviews from catastrophic intelligence explosion scenarios to perspectives viewing AI as a normal technology whose societal diffusion unfolds gradually over decades. Key variables such as computing power availability, proliferation rates, adoption speeds, and automated AI research capacity will ultimately drive drastically different outcomes. Understanding these foundational assumptions equips decision-makers and researchers to better navigate an uncertain future.

America’s Next Military Advantage is Trusted Data

Real Clear Defense | Jeremy Bayer

The United Kingdom and Ukraine recently established a defense AI partnership granting British researchers access to millions of images gathered from the Ukrainian battlefield, highlighting how military data now crosses borders to train foreign artificial intelligence systems at unprecedented speeds. Historically, security relied on perimeter walls, but modern defense demands balancing exclusion with secure data-sharing across allied nations, military services, classification domains, and defense contractors.

The Pentagon is actively addressing this shift through modernization initiatives like the War Data Platform and the Army's Next Generation Command common data-layer baseline. Defense firms such as Everfox and Virtru are developing specialized tools for cross-domain sharing and data-centric protection. Ultimately, future military superiority will belong to nations that can mobilize trusted information across complex networks faster than adversaries while maintaining operational security.

In the Baltics, NATO Forces Are Trying to Learn the New Way of War

Wall Street Journal | Yaroslav Trofimov

NATO forces in Latvia are actively adapting tactical lessons from the ongoing war in Ukraine while attempting to bridge significant operational readiness gaps. Canadian-led troops and allied units conduct realistic combat exercises in the Baltic pine forests, utilizing role-playing red forces to simulate modern battlefield conditions and evaluate survivability against peer adversaries.

These training deployments reflect an urgent institutional effort to modernize alliance doctrine in response to rapid technological shifts observed in Eastern Europe. However, persistent capability shortfalls continue to challenge multinational formations attempting to internalize high-intensity drone and electronic warfare realities. Military commanders must quickly address these structural vulnerabilities to ensure credible deterrence along the alliance's eastern flank as regional security tensions escalate further.

Not Only Robots: Warfare Will Still Need Humans

Real Clear Defense | Boaz Golany

Military forces are rapidly integrating artificial intelligence and autonomous systems to perform reconnaissance, strike missions, and intelligence analysis while reducing battlefield casualties. Advanced drones, autonomous boats, and ground robots now operate across active conflict zones in Ukraine and the Middle East, driven by technological leaps and public reluctance to accept military losses.

However, complex environments and ethical dilemmas ensure human soldiers remain indispensable. While space and air warfare increasingly rely on automation for high-speed data processing and swarm management, dense urban terrain, subterranean networks, and ambiguous civilian-combatant dynamics continue to reward human adaptability and moral judgment. Future force design will focus on human-machine teaming rather than total replacement. Ground warfare in particular remains hostile to autonomous systems due to degraded navigation signals and unpredictable obstacles. Ultimately, military effectiveness depends on integrating intelligent machines with personnel capable of exercising contextual awareness and legal accountability in life-and-death situations.

Refrigerators: The Next Battle Frontier?

Real Clear Defense | Timothy Maney

Recent refrigeration failures at U.S. military installations, including an incident where all freezers at Fort Huachuca went into defrost mode overnight, highlight potential vulnerabilities in military base operational technology. While these occurrences may stem from routine equipment malfunctions, they illustrate how foreign adversaries could probe critical base infrastructure below the threshold of traditional armed conflict.

Chinese state-sponsored groups like Volt Typhoon have previously infiltrated American critical infrastructure, positioning themselves for potential disruption during a crisis. Operational technology such as heating, cooling, and water systems now faces expanded digital connectivity, increasing the attack surface. Congress and the Pentagon must prioritize operational technology security alongside traditional cybersecurity to ensure installation resilience against coordinated disruptions.

The Unpopular Ones Who Were Right

Don Vandergriff | Donald Vandergriff

Military institutions reliant on process-driven, attrition-minded Second Generation warfare consistently reject reformers who champion Third Generation maneuver warfare and Mission Command. This historical pattern is driven by an institutional addiction to synchronization, compliance, and centralized control. Gerhard von Scharnhorst and Prussian military reformers recognized that armies require judgment under friction rather than clerical obedience, establishing foundational principles of Auftragstaktik that later American reformers struggled to institutionalize.

Colonel Emory Upton diagnosed systemic personnel and professional education failures in the post-Civil War American military, while Brigadier General William Mitchell faced a court-martial for exposing air power capabilities that challenged established naval and ground doctrines. Similarly, Colonel John Boyd developed energy-maneuverability theory and the OODA loop despite encountering fierce resistance from Air Force leadership. Colonel Michael D. Wyly and the Marine reform movement translated these concepts into doctrine through maneuver warfare, yet faced professional marginalization when attempting to align personnel systems with combat effectiveness. Major General John S. Wood demonstrated effective Mission Command principles within the 4th Armored Division, and civilian theorists William S. Lind and Dr. Bruce Ivar Gudmundsson further advanced maneuver doctrine despite lacking uniform or institutional protection. Ultimately, these reformers accepted professional exile rather than compromise their insights.

An AI-Driven Second Nuclear Age

Orbis | Paul Bracken

International security is entering an unstable second nuclear age driven by artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, space weapons, and major power shifts. These advanced technologies inevitably spill over into nuclear strategy by threatening mobile strategic assets, including submarines, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and leadership groups. Every nuclear-armed state is currently modernizing or expanding its arsenal, thickening the nuclear context of global affairs.

China is rapidly accelerating a massive nuclear breakout toward parity with the United States by the early 2030s. Meanwhile, Russia develops novel strategic systems while exhibiting conventional military deficiencies, illustrating the emerging danger of "half-made" militaries possessing advanced and nuclear technologies alongside operational integration flaws. Furthermore, India continues modernizing its complete nuclear triad to secure a reliable second-strike capability against regional rivals. These converging technological and structural developments present severe challenges for future nuclear stability and crisis management.

The Military Decline Since Desert Storm Is Both Physical and Mental

Spectator | Gary Anderson

Operation Desert Storm in 1991 established the peak of American military dominance through advanced precision munitions, electronic warfare, and armored superiority, yet its decisive success spawned a dangerous hubris. Politicians and military leaders embraced false assumptions that future conflicts would be brief and bloodless, enabling a steep post-Cold War peace dividend drawdown and the structural overexpansion of staffs under the Goldwater-Nichols military reform legislation.

Subsequent protracted entanglements in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran exposed profound vulnerabilities, compounded by critical shortages in precision weapons and Patriot missile stockpiles alongside severe shipbuilding constraints. Rectifying these systemic failures requires rebuilding the defense industrial base to stockpile precision guided systems, expanding naval repair capacity through allied shipyards, restoring Marine Corps readiness levels mandated by Title X, and streamlining bloated joint staffs. Without urgent structural corrections, American strategic posture remains dangerously exposed to peer competitors.

Can Donald Trump Build a Middle Eastern Shield?

National Interest | James Jay Carafano

President Donald Trump faces severe historical headwinds as he convenes Middle Eastern leaders to discuss regional security frameworks. Historical data indicates that 43 regional security initiatives announced since 1945 achieved a mere 4 percent success rate in the Middle East. Building a sustainable collective defense shield requires overcoming immense financial, industrial, and diplomatic hurdles across key states including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Jordan.

Air and missile defense requirements alone are projected between $75 billion and $250 billion over five years, demanding roughly 40 percent of major procurement spending. Furthermore, regional in-theater production accounts for under one percent of long-term needs, leaving states heavily reliant on US arms. Without explicit burden-sharing targets, indigenous low-cost interceptor programs, and direct US engagement to resolve foundational geopolitical disputes like Israel-Jordan relations, a formal regional security architecture will remain elusive.