DANIEL PEREIRA
Executive Summary
1. Hypersonic Revolution: Hypersonic vehicles, traveling at speeds beyond Mach 5, promise to redefine aerospace and defense sectors. Their potential lies in rapid response, reconnaissance, and even commercial air travel, but they also present aerodynamic and control challenges.
2. Cross-border Collaborations: Hypersonic research isn’t limited by national boundaries. Collaborations, especially between technologically advanced nations like the US and China, can accelerate breakthroughs and pool resources.
3. China’s Hypersonic Strategy: China’s focus on hypersonic technologies over the past decade is strategic. They view these vehicles as potential game-changers, capable of neutralizing advanced defense systems of adversaries.
4. DF-ZF Hypersonic Glide Vehicle: Central to China’s hypersonic endeavors, the DF-ZF can glide and maneuver at Mach 5+ speeds. Its potential to deliver nuclear and conventional warheads while evading missile defenses poses global security challenges.
5. Starry Sky-2 Waverider’s Milestone: Successfully tested in 2018, this experimental wave rider can harness shock waves from its flight, achieving Mach 5.5 speeds and reaching altitudes of 30 km.
6. Strategic Global Implications: China’s hypersonic advancements challenge existing missile defense systems. Entities like the Pentagon are reevaluating defense strategies, viewing China’s progress as a potential global defense destabilizer.
7. Global Response: The absence of international treaties on hypersonic weapons and China’s rapid advancements have spurred major powers to accelerate their hypersonic programs.
8. Research Methodology: The analysis was based on a dataset of 1800 papers with “hypersonic vehicle” in the title or abstract, highlighting collaborations between US universities and Chinese affiliations.
9. Key Chinese Research Affiliations: Institutions like the National University of Defense Technology and Beihang University are leading China’s hypersonic research, covering areas from aerodynamics to control systems.
10. Collaborative Research Themes: Joint US-Chinese research has identified themes such as hypersonic dynamics, control mechanisms, adaptive systems, and electromagnetic interactions.
11. Potential Collaboration Risks: Collaborations in sensitive areas like hypersonic technologies raise concerns about foreign influence, espionage, and potential covert objectives.
12. Implications of Shared Research: Collaborative findings might inadvertently bolster China’s hypersonic weapons programs, potentially giving them a strategic advantage.
13. Technology Transfer Concerns: Collaborative projects risk inadvertent technology transfers, potentially compromising sensitive technologies or methodologies.
14. Blurred Boundaries: The line between academic research and defense applications in hypersonics is increasingly ambiguous, raising concerns about the potential misuse of shared knowledge.
15. Socio-Political Implications: Collaborations in sensitive domains might erode trust among U.S. allies and lead to potential domestic and international political backlash.
16. AI and Hypersonics: The convergence of AI with hypersonic technologies, as seen in collaborative research, promises enhanced performance but also raises strategic concerns.
17. Strategic Trust Erosion: Regular collaborations in sensitive domains might erode trust among U.S. allies, questioning the U.S.’s commitment to safeguarding technologies with collective defense implications.
18. Future Considerations: As hypersonic research continues to evolve, a balanced approach is essential to ensure that academic collaborations do not compromise global security and trust
19. Conclusion: Collaborative research on hypersonic vehicles between the US and China underscores the delicate balance between academic pursuit and national security. Policymakers, researchers, and institutions must navigate this complex landscape with foresight and responsibility.
20. Recommendation: While fostering collaboration and knowledge sharing, it’s crucial to implement stringent safeguards to prevent potential misuse of shared knowledge and ensure global peace and security.
AI and Hypersonics: Regular readers of the OODA Loop know that we cover exponential technologies daily and we expect disproportionately disruption where these technologies start to converge. For example
: AI + Bio-Tech or Robotics + AI. Add the convergence of AI with hypersonic technologies to the following list – which we will be tracking along with other promising convergences in the following areas:
- Quantum Tech: This is the ultimate in first principles engineering. With new insights into how the quantum world works this is becoming a foundational science for all other engineering disciplines. Quantum Computing may be a decade away, but quantum engineering is a reality today resulting in more powerful microelectronics, more capable sensors, and improved cybersecurity solutions.
- Bio-Tech: Until this day, all biological science was based on observation and experimentation. New BioTech enables the application of engineering principles to life itself. In 2024 we expect Bio-Tech to continue to improve health and pharmaceutical outcomes and to start disrupting fields such as mining, manufacturing, agriculture, and energy. Watch for mainstreaming of Brain Machine Interfaces towards the end of the year.
- Narrow AI: The next year will bring more sophisticated narrow AI applications like OpenAI’s ChatGPT into areas like healthcare diagnostics, marketing, and customer service. Employee disruption is already well underway. Companies, governments, and individuals will adopt or not (“Adopt or you’re toast”).
- General AI: General AI is a term used to describe technology so sophisticated that it can solve things across multiple domains, like a human. We do not believe reaching a General AI is a simple binary event. We will more likely see a continued improvement in multiple AI tools in 2024. Prepare to be amazed.
- Advanced Robotics and Automation: The most advanced robots are giving physical form to AI. In 2024 we expect to see humanoid robots in manufacturing and warehousing. In 2025 some of your neighbors will have them in their homes.. Autonomous vehicles and drones are posed to disrupt transportation and logistics.
- Materials Science: Innovations in materials science, particularly in additive manufacturing and 3D printing, will lead to more sustainable and efficient manufacturing processes across multiple industries in 2024. The cost of capital to modernize industries is inflationary, but the ability to manufacture in new ways with automation is a long-term deflationary trend.
- AR, VR, and the Metaverse: Augmented and virtual reality technologies are becoming more immersive, making the metaverse a more integral part of entertainment, education, and remote work. The Apple Vision Pro is the latest in a long evolution of these technologies.
- Space Technologies: In the coming year we will witness new milestones in space technology, opening new avenues for pharmaceutical production, earth observation, telecommunications, and human space travel.
- Blockchain and Distributed Ledger Technologies: OODA has been tracking this domain closely and sees the foundations being laid for new applications across multiple aspects of society. Solutions will accelerate in domains like finance, healthcare, security, supply chain management and even voting systems. One measure of potential disruption in this domain is the number of developers creating blockchain-based solutions. There were 22,000 blockchain developers in the US in 2022. By the end of 2024, we expect that number to more than double.
In this on-demand, archived OODA Loop webinar, OODA network expert Chris Ward provides insights into changes in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) region including new shifts in missions, organizational changes, funding priorities and insights into key allied funding streams of interest to defense contractors and regional experts.
It is worth highlighting and reinforcing how notions of trust are framed in this report:
15. Socio-Political Implications: Collaborations in sensitive domains might erode trust among U.S. allies and lead to potential domestic and international political backlash.
17. Strategic Trust Erosion: Regular collaborations in sensitive domains might erode trust among U.S. allies, questioning the U.S.’s commitment to safeguarding technologies with collective defense implications.
18. Future Considerations: As hypersonic research continues to evolve, a balanced approach is essential to ensure that academic collaborations do not compromise global security and trust.
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