FACT SHEET ON CHINA-MYANMAR-BANGLADESH ECONOMIC CORRIDOR

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Wilhelm Geijer, Joel von Rothkirch, Hoang An Nguyen, Jagannath Panda

China has undertaken several strategic projects to increase its role in the Bay of Bengal region and circumvent the Malacca Strait through the Belt and Road Initiative. These efforts involve substantial investments in port infrastructure and multiple new economic corridors designed to expand Beijing's regional power architecture. One of these vital initiatives is the Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar Economic Corridor, which subsequently evolved into the China-Myanmar-Bangladesh Economic Corridor following Indian disengagement from the cooperative framework.

This evolving economic infrastructure forms a core component of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs research project examining Beijing's expanding power projection across South Asia and the broader Indian Ocean region. These developments directly alter regional connectivity patterns and reshape long-term geopolitical alignments along critical maritime corridors.

Strait up tolls? What a Hormuz precedent means for the world’s waterways

Australian Strategic Policy Institute | Elizabeth Buchanan, Adel Abdel Ghafar

The US–Iran War has triggered negotiations to keep the Strait of Hormuz toll-free, raising concerns that a potential transit fee could establish a dangerous global precedent. This development threatens to disrupt international maritime trade norms and directly impact Australian supply chains. Consequently, regional waterways face unprecedented economic and strategic pressures.

Historically, the dissolution of agreed international laws and maritime principles has accelerated the erosion of free passage. If a Hormuz toll is implemented, it could legitimise similar transit fees in other critical choke points. These include the Malacca Strait, the South China Sea, and the Bering Strait. Global trade faces fragmentation. Such a shift would allow coastal states to monetise sovereign access, fundamentally altering the economics of global shipping. Ultimately, this precedent risks transforming open maritime commons into contested, revenue-generating zones, complicating naval operations, energy security, and resource supply chains worldwide.

How China’s Leader Plans to Win the Future With A.I.

The New York Times | Vivian Wang

Chinese President Xi Jinping is mobilizing state resources to dominate global artificial intelligence development and restructure the domestic economy through advanced robotics and high-end manufacturing. State-led funds poured over $184 billion into Chinese A.I. firms between 2000 and 2023, with government and state-owned banks pledging hundreds of billions more.

Beijing seeks to offset lower private investment compared to the United States, which saw private sources pour $285 billion into the technology in 2025 alone. A dedicated technology park outside Beijing exemplifies this top-down approach, providing tens of millions of dollars in free computing power to local developers. Supported firms produce critical dual-use technologies, including specialized chips designed for nuclear missiles and medical brain implants. Beijing prioritizes state-directed industrial policy. By leveraging centralized resource allocation, China aims to establish artificial intelligence as a lead driver of national competitiveness while maintaining strict administrative and social control over emerging technological capabilities across society.

Gauging the Influence of China’s PLA over the Ruling Junta in Myanmar

Institute for Security and Development Policy | Mark S. Cogan

China provides a critical lifeline for Myanmar's ruling military regime following the 2021 coup, yet this political influence does not extend to the People's Liberation Army, which operates primarily along the shared border. Cross-border trade has diminished between Yunnan and Myanmar administrative regions, while state-sanctioned criminal organizations operating scam center compounds in border areas have created significant regional security challenges.

These pressures prompted Beijing's tacit approval of Operation 1027 in late 2023, an offensive involving 15,000 fighters from ethnic armed organizations. The PLA conducts periodic armed patrols and live-fire exercises through the Southern Theater Command to deter conflict escalation and protect Chinese nationals. Meanwhile, security cooperation and mediation are driven by state officials, such as Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Deng Xijun and Ministry of Public Security representatives, rather than the Central Military Commission. This institutional separation reflects strict Chinese Communist Party control and an effort to avoid the military-commercial entanglement seen in neighboring states.

How to Reach an AI Arms Control Deal With China

Council on Foreign Relations | Chris McGuire

United States AI laboratories currently maintain a six-to-twelve-month lead over Chinese competitors, but growing risks of uncontrolled frontier models are driving calls for a bilateral artificial intelligence safety agreement. Negotiating arms control while two unequal powers actively compete for strategic dominance remains historically unprecedented. Historical precedents like the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty demonstrate that bilateral technology agreements only succeed after the trailing state concludes it cannot win the race.

China currently produces just 1 to 4 percent of its required AI computing power natively, relying on smuggled and remotely accessed American microchips to stay competitive. Beijing must realize it cannot win. Consequently, Washington must aggressively close semiconductor export control loopholes to expand its operational lead prior to enacting domestic safety regulations. Maintaining a decisive technological advantage will ultimately enable unilateral technical verification of Chinese compliance via advanced national technical capabilities without compromising sensitive intelligence infrastructure.

10 Points on Chinese Strategic Approach to India

Newreckk | Staff Writer

China prioritises its eastern maritime domain and the Pacific Ocean as its primary strategic direction to counter the United States, positioning South Asia as a secondary theatre. Beijing views the Indian Ocean through a competitive lens, arguing that New Delhi cooperates with Washington to constrain Chinese maritime access.

Furthermore, Beijing encounters friction within multilateral platforms like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, where Indian resistance challenges Chinese efforts to reshape global governance. Bilaterally, Chinese assessments dismiss India as a minor economic partner representing under three percent of overall trade, while maintaining the China-Pakistan axis primarily to keep New Delhi contained. Beijing leverages regional partnerships across Central Asia, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to deter American power projection globally. Consequently, this asymmetric framework treats India primarily as a secondary obstacle managed through localized containment and multilateral friction.

Saudi Arabia is Losing The War Against the Houthis: Military Pressure, Oil Vulnerability, Fragile Alliances, and the Search for an Exit

Geopolitical Insight

Saudi Arabia faces mounting strategic vulnerabilities as Houthi forces execute deep strikes against energy infrastructure, threatening critical East-West oil pipelines and disrupting crude exports to Europe in October 2026. Crucial maritime chokepoints including Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz remain entirely outside Saudi military control. Alternative export routes through the Suez Canal or Oman’s Port of Sohar fail to mitigate risks to internal refining facilities.

The conflict has exposed the structural limits of Western security guarantees in the Middle East. External allies demonstrate clear reluctance to engage in a prolonged Yemeni campaign. Washington negotiated a separate agreement in Muscat to protect American shipping, while Islamabad deployed 8,000 troops strictly in defensive roles. Meanwhile, Ankara avoids direct intervention, and Tel Aviv limits support to intelligence sharing. Regional alliances are fraying rapidly. Without external intervention or secure infrastructure, Riyadh faces severe economic and operational paralysis.

Mohammed bin Salman: The Spoiled Crown Prince Who Envisions a Kingdom of Fantasies

Geopolitical Insight

Saudi Arabia faces severe economic and strategic vulnerabilities driven by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and his unrealized Vision 2030 megaprojects. Riyadh continues to rely heavily on American security guarantees and external alliances with Washington, Tel Aviv, and Abu Dhabi while struggling to manage conflicts in Yemen and navigate deep regional tensions with Iran and the Houthis.

This heavy dependence on external hegemony masks a fragile domestic financial foundation and an unstable leadership style that risks alienating traditional partners. Without establishing direct accommodations with regional adversaries, the kingdom's centralized governance model remains exposed to severe geopolitical shocks. Riyadh must eventually balance its modernization ambitions with the gritty realities of Middle Eastern politics to secure its long-term survival.

Why Are Saudi Arabia and the Houthis at War Again/Still?

Wars and Conflicts of the World

Saudi Arabia intercepted a ballistic missile targeting Riyadh as renewed hostilities escalated between the kingdom and the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen. The conflict stems from a complex history originating in the 1990s with the Zaydi Shiite community's religious identity and the subsequent Sa’dah Insurgency against President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Following the 2011 Arab Spring, Houthi forces captured Sanaa, prompting a Saudi-led military intervention in March 2015 that evolved into a protracted stalemate. Iran supplied the Houthis with advanced missiles and drones, transforming a local guerrilla movement into a force capable of striking infrastructure across the Arabian Peninsula. The current resurgence is driven by Iranian efforts to restrict the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, intertwining the Yemeni conflict with broader Middle Eastern wars and threatening the global economy.

Google’s Empire Under the Pacific

Expeditionary Capitalist | Sean Harper

Google operates over 80,000 kilometers of undersea cable across the Pacific basin, functioning as a critical US strategic communications asset controlled by a private corporation amid intensifying great-power competition. Thirteen distinct cable systems connect 37 landing points across 16 territories, with massive new projects like the 20,354 km Bulikula route expanding network capacity while transitioning away from early international consortium models toward sole corporate ownership.

Satellite constellations such as Starlink provide only a tiny fraction of intercontinental data volume compared to high-capacity subsea lines, leaving island territories vulnerable to prolonged isolation during cable outages. Washington exercises direct oversight over this infrastructure through mandatory National Security Agreements, which grant US authorities a 24-hour kill switch, require domestic network operations centers, and compel the diversification of Asian interconnection points following rejected Hong Kong landing bids. Furthermore, severe maintenance bottlenecks plague the vast basin, leaving only seventeen cable ships available across the entire region to service extensive wet infrastructure vulnerable to natural disasters or hostile interdiction.

Almost unbelievably, the US is planning to pull large numbers of troops out of Europe

Telegraph | Hamish de Bretton-Gordon

United States plans to withdraw 25,000 troops from Europe, following a prior reduction of 5,000 personnel, as Russia contemplates a fresh mobilization involving hundreds of thousands of additional soldiers. This apparent shift in Washington coincides with mounting domestic political pressure in Britain over defense spending, where critics argue that welfare commitments continue to outweigh security requirements.

Moscow is meanwhile intensifying its hybrid campaign across European states through drone incursions, cyberattacks, and sabotage operations designed to test Western resolve. Ukraine demonstrates continued battlefield resilience around Lyman alongside large-scale drone strikes reaching Moscow, proving that Russian military power remains susceptible to degradation. Western hesitation risks undermining credible deterrence just as the Kremlin calculates that time favors its protracted war economy. Maintaining regional security requires consistent political will, robust capabilities, and steadfast alliance commitments to prevent further strategic erosion across the continent.

Every American Aircraft Lost or Damaged During the Iran War

Real Clear Defense | Ian Ellis-Jones

The United States military faces documented losses and structural damage to its airpower assets following direct engagements during the Iran war. Newly compiled assessments from the Pentagon and Congressional Budget Office, integrated alongside open-source intelligence, provide a comprehensive accounting of the aircraft impacted throughout the theater. These detailed visualizations quantify the attrition sustained by American tactical aviation and support platforms operating within hostile airspace.

The accumulation of these losses highlights the operational friction and attrition risks inherent in modern high-intensity aerospace campaigns against sophisticated regional missile and air defense networks. Consequently, planners must contend with the compounding costs of aircraft attrition when sustaining protracted air operations over heavily contested territories.

Every American Aircraft Lost Or Damaged During The Iran War, Visualized

TWZ | Ian Ellis-Jones

United States military aircraft losses and damage during Operation Epic Fury against Iran have exceeded $3.3 billion, according to recent Pentagon Lead Inspector General and Congressional Budget Office reports. Unmanned aerial vehicles bore the primary burden, with at least 47 MQ-9A Reaper drones destroyed alongside an MQ-4C Triton and an MQ-1.

This rapid attrition drastically reduced active inventory. Operational strain extended to crewed fleets, resulting in the destruction or crippling of two KC-135 Stratotankers, four F-15E Strike Eagles, an E-3G Sentry, two MC-130J Commando IIs, four MH-6 Little Birds, and multiple helicopters. A combat search and rescue mission deep inside Iranian territory alone cost over $400 million in lost aircraft. Furthermore, the conflict has depleted between one-half and two-thirds of critical U.S. air defense missile inventories, including Patriot, THAAD, and Standard Missile stockpiles. Theater commanders warn this expenditure severely compromises combat readiness for potential Pacific conflicts, requiring at least five years to replenish industrial reserves.

Daily Memo: Fallout of Tightening US Sanctions on Iran

Geopolitical Futures

Several countries have suspended flights operated by Iranian airlines following a U.S. announcement that all Iranian air operators would be shut down on Sept. 23. Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Oman are among the regional nations that have canceled flights as part of tightening U.S. sanctions targeting companies continuing commercial operations with Tehran.

This aviation clampdown serves as an immediate litmus test for secondary enforcement, measuring how effectively Washington can compel third-party compliance through extraterritorial economic pressure. Aviation restrictions isolate Iran further, disrupting regional transport corridors and forcing neighboring governments to navigate escalating secondary compliance pressures. These sweeping sanctions underscore Washington's persistent reliance on aviation blockades as an extraterritorial instrument to enforce economic isolation on Tehran without direct military engagement.

American power, AI and a walkout - key moments from Trump's UN speech

BBC | Sarah Smith, Bernd Debusmann Jr, Khashayar Joneidi, Nada Tawfik

US President Donald Trump delivered an address at the United Nations General Assembly, asserting an "America First" foreign policy backed by military force. Trump threatened the rapid annihilation of Iran if Tehran fails to negotiate a bilateral peace agreement, while predicting potential progress following the November midterm elections.

The speech underscored a return to unilateral coercive diplomacy. During the address, Cuba's delegation walked out after Trump described the island nation as a failing state under maximum economic and political pressure. Beyond high-stakes diplomatic warnings, Washington finalized a tripartite security agreement with Denmark and Greenland. The pact authorises two new American military bases in Greenland to reinforce NATO's northern deterrence posture in the Arctic region. It resolved months of alliance friction. Additionally, Trump rejected government regulation of artificial intelligence, advocating instead for unrestricted technological development under the rebranded moniker "Super Intelligence."

Europe’s new AI edge? The emerging application layer opportunity

McKinsey | Julien Gagnon, Nick Padgett, Ruben Schaubroeck, Amy Tong, Karyna Iusupova, Kath Easthope, Phill Robinson

European technology companies are positioning themselves to capture significant economic value by focusing on the AI application layer as enterprises shift from model experimentation to workflow redesign. Proprietary funding analysis from Dealroom, PitchBook, and Gain reveals that European start-ups focused on the application layer reached 44 percent of comparable US funding levels in the first half of 2026, up from 11 percent in 2018, while vertical AI applications surged to 67 percent of US levels.

North America attracted 71 percent of the €835 billion raised between January 2025 and June 2026, compared to Europe's 10 percent and Asia's 16 percent. Structural enablers include reversing talent flows, proactive university commercialization, corporate co-investment, and patient sovereign capital. High-performing start-ups utilize five operating practices, including AI-accelerated R&D velocity and value-based commercial models, to navigate a capital-constrained environment. Founders must deeply embed products into enterprise systems of record, specialize in industrial ecosystems, and pursue multimarket approaches.

Understanding Russia’s Role in Latin America

Rand | Elina Treyger, Samantha Perez Davila

Russia maintains active engagement across Latin America and the Caribbean despite facing sweeping international isolation and stretched resources following its February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Deepening diplomatic and strategic ties with key regional partners help Moscow marshal Global South support for its anti-Western vision and unlawful territorial claims.

This regional activism demonstrates that ongoing military commitments do not preclude Moscow from projecting influence far from home. Opportunistic diplomatic maneuvers across the Western Hemisphere concurrently challenge U.S. security interests. Washington must consequently evaluate these regional activities holistically alongside concurrent Chinese and Iranian influence. Comprehensive threat assessments must also account for direct connections between hemispheric developments and domestic U.S. security. Policymakers face compounding strategic friction as Moscow leverages bilateral partnerships to counter Western pressure.

Why Is Russia Not Bombing Kiev Into Oblivion?

Zlatti 71

Russian military forces deployed in Ukraine field over 600,000 troops, thousands of tanks, and advanced missile stockpiles while launching up to 144 strike drones per day. Moscow's strategic adaptation centers on industrial-scale drone production, deep artillery superiority firing up to 20,000 shells daily, and modernized precision systems designed to defeat Western air defenses.

This massive conventional capacity raises strategic questions regarding why Russian forces have not leveled the Ukrainian capital. Instead of total urban destruction, Russian high-command operations leverage weapons like the Iskander-M, hypersonic Kinzhal, and Mach 10 Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile as tactical instruments and strategic signaling mechanisms against European NATO allies. Russian tactics favor long-term attrition over rapid total destruction. Meanwhile, domestic factories like Uralvagonzavod produce 300 T-90M Proryv tanks annually, outstripping European industrial output. Consequently, Western air defenses struggle against retuned Iskander guidance software, while Russian forces continue leveraging economic resilience and weaponized mass to wear down Ukrainian positions.

Military Review, September-October 2026, v. 106, no. 5

  Military Review, September-October 2026, v. 106, no. 5 

• The Benning Revolution 2.0: Upgrading Army PME to Close the Adaptation Gap
• Command Without Control: Mission Command in the Age of Artificial Intelligence
• The Army’s Work-Life Balance Problem: Research with Senior Leaders
• Thinking Differently About Army Suicide: A Social Diagnosis
• When Delivery Success Fails: Why Time Must Define Authority in Military Networks
• The Shape of the Fight: Using LiDAR and Fractal Geometry to Quantify Urban Complexity
• The Assurance War: How Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United States Are Facing Digital Insurgency
• Artificial Intelligence and Professional Authorship: Ownership of Thought When the Machine Is Off
• Understanding Death Is the Best Way to Prevent It: Postmortem Data Is a Strategic Enabler for the Joint Force
• The Hidden Casualty Load: Integrating Dental Emergencies into Large-Scale Combat Operations Planning
• Operational Art in LSCO: Forging Deterrence by Denial on the Amazon Frontier
• Tradition and Transformation: Forging Strategically Minded, Globally Competent Officers
• Intellectually Nurturing the Warfighters the Nation Needs
• Remembering 9/11

Economic War via the Destruction of Energy Infrastucture

Delwinstrategy

Russia is executing a multidimensional strategy to collapse Ukraine's economy by systematically targeting critical energy infrastructure, including 750kV substations and nuclear output capacity. This economic warfare aims to overcome stubborn domestic political resistance and force a favorable regime change through population exodus, enterprise shutdowns, and unbearable reconstruction costs.

European financial and military assistance currently amounts to 46 percent of the Ukrainian state budget, yet a massive uncovered financing gap of $25 to $40 billion per annum looms for 2026 as grid damage erodes tax revenues. Ukraine faces a severe generational deficit and lacks the deep-strike capacity to inflict reciprocal damage on the Russian economy. Moscow calculates that protracted financial exhaustion, combined with potential political fatigue across key European partner countries ahead of 2027 elections, will compel Kyiv to accept unfavorable terms regarding security guarantees and foreign troop presences.

The Stalemate With Iran Is Not Sustainable

Foreign Affairs | Richard Haass, Carolyn Kissane

Iran and the United States have engaged in a six-month war that has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking twenty percent of global liquefied natural gas transit and a higher share of oil trade. While this conflict has triggered global energy shortages and price increases, both nations have avoided devastating attacks on critical Gulf energy infrastructure.

This precarious operational equilibrium has allowed international markets to temporarily stabilize despite severe supply disruptions. The current stalemate is highly unstable. Although Washington and Tehran have restricted their targeting to prevent total economic collapse, the underlying geopolitical tensions remain unresolved. A comprehensive diplomatic strategy is urgently required to end the hostilities before an accidental miscalculation triggers catastrophic infrastructure damage. Ultimately, the prolonged closure of this vital maritime chokepoint threatens to exhaust global energy buffers, disrupt international supply chains, and trigger a direct, highly destructive military confrontation between the primary combatants.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says basic math skills ‘don’t matter’ in AI era

The American Bazaar | Nileena Sunil

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang defended the decline of basic mathematical skills in the artificial intelligence era during a recent interview on the Ezra Klein Show. Addressing a Chinese study of 26,000 students that linked early AI adoption to deteriorating cognitive performance, Huang argued that losing traditional skills like long division and multiplication tables does not matter.

Basic math is being forgotten. This perspective reflects a broader industry shift toward systems thinking, where automated tools manage routine calculations to free human cognitive capacity for higher-level problem-solving. However, critics warn that relying on AI companions and automated systems degrades essential intellectual dexterity and social skills among younger demographics. Despite these concerns, the rapid advancement of large language models continues to accelerate automation. Huang recently declared the arrival of artificial general intelligence following OpenAI's launch of GPT-6 Astra. This technological milestone intensifies the global debate over cognitive offloading and long-term educational standards.

Can AI Be Regulated?

Foreign Policy | Cameron Abadi, Adam Tooze

The U.S. federal government faces intensifying public pressure to regulate artificial intelligence, exposing a deep rift within Silicon Valley over the technology's catastrophic risks. While closed-model developers OpenAI and Anthropic advocate for federal oversight to pace the frontier, open-source proponents like Meta and Nvidia reject new strictures. This division reflects divergent commercial strategies, where closed-system advocates seek to mitigate liability and secure national champion status, while hardware providers aim to maximize compute demand.

Currently, AI spending by hyper-scalers runs between $150 billion and $200 billion per quarter, driving 36 percent of all U.S. business investment. A market reset remains a distinct possibility. Retrospective financial compensation under standard negligence law cannot address extinction-level events or systemic financial instability. Pockets of technical proficiency exist within DARPA and the National Security Agency, but keeping pace with rapid machine learning developments remains a daunting challenge for federal regulators.

Our Generals Are Not Even Good at Tactics: A Hard-Hitting Reply to Gary Anderson

Donvandergriff | Donald Vandergriff

United States military general and flag officers suffer from deep systemic failures rooted in careerism and risk aversion rather than true tactical excellence. American military leadership exhibits institutional deficiencies that stem from the rigid 'up-or-out' promotion model. This legacy system rewards conformity, PowerPoint presentations, and upward management over actual tactical, operational, and strategic adaptability under stress.

Restructuring the officer corps requires dividing personnel into distinct command, staff, and technical tracks evaluated through rigorous wargames and tactical decision games. Replacing the conveyor belt of promotion with performance-based retention and downsizing headquarters by 25 to 40 percent would restore mission command and moral character. Military institutions must cultivate true strength of character, termed Charakterstärke, to prioritize operational reality over careerist compliance and ensure combat effectiveness across future warfare environments.

Military-Backed Militias Reemerge in Myanmar's Civil War

The Jamestown Foundation | Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan

The Myanmar military’s decision to revive the Pyusawhti militia to counter pro-democracy resistance forces following the 2021 military coup has remained an understudied aspect of Myanmar’s civil war, as the overstretched military relies on these locally armed groups in Bamar-dominated regions. These armed militias function as vigilantes and intelligence gatherers, deliberately using tactics such as arson, extortion, forced conscription, and targeted killings against non-combatants to spread fear and sever insurgent supply lines.

Reconstituted across Mandalay and various townships in regions such as Sagaing, Magway, and Mandalay, the militia draws its ranks from military veterans, retired civil servants, Ma Ba Tha monks, and supporters of the Union Solidarity and Development Party. Operating as auxiliaries to the Tatmadaw, these groups support the Four Cuts strategy by maintaining constant surveillance, manning village cordons, and enforcing conscription. As long as the military continues to rely on proxy violence rather than negotiated solutions, the cycle of displacement, fear, and retribution is likely to persist across Myanmar’s rural heartland.

When Technology Rewrites the Army: Russia, Ukraine and the New Art of War

Chandragupta | KAUTILYA THE CONTEMPLATOR

Weapon systems in the Ukraine conflict are changing faster than the battlefield, forcing both Russia and Ukraine to transition from tactical improvisation to institutional military reorganization. Ukraine created its Unmanned Systems Forces in 2024, followed by Russia establishing its Unmanned Systems Troops in 2025, turning drones from distributed capabilities into permanent military institutions.

Persistent UAV surveillance and electronic warfare have created extreme battlefield transparency, rendering large armor concentrations vulnerable and making operational breakthroughs elusive through attrition alone. This modern structural adaptation mirrors the 1950s Soviet creation of the Strategic Rocket Forces under Marshal Kirill Moskalenko, when intercontinental ballistic missiles demanded a dedicated institutional framework rather than integration into existing aviation or artillery branches. While technological advantage remains finite as adversaries develop rapid countermeasures, establishing dedicated training schools, specialist officer corps, and procurement systems provides a cumulative organizational advantage designed to systematically generate continuous military adaptations.

Command Failure, Not Combat Defeat: How Bab al-Mandab Fell to the Houthis, and Iran Gained a Second Strait

The Horizon Brief | Ibrahim Jalal

On September 9, 2026, Houthi forces captured Al-Mocha and surrounding coastal territory along Yemen's Western Axis, effectively securing control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The strategic collapse resulted from intelligence infiltration, decapitating strike operations at Jabal al-Nar, and a forged withdrawal command broadcast via radio, SMS, and cloned voice audio across fragmented Yemeni government forces.

Rather than superior combat power, structural command-and-control breakdown enabled a rapid pullout, allowing a modest Houthi detachment to occupy Al-Mocha without resistance. Consequently, Tehran secured a second maritime leverage point alongside the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi forces expanded their sea-denial footprint across Mayyun, Zuqar, and Huniash islands using direct fire, explosive uncrewed vessels, and naval mines. Command failure enabled this disastrous collapse. This control alters Red Sea shipping security while granting the Houthis immense political and economic leverage in Yemen's stalled conflict. Moving forward, Houthi commanders are likely to leverage these gains for further operational expansion towards Marib and Shabwa before September 21.

Drones are Overrated

Operational Art of War

Unmanned aerial vehicles do not represent a revolutionary military affairs shift in modern conflict, despite widespread claims regarding their battlefield impact. The historical evolution of military technology demonstrates that true revolutions require systems to be simultaneously cheap, lethal, and robust. Civilian off-the-shelf quadcopters deployed in Ukraine deliver surveillance and improvised munitions capability at low cost, yet their operational utility remains constrained by vulnerability to countermeasures.

Comprehensive military analysis reveals that incremental weapons improvements consistently integrate into broader all-arms packages rather than single-handedly altering warfare. Previous historical precedents, such as the introduction of the Halberd or HMS Dreadnought, fundamentally restructured battlefield dynamics by rendering entire weapon classes entirely obsolete. Modern COTS drones function as supplementary tactical tools rather than transforming foundational military architecture. Continued technological adaptation on contemporary battlefields will likely force these systems to evolve within existing defensive frameworks.